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Между хайпом и реальностью: объем мирового рынка генеративного ИИ в 2024 году с прогнозом до 2032 года

Привет, Хабр! Меня зовут Алексей Мартынов, я аналитик-эксперт, руководитель направления методологии продуктового маркетинга в компании «Цифрум» (Росатом). Представляю своего соавтора — Дениса Ларинова, эксперта в области нейроморфных вычислений, руководителя отдела ИИ компании «Цифрум» (Росатом). Мы расскажем о том, что такое генеративный искусственный интеллект, с какими задачами он справляется и как может (или не может) изменить наш мир. А еще представим наши расчеты с прогнозом о том, как использование этой технологии повлияет на экономику России.

Что такое генеративный ИИ и как он работает

Генеративный искусственный интеллект — часть искусственного интеллекта (ИИ, англ. artificial Intelligence, AI), которая использует статистические методы и машинное обучение для создания контента с помощью имитации данных, на которых был обучен [6, 7, 8].

В идеальном сценарии генеративные модели, обученные на огромных массивах информации, сжимают ее и извлекают суть без утраты смысла. При этом эмоциональность, скрытый подтекст и прочие важные в работе детали генеративный ИИ может упустить.

Для обработки и генерации текста языковая модель использует базовую единицу информации — токен. Он может быть словом или его частью, или даже группой слов в зависимости от того, как модель была обучена разделять и интерпретировать текст.

С точки зрения длины в зависимости от языка:

1 токен ~= 4 символа в английском языке ~= 0,75 слова,

1 токен ~= 2,3 символа в русском языке ~= 0,46 слова,

1 токен ~= 0,5 символа в китайском языке,

1 токен ~= 0,8 символа в японском языке [9, 10].

Например, GPT-4 Turbo (мультимодальная большая языковая модель, созданная OpenAI) с контекстным окном на 128 тысяч токенов составляет около 300 тыс. символов на русском языке. Предельное количество символов в рамках одного сеанса работы генеративного ИИ определяет границу эффективного применения ), свыше которого информация моделью не учитывается, то есть контекст имеет ограниченную длину.

Как эффективно использовать генеративный ИИ

Генеративный ИИ в настоящее время малоэффективен в сложных, многомерных и многовекторных проектах, в которых присутствуют динамические связи, где необходимо учитывать целостную картину и наследование опыта. Тенденция к повышению возможностей генеративного ИИ в части усложнения решаемых задач очевидна: в 2024 г. ожидается всплеск работы генеративных моделей с видео (например, посредством GPT5).

С точки зрения генеративного ИИ достоверность ресурса, скорее всего, будет определяться не его авторитетностью, а количеством цитирований или копирований. В связи с этим возникает риск получения информации из источника низкого качества.

Генеративный ИИ часто «придумывает» ответы. Кембриджский словарь английского языка (англ. Cambridge Dictionary) даже назвал глагол «галлюцинировать» словом 2023 г. в контексте генеративного ИИ. ChatGPT, например, придумал несколько прецедентов из юридической практики, на основе которых выстраивалась позиция адвоката в США [11]. Поэтому, прежде чем использовать генеративный ИИ, стоит сначала проверить его ответ.

Генеративный ИИ полезен в задачах, где нужен конкретный ответ на одномерный и четко поставленный вопрос. Также с помощью этой технологии можно быстро ознакомиться с новой темой или составить сводку текста, видео или аудио.

Какие компании внедрили генеративный ИИ и не прогадали

Конгломерат Morgan Stanley внедрил для своих 16 тыс. финансовых консультантов ассистент AI @ Morgan Stanley (кастомизированное решение, основанное на GPT-4 от OpenAI). Это позволило сэкономить время, которое сотрудники тратили на решение вопросов, связанных с рынками, рекомендациями и внутренними процессами. Таким образом консультанты смогли направить больше ресурсов на обслуживание клиентов и ускорить оказание услуг на 14%. Сейчас Morgan Stanley тестирует другие системы с генеративным искусственным интеллектом: инструмент под названием Debrief, например, автоматически обобщает содержание встреч с клиентами и генерирует последующие электронные письма [1, 2, 3].

