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Как у меня НЕ получился торговый бот на Polymarket

Привет, Хабр. Видел в интернете кейс. где сделали бота с LLM для торговли на Polymarket и он сделал $10k из $1k за месяц. Ну и чо бы не попробовать что то такое же сделать! Побочный проект, чисто по приколу. Вооружил его вирутальным стартовым капиталом — $100 нарисованных.

И вот на второй день этот несерьёзный проект показал +9% на счёте.

Сразу дисклеймер: я не трейдер. Вообще! Фрилансер-разработчик, IoT, телеграм-боты — это моё. А в трейдинге я плохо шарю, по-честному, и если в комментариях окажутся настоящие трейдеры и увидят очевидные глупости — это потому что я в этой теме очевидно глуп. Статья не про trading expertise (у меня её нет). Она про методологию измерения и про то, как я четыре раза подряд обманывал себя на ней. Тут у меня получше.

Обычно такой текст заканчивается на: «И вот как я поднял иксы на ставках». Но нет! Следующие две недели я доказывал себе, что эти 9% — не прибыль, а артефакт измерения, причем четыре раза подряд. Параметрика, риск-слой, LLM-как-трейдер, FLB-харвест. И каждый раз казалось — вот сейчас, ну вот же оно!... УВЫ.

TL;DR. Negative result. Если ждёте «как я поднял иксы» — закройте вкладку. Если интересно, как на живых (пусть и бумажных) деньгах отличить настоящий edge от артефакта измерения, и почему рынок прогнозов сопротивляется наивным подходам — добро пожаловать. Код открыт, цифры воспроизводятся.

Эпиграф для внимательного: у всех четырёх провалов один общий корень. Но назову не сразу — сначала нужно почувствовать, как легко в него провалиться.

0. Что такое Polymarket и почему казалось что тут есть деньги

Polymarket — рынок предсказаний. Контракт торгуется в диапазоне $0…$1, и цена читается как вероятность: 0.10 = «рынок оценивает шанс в 10%». Резолвится в $1 (да) или $0 (нет). Меня привлекла, так же, его прозрачность.

Гипотеза, запускающая 90% таких проектов (моего в том числе): толпа на рынках предсказаний систематически ошибается, а новостной поток + LLM позволяют поймать ошибку раньше рынка. В литературе даже есть имя для одной такой неэффективности — favorite-longshot bias (FLB): игроки переплачивают за маловероятные исходы. Бесплатный сыр, ну.

Сыр был в мышеловке (конечно жеж), а мышеловка — в моей собственной методике измерения.

1. Архитектура

Сам репозиторий
Стек намеренно скучный:

  • FastAPI — API-слой (api).

  • Aiogram 3 — телеграм-бот как фронт аналитики.

  • PostgreSQL — рынки, снапшоты цен, новости, анализы, сигналы, сделки.

  • Redis + Celery — worker + beat: инжест новостей, снятие снапшотов, генерация сигналов, мониторинг сделок.

  • Docker Compose; seed — единственный источник правды по активной стратегии (dev-режим: БД периодически вайпается, миграций нет).

  • CometAPI — доступ к LLM. Две модели: дешёвая для релевантности новостей, сильная (Sonnet 4.6) для торговых решений.

Модули (app/modules/):

news_ingestion   → забор новостей, дедуп по хэшу
llm_analysis     → LLM оценивает новость: relevance, impact_direction,
                   impact_strength, confidence
signal_engine    → превращал анализ в "edge" и сигнал           (v1–v4)
paper_trading    → открывал/вёл/закрывал бумажные сделки         (v1–v4)
llm_trader       → LLM сам принимает ВСЕ торговые решения        (v5)
llm_scorer       → измерительный инструмент: грейдит решения      (v5)
analytics        → агрегаты для дашборда
market_data      → клиент Polymarket (Gamma / CLOB / Data API)
telegram_ui      → бот-меню

В v1–v4 конвейер линейный: новость → анализ → сигнал → сделка → дашборд. Развалился он не там, где я ожидал.

2. v1–v2: болезнь time_limit

Первая рабочая версия (коммит 3ed8777) имела весь конвейер. v2 закрывала сделки по take-profit, stop-loss либо тайм-ауту удержания. Всё как у людей.

Результат v2 (n=260 закрытых):

  • +$0.21 суммарно, средняя сделка +$0.0008, winrate 49%;

  • 100% сделок закрылись по тайм-ауту. TP/SL не сработали ни разу.

Сижу, смотрю на это и думаю — да быть такого не может! Ну хоть один раз! Замерил фактическую амплитуду цены за окно удержания (120 минут): медиана 0.7 п.п., максимум 7 п.п. А пороги стояли на 10/7 п.п. Пороги были математически недостижимы.
Короче - бот физически не мог по ним сработать. Я поставил TP так, чтобы он не мог сработать никогда. БРАВО :)

Прежде чем крутить пороги — измерь распределение того, что они должны ловить. Это видно из данных за пять минут, а не за две недели бэктеста. Но этот же вывод и завёл меня в ловушку — я решил, что проблема в порогах. Спойлер: проблема не в порогах.

3. v3: +9% за два дня, которые оказались ничем

v3 (коммит 4c2d98d) починил пороги по измеренной амплитуде:

take_profit_abs:        0.02   (было 0.10)
stop_loss_abs:          0.015  (было 0.07)
max_holding_minutes:    240    (было 120)
default_position_size:  1.0    (было 0.1)

И стало красиво. Замер на n=1052 закрытых сделках:

  • механика ожила: TP 49%, SL 33%, time_limit 18%;

  • equity $109.03, +9% за два дня.

Если бы я остановился здесь — была бы статья «как я поднял 9% на Polymarket». Но обычно я двигался так: никогда не верить заголовочному PnL без разбивки по концентрации. И эта разбивка убила всё.

По рынкам: 2 рынка из 17 дали +$14.35, остальные 15 — −$6.10. Весь профит — в двух рынках. Главный герой:

US x Iran peace by May 31:  NO,  371 сделка,  winrate 94.6%,  +$10.55

По цене входа: весь профит сидел в одной полосе entry_price |0.10, 0.15) = +$10.33 на 394 сделках. Уберём её — оставшиеся 660 сделок дают −$1.98.

Так что тут произошло? Бот нашёл рынок, который почти наверняка резолвится в NO (мира с Ираном к 31 мая не будет), и 371 раз перезаходил в одну и ту же near-resolved позицию, собирая детерминированный календарный распад. winrate 94.6% — не навык, а структура почти-решённого рынка.

И тут я сначала предложил гениальное: «v4 = только NO». Неправильно — это бы УСИЛИЛО концентрацию на Иране. Направление — не рычаг, хорошо что не закодил.

4. Оказалось: один корень на четыре провала

Пора назвать то, что я обещал в эпиграфе. У всех провалов было два сросшихся корня.

Первый: я измерял отметку, а не исход

Бумажная сделка «оценивается» по текущей цене рынка (mark). Открыл NO по 0.10, цена уехала на 0.08 — на бумаге у тебя +$0.02 «прибыли». Но это же не прибыль, а переоценка позиции по текущему марку! Реализованный результат известен только в момент резолюции: $1 или $0.

Почти весь «edge» в v1–v5 был артефактом измерения по марку и по дрейфу цены на горизонте +Nч, а не по тому, чем рынок реально закончился. Календарный распад почти-решённого рынка по марку выглядит как стабильная прибыль. На этом и стоят иранские +$10.55.

Корень второй: формула edge была тавтологией

Открываю app/modules/signal_engine/service.py. Смотрю как считается edge. Вот формула (сохранена в git и в докстринге текущего no-op):

sign  = self._direction_sign(impact_direction)        # +1 / -1
strength = self._clamp01(impact_strength)              # 0..1 из LLM
delta = strength * confidence * 0.5 * sign             # масштаб конвикшена LLM
model_probability = self._clamp01(market_probability + delta)
edge = model_probability - market_probability

Подставляю одно в другое, пока clamp не упёрся в границу:

edge = (market_probability + delta) − market_probability = delta
     = strength · confidence · 0.5 · sign

Ещё разок: «edge» — это буквально собственная уверенность LLM ×0.5. Он НИКОГДА не сравнивается с исходом. То есть - замкнутый круг: модель уверена → значит есть edge → потому что модель уверена. Можно сколько угодно крутить пороги, поднимать min_edge, можно фильтровать по min_confidence. Но это не поможет, потому что величина, которую мы зовём «edge», не содержит информации о реальности. Это тавтология, замаскированная под метрику.

А вырождение clamp на краях ещё коварнее! Когда market_probability + delta упирается в 0 (низковероятный рынок, NO), clamp срезает model_probability в 0:

edge = 0 − market_probability = −market_probability

Самый большой по модулю edge — ровно у границы 0/1. А в paper_trading:

direction = "YES" if edge >= 0 else "NO"

На дешёвых лонгшотах edge всегда отрицательный → бот структурно всегда берёт NO. «100% NO на Иране» — артефакт клампа, а не стратегия, машинка по сбору распада была вшита в формулу. И вот так я её три недели принимал за альфу :)

А как должно было быть??

Edge на рынке предсказаний по определению — расхождение вашей независимой оценки вероятности с ценой:

edge = P_independent(event) − market_price

Оценка P_independent должна строиться БЕЗ участия рыночной цены. Варианты: базовая ставка по историческим аналогам (как часто события такого класса реально случались), внешняя предсказательная модель, ансамбль прогнозов, парсинг условий резолва. Моя формула вместо этого брала рыночную цену и прибавляла к ней конвикшен LLM. То есть P_independent была функцией от market_price, и edge схлопывался в тавтологию. Согласиться с ценой, которую толпа уже загнала в край — это, вообще то, не edge...

Если в оценке вероятности фигурирует текущая цена — это не независимая оценка, а дорогой способ согласиться с рынком.

5. v3, шестой день: волна, которую принимают за тренд

Прошло шесть дней. Equity рисовала «бычью» пилу: 100 → 93 → 104 → 96 → 108 → 98 → 111.

Соблазн назвать это растущим трендом — огромный. Особенно если ты только что выпустил релиз и хочется верить. И я в своем канале даже кликбейтовый пост писал. Тут разбивка — это суперпозиция двух процессов:

  1. conc_band (полоса 0.10–0.15, та самая иранская машинка распада): +$20.1 за 6 дней, ноль стоп-лоссов в большие дни — но нерепрезентативно и истекает 31 мая вместе с резолюцией.

  2. rest (настоящие направленные ставки движка): −$12.0 за 6 дней.

Equity растёт ТОЛЬКО потому, что +$20 распада обгоняют −$12 движка, а как закончится распад — закончится «тренд».

Нюанс: выкинув один день-провал (05-16: 384 стоп-лосса из 501, −$11.56), rest ≈ −$0.45 — на нормальных днях движок около нуля, но регулярно ловит неконтролируемый коррелированный хвост (~раз в 6 дней; YES-лонгшоты — спортивные фавориты + геополитика — двигаются вместе в risk-off дни). Тут нет ни edge, ни контроля хвоста.

6. v4: строим риск-слой и получаем неопровержимую улику

Решил добавить структурный риск-слой, не трогая пороги (коммит 720e642). Три гварда в paper_trading:

daily_loss_limit_abs           = 5.0   # дневной ранний стоп
max_trades_per_market_per_day  = 10    # потолок перезаходов в один рынок
max_same_direction_open        = 10    # анти-корреляционный гвард

v4 не создаёт edge — она снимает маску концентрации, чтобы стала видна истинная ожидаемость движка. Замер v4 (n=288 за ~5 дней), и доказательства её отсутствия:

(1) Та же ставка — перевёрнутый знак. Тот самый иранский рынок:

US x Iran peace by May 31:
  v3:  +$10.55,  winrate 94.6%
  v4:  −$2.80,   winrate 16.7%

Тот же рынок и тот же движок, а знак перевернулся за дни.

В v3 он ловил удачу распада, в v4 потолок перезаходов это убрал, и «навык» испарился. Был бы это edge — он бы не зависел от того, разрешил ли я заходить 371 раз или 10, dtlm edge от количества заходов не зависит, а сбор премии распада — да.

(2) Бимодальный winrate. Рынки кучкуются на 62–100% ИЛИ 0–17%. Ни одного в зоне «навыка» 45–58%. Это лотерея направления дрейфа, а не предсказание.

(3) Профит снова концентрирован: 2 рынка (Spurs +$3.64, Iran-2027 +$1.56) = +$5.2, весь остальной стакан = −$2.32.

Неожиданный прикол — иллюстрация закона Литтла: потолок перезаходов срезал rate входов ~в 9 раз, и среднее число открытых позиций упало с 16 до 3. «16 открытых» в v3 были не диверсификацией.

Вывод: параметрическая глава закрыта. Никакая настройка порогов / направления / размера не создаёт edge — проблема выше по течению, в фейковой формуле.

7. v5: «Отдадим всё LLM» и нарвёмся на инверсную калибровку

Логичный шаг: убрать фейковую формулу совсем. v5 (коммит ea1847a) — параметрический торговый код выходит на пенсию (signal_engine и paper_trading — inert no-op), а ВСЕ решения (открыть/закрыть/держать/изменить, сторона, размер, риск) принимает LLM-трейдер. Ноль кодовых риск-лимитов, единственный инвариант — не заполнять сделку по невалидной цене, это защита от мусорного PnL. Каждое решение логируется в новую таблицу llm_decisions.

Первый же поведенческий сигнал (n=5) был ну прям дежавю: LLM сам, за часы, переоткрыл ловушку распада. Все 4 позиции NO на низковероятных рынках (p0 = 0.295, 0.155, 0.152, 0.008). Позиция по 0.008 — это максимум +$0.08 против −$9.92 риска! Справедливости ради, одно его решение было корректным hold с формулировкой «цена уже у пола, edge нет». То есть распознать ловушку он МОЖЕТ, просто непоследовательно. Ну прям как я!

Замер v5 показал инверсную калибровку: в зоне core (p0 0.15–0.85) рынок шёл против решений модели ~70% времени. В полосе максимальной уверенности [0.70, 0.85] — 1 из 10 благоприятных на +1ч и 0 из 9 на +4ч. То есть - модель ошибалась сильнее всего там, где была увереннее всего.

Честная оговорка, без которой раздел разваливается. Я только что (раздел 4) объявил: мерить надо ИСХОД, а не марк или дрейф на +Nч, и тут же строю вердикт v5 ровно на горизонтах +1ч/+4ч. То есть на марках, тот же самый корневой баг измерения.

Поэтому вот что:

  • n=18 направленных решений — это не выборка для калибровочного утверждения. На 18 точках любой паттерн чувствителен к 1-2 рынкам. «p ≈ 0.2%» формально считается, но статистически это сигнал, а не доказательство — для устойчивого вывода нужен n ≥ 100.

  • Разбивку по рынкам я привести не могу — серверную БД v5 я стёр до того, как осознал важность пересчёта к исходам. Тут так: если те 18 решений были по 3-5 рынкам — я мерил удачу на этих рынках, а не калибровку модели. Это ограничение, и я его не закрываю :(

  • Поэтому снижаю риторику: v5 дала сигнал инверсной калибровки на марк-горизонтах, согласующийся с последующим честным замером, однако сам по себе он недостаточен. Чистый вердикт дал только replay к резолюции в v6, вот именно осознание слабости v5-замера и заставило меня построить v6 правильно.

Заголовочная equity v5 ($85.66 → $108.33 за неделю) — шум марка на n=18.

8. v6: последняя честная гипотеза и как её правильно убить

Я смешивал два утверждения:

  • (A) «модель умеет прогнозировать» — опровергнуто;

  • (B) «входы fade-the-longshot, к которым вёл клампа, имеют реализованный edge» — а вот это к резолюции ни разу чисто не мерилось.

FLB — реальная вещь из литературы! Может, иранские +$10.55 были настоящим харвестом FLB, просто я случайно его собирал? Два победителя — это survivorship, не доказательство, это надо проверить чисто!

Математика всё решает, ибо царица наук

Продать YES-контракт по цене p = взять сторону NO. Выплата: +p, если резолв NO (вероятность 1−q), и −(1−p), если YES (вероятность q), где q — эмпирическая частота срабатывания лонгшота. Ожидание на контракт:

EV = (1−q)·p + q·(−(1−p)) = p − q

+EV тогда и только тогда, когда p > q. То есть лонгшоты систематически ПЕРЕоценены. Чистый тайм-распад — мартингейл, в ноль на справедливой книге. Edge ограничен размером мисприсинга и ОБЯЗАН побить спред! Ну обязан же...

«Починим правилами, чтобы увернуться от хвоста» — самоподрыв: отфильтровать «новостные» лонгшоты = протащить обратно claim-A («модель умеет прогнозировать новости»), уже мёртвый.

Survivorship-free replay

Офлайн-харнес app/research/flb_replay.py (коммит 04a706a) не ходит в БД и ничего не пишет — только читает публичный API. Реальная воронка (числа из реального прогона):

2100  закрытых рынков, вытянутых из Gamma (closed=true, по убыванию объёма)
1202  бинарных Yes/No
1202  резолвнулись чисто в ~0/1   (ambiguous: 0, malformed: 0)
1176  с YES-токеном, датой резолва и объёмом ≥ $10k
 400  топ по объёму — прогон сэмплил их (max_markets)
  48  имели тик цены в полосе [0.05, 0.15] с runway (7, 90]d  → сработали

Для каждого сработавшего: вход — первая точка в полосе (ex-ante, исход не подсматривается), скоринг — к РЕАЛЬНОЙ резолюции из outcomePrices. Чистые функции покрыты юнит-тестами (tests/unit/research/test_flb_replay.py): парсинг исходов, ex-ante вход без look-ahead, тождество mean_pnl == p̄ − q при нулевом спреде.

Базовый якорь: по всем 1202 бинарным рынкам безусловный YES-rate = 318/1202 = 26.5%. Триггер «лонгшот» опускает q до 10–21% — то есть он действительно отбирает низковероятные рынки, как задумано. Ну это я хотя бы не наврал!

Три прогона — и приговор

прогон

вселенная / вход

n

p̄ (цена)

q (выбило YES)

gross edge

@ спред 2c

исходный

ликвид, earliest-in-band

48

0.104

0.208

−0.105

−0.11

stable

ликвид, сидит в полосе ≥14д

52

0.081

0.096

−0.015

−0.025

tail

ликвид, vol $2k–50k**

58

0.111

0.103

+0.008

−0.002

Что тут вообще:

  • Ликвид — анти-FLB. Лонгшоты по ~10% выбивали YES в 20.8%. То есть они НЕДОоценены, а не переоценены. Тут фейд теряет −0.105 на контракт, а ликвид — единственное место, где можно реально разместить капитал.

  • Фильтр стабильности работает как сигнал, но приземляется на справедливую цену. Требование «цена сидела в полосе ≥14 дней» (это стилман моего же v6-правила про календарный распад без новостей) срезало q с 0.208 до 0.096 — вычистило climbers и news-волатильность. Фильтр молодчик, короче! Но q (9.6%) ≈ p̄ (8.1%): премии для «страховщика» под спокойными лонгшотами нет, цена справедливая.

  • Остаток FLB живёт в illiquid-хвосте (p̄ 11.1% > q 10.3%) — ровно как предсказывает теория (шарпам невыгодно чинить мелкие рынки). Но он (а) статистически ноль (при n=58 σ(q) ≈ 0.039, edge 0.0078 ≈ 1/5 сигмы), и (б) экономически мёртв.

Где честно слабо

Ограничения, к которым я пришел:

  1. outcomePrices принимаются как истина без аудита UMA-историй. UMA-резолв исторически имел спорные кейсы (определения «happens», временны́е границы, ручные оверрайды). В моей видимой выборке 0% неоднозначных резолвов — но это потому, что closed=true по построению отдаёт только формально-резолвнутые, а диспьюты я не аудировал.

  2. Selection bias вселенной. Воид/отменённые/зависшие-нерезолвнутые лонгшоты в closed=true не попадают вовсе и их долю отсюда не видно, ведь лонгшоты снимаются чаще среднего — значит часть вселенной я просто не вижу. Направление биаса, скорее, консервативно к моему выводу: если воиднутые лонгшоты — это в основном несостоявшиеся события (были бы NO), их исключение завышает измеренный q и делает мой анти-FLB-результат ещё пессимистичнее для стратегии, но без аудита пропущенного это догадка.

  3. Earliest-in-band — оптимистичная цена входа. Я вхожу в момент первого касания полосы, но в реальной торговле сигнал был бы позже (увидеть → подтвердить → исполнить), а на illiquid-рынках разница в днях — это другая цена и другой q. Sensitivity по delayed-entry я не гонял, приведённый gross edge — это ВЕРХНЯЯ оценка, лучший случай для стратегии и даже верхняя оценка ≤ 0 после спреда.

  4. Спред в хвосте занижен референсом. Брейкивен illiquid-прогона = 2 × gross = 2 × 0.0078 ≈ 0.0156 (1.6c). В модели платишь полспреда на входе и держишь до резолюции, без спреда на выходе, а на лонгшотах с объёмом $2–10k реальный bid-ask чаще 8–20c плюс слиппедж от собственного ордера. Вот вам точная формулировка: edge мёртв при любом реалистичном спреде — точка безубыточности 1.6c, а такого спреда на этих рынках не бывает.

v6 не построен. Закрыт ДО единой строчки торгового кода.

9. Технические засады в API Polymarket

Несколько вещей, на которых я потерял время:

  • Gamma кодирует списочные поля как JSON-строки. outcomes, outcomePrices, clobTokenIds приходят строками вида '["Yes", "No"]'. Нужен ручной json.loads. Прям как в нулевых.

  • Gamma отдаёт 422 на большом offset. Это конец пагинации, не ошибка! Ловите и останавливайтесь.

  • CLOB /prices-history режет окно ~14 днями независимо от fidelity. interval=max/1d/1w для тестовых токенов возвращал пусто. Лечится чанкингом по 13 дней со склейкой и дедупом по timestamp. Голый except: returnэто глушил и давал «0 сработало».

  • Offset-пагинация упирается в ~2100 строк на направление. Mid-tail (vol $2k–50k) сидит МЕЖДУ «верхними 2100» и «нижними 2100» и недостижим через offset. Достаётся серверным фильтром volume_num_min / volume_num_max.

10. Почему это не работает: синтез

Три независимые главы — параметрика (v1–v4), LLM-как-трейдер (v5), FLB-харвест (v6) — дали no/negative edge. Складываем:

  1. Не было модели. Формула edge была тавтологией (конвикшен LLM ×0.5), не сравнённой с реальностью.

  2. «Прибыль» была артефактом измерения. Календарный распад почти-решённых рынков по марку маскировался под альфу; survivorship по двум победителям достраивал иллюзию.

  3. LLM не спасает. Сильная модель не создаёт edge автоматически — v5 дала сигнал инверсной калибровки (на крошечной выборке).

  4. FLB неторгуем. Там, где ликвидно — его нет или он обратный. Где он шепчет (хвост) — он ниже стоимости транзакции.

И сразу — чего я НЕ доказал. «Рынок эффективен» — утверждение сильнее моих данных. Я показал ровно следующее: в той части рынка, где можно разместить капитал, методы, которые я пробовал (predictive-бот на новостях + ex-ante FLB-харвест), edge не дают, но это не исключает других ниш, которые мой опыт просто не покрывает:

  • resolution arbitrage — LLM парсит точные условия UMA-резолва и ловит расхождение буквы условия с тем, как рынок его понимает;

  • cross-market coherence — арбитраж логически связанных рынков (если A⇒B, цены должны быть согласованы, и если нет — есть бесплатные деньги);

  • market making на широких спредах в хвосте.

Их держите отдельно от моего вывода — я их не трогал.

11. Что я вынес: методология дороже стратегии

Стратегии у меня нет, а вот метод — есть. И он, по-моему, ценнее самой стратегии:

  • Никогда не верь заголовочному PnL. Первое — разбивка по концентрации (по рынкам и по полосам цены входа). Один-два рынка, делающие весь результат — красный флаг survivorship. Если бы я в первый день после +9% не пошёл в разбивку, я бы реально публиковал статью о «успехе».

  • Измеряй ИСХОД, а не отметку. Единственная честная метрика — survivorship-free replay к реальной резолюции, так как марки и +Nч-дрейф врут систематически в одну сторону.

  • Перед настройкой порогов измерь распределение того, что они ловят. Если бы я это сделал в v1, не было бы v2.

  • Различай «баг измерения» и «отсутствие edge». Я честно смешал их в v3/v4 (и в v5) и потерял время. Чистый тест каждой гипотезы по отдельности экономит недели.

  • Negative result — это результат. Четыре гипотезы закрыты и могу написать об этом статью.

Контрфактическое

Ели бы я остановился на втором дне, опубликовал «+9% за два дня», вечером того же дня прочитал статью про favorite-longshot bias. И решил бы: «Ого, я случайно делаю именно это! Бесплатные деньги!». Я поверил в свой edge, и, блин, вполне возможно — занёс бы на этот рынок реальные деньги, а через две недели потерял бы их на флипе иранского рынка после первой реальной новости.

Защищает одна привычка: разбей PnL и измерь к исходу, прежде чем поверить себе.

Эта статья — лог того, как эта привычка четыре раза спасала меня от собственного оптимизма.

12. Масштаб и репозиторий

Фейковый капитал — стартовые $100, ноль реализованного edge на выходе.

Расход на LLM-токены — $20, из них $13 — Claude Sonnet 4.6 по $2.40/Mtok (трейдер-LLM). Остальное — ChatGPT 5.1 для оценки релевантности новостей.

Это 20% от paper-капитала, ушедшие на инференс ради количественного нуля. Если читать как unit economics реального проекта — даже идеальная стратегия с 20% APR на $100 капитала просто окупила бы токены, и не принесла бы ничего сверху.

Одностишная мораль для подобных проектов: слил $20 на LLM, чтобы количественно показать ноль на бумажных $100.

Открыты: код, журнал стратегий с замерами по каждой версии (docs/STRATEGY_JOURNAL.md), полный отчёт по FLB pre-mortem (docs/research/flb_pre_mortem.md) и воспроизводимый харнес.

Навигация по эволюции:

3ed8777  начальный конвейер (v1/v2)
4c2d98d  v3: пороги по измеренной амплитуде
720e642  v4: структурный риск-слой
ea1847a  v5: pivot на LLM-as-trader
c9722f3  v5: скорер (калибровка + edge)
04a706a  v6: survivorship-free FLB replay

Проект разрабатывался в плотной паре с Claude Code - это не вайбкодинг ради хайпа! Вся аналитика, замеры, разбор кода и формулировки — мои, но писались и проверялись в диалоге. Результаты подобных экспериментов и мысли выкладываю тут

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  • 07.07.26 18:00 robertalfred175

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  • 07.07.26 18:01 robertalfred175

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  • 16.07.26 21:38 patricialovick86

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  • 30.07.26 00:04 Ahmed

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  • 04.08.26 11:05 Kisnoles

    Excellent analysis, thank you. I was particularly struck by how rigidly the skill sets the order: data processing and form come first, with color coming last. This really cures the habit of "first a pretty palette, then we'll figure