Сервис Netflix сделал ставку на внедрение технологий искусственного интеллекта. Сегодня у компании один из самых низких показателей оттока клиентов — всего 3,5%. Алгоритм Cinematch отслеживает все явные и неявные данные по 223 млн пользователей и повышает общую удовлетворенность клиентов. Стратегия Netflix заключается в том, чтобы изменить формирование и представление контента, используя генеративный ИИ при написании сценариев, создании мультфильмов, кастомной генерации превью [4, 5] и т.д.

Все это доказывает, что генеративный ИИ можно применять не только в науке, но и в более практических сферах.

Настоящее и будущее генеративного ИИ в мире

На граф. 1 представлена оценка авторов глобального рынка генеративного ИИ, CAGR (совокупный среднегодовой темп роста) составляет 26,4% на промежутке 2023 – 2032 гг.

Около 29,7% мирового рынка генеративного ИИ реализуется на архитектуре генеративно-состязательных сетей (англ. generative adversarial network, сокращённо GAN), 37,5% — трансформеров (англ. transformers), 14,8% — вариационных автоэнкодеров (англ. variational auto-encoder, сокращенно VAE), 10,1% — диффузионных моделей (англ. diffusion networks), 7,9% — других моделей:например, моделей на основе потоков (англ. flow-based generative model) или авторегрессионных моделей (англ. autoregressive models). Указанное распределение актуально на 2024 г. и будет меняться под давлением новых архитектур нейронных сетей [12,13, 14].

Рис. 1. Объем глобального рынка искусственного интеллекта и генеративного искусственного интеллекта, млрд долл. Примечание: расчеты авторов с использованием [7, 15 - 19]
Рис. 1. Объем глобального рынка искусственного интеллекта и генеративного искусственного интеллекта, млрд долл.
Примечание: расчеты авторов с использованием [7, 15 - 19]

В 2024 г. объем глобального (мирового) рынка генеративного искусственного интеллекта составит 66,9 млрд долл., в том числе:

5,7 млрд долл. / 2024 г. — объем глобального рынка программного обеспечения генеративного искусственного интеллекта: специализированные помощники по созданию генеративного искусственного интеллекта; рабочих процессов кодирования, DevOps и генеративного искусственного интеллекта; ПО для инфраструктуры рабочей нагрузки генерирующего искусственного интеллекта; кибербезопасности, основанной на генеративном искусственном интеллекте, и т.д.

61,2 млрд долл. / 2024 г. — объем глобального рынка аппаратного оборудования генеративного искусственного интеллекта: серверы, хранилища, генеративная инфраструктура ИИ как услуга.

Рис. 2. Объем глобального (мирового) рынка генеративного искусственного интеллекта (Всего 66,9 млрд долл. в 2024 г.)
Рис. 2. Объем глобального (мирового) рынка генеративного искусственного интеллекта (Всего 66,9 млрд долл. в 2024 г.)

Указанный выше размер глобального рынка генеративного искусственного интеллекта [66,9 млрд долл./2024 г.] может быть выше при учете сложно подсчитываемых рынков рекламы и игр, основанных на генеративном искусственном интеллекте В 2024 г. это может добавить к рынку генеративного ИИ 3,3 – 4,5 млрд долл.

Рынок генеративного искусственного интеллекта США является доминирующим, на втором месте находится Китай, далее следуют рынки Германии и Японии (см. Табл. 1).

Таблица 1. Прогноз рынка генеративного ИИ по некоторым странам за 2024 – 2032 гг., млрд долл.Примечание: расчеты авторов с использованием [7, 15, 17 –  20]
Таблица 1. Прогноз рынка генеративного ИИ по некоторым странам за 2024 – 2032 гг., млрд долл.
Примечание: расчеты авторов с использованием [7, 15, 17 – 20]

Влияние генеративного ИИ потенциально может обеспечить дополнительную глобальную экономическую активность по всему миру. Текущие оценки — это 2,6 – 7,9 трлн долл. США (около 2,6 – 4,4 трлн долл. США — целенаправленное применение генеративного ИИ для решения конкретных бизнес-задач, 3,5 трлн долл. США — влияние генеративного ИИ на сопредельные бизнес-задачи) ежегодно до 2040 г. [6, 21].

Генеративный ИИ создает как прямой эффект для отраслейза счет внедрения новых продуктов и сервисов, так и дополнительный эффект за счет роста продуктивности сотрудников. Но мгновенно внедрить технологии во все отрасли, сферы и вертикали невозможно. Теоретически рассчитанный потенциал инструмента редко достигается на практике из-за эффективных границ реального применения.

В Табл. 2 приведена оценка влияния генеративного ИИ на некоторые отрасли экономики совокупно по миру.

Таблица 2. Оценка влияния генеративного ИИ по некоторым отраслямПримечание: использовано [6, 21, 22, 23]
Таблица 2. Оценка влияния генеративного ИИ по некоторым отраслям
Примечание: использовано [6, 21, 22, 23]

Большинство кейсов применения генеративного ИИ сегодня носят функциональный характер. Конечно, точки роста для некоторых индустрий более заметны, что связано с высокой маржинальностью бизнеса и отрасли. Например, при максимальном использовании потенциала технологии в финансовой и страховой сферах генеративный ИИ может принести от 250 до 410 млрд долл. в год, в оптовой и розничной торговле — от 400 до 660 млрд долл. в год.

Влияние генеративного ИИ на бизнес в России

Мы провели валидацию по мультипликаторам, зависимостям объемных показателей между собойс учетом эффектов по внедрению технологии. На наш взгляд, столь высокие оценки добавленного эффекта на экономику, приведенные в Табл. 2, носят излишне оптимистичный и спекулятивный характер. Маркетинговый евангелизм подпитывает интерес общества к этой технологии.

Для экономики РФ мы подготовили собственную оценку влияния генеративного ИИ. Расчеты показывают влияние этой технологии на экономику РФ в 1 – 2 трлн руб. в год (см. Табл. 3).

Таблица 3. Оценка влияния генеративного ИИ по некоторым отраслям экономики РФПримечание: расчеты авторов с использованием [24, 25]
Таблица 3. Оценка влияния генеративного ИИ по некоторым отраслям экономики РФ
Примечание: расчеты авторов с использованием [24, 25]

Огромные возможности генеративного ИИ должны сочетаться с гарантиями занятости, правами интеллектуальной собственности и этическими нормами.

Библиографический список

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25. Real GDP growth [Электронный ресурс] // МВФ – международная организация. URL: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/USA (дата обращения 06.01.2024).

Источник

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  • 09.10.25 11:05 marcushenderson624

    Bitcoin Recovery Testimonial After falling victim to a cryptocurrency scam group, I lost $354,000 worth of USDT. I thought all hope was lost from the experience of losing my hard-earned money to scammers. I was devastated and believed there was no way to recover my funds. Fortunately, I started searching for help to recover my stolen funds and I came across a lot of testimonials online about Capital Crypto Recovery, an agent who helps in recovery of lost bitcoin funds, I contacted Capital Crypto Recover Service, and with their expertise, they successfully traced and recovered my stolen assets. Their team was professional, kept me updated throughout the process, and demonstrated a deep understanding of blockchain transactions and recovery protocols. They are trusted and very reliable with a 100% successful rate record Recovery bitcoin, I’m grateful for their help and highly recommend their services to anyone seeking assistance with lost crypto. Contact: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Email: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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  • 11.10.25 10:44 Tonerdomark

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  • 12.10.25 01:12 harristhomas7376

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  • 12.10.25 01:12 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 12.10.25 19:53 Tonerdomark

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  • 12.10.25 21:36 blessing

    Writing this review is a joy. Marie has provided excellent service ever since I started working with her in early 2018. I was worried I wouldn't be able to get my coins back after they were stolen by hackers. I had no idea where to begin, therefore it was a nightmare for me. However, things became easier for me after my friend sent me to [email protected] and +1 7127594675 on WhatsApp. I'm happy that she was able to retrieve my bitcoin so that I could resume trading.

  • 13.10.25 01:11 elizabethrush89

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 17.10.25 20:17 tyleradams

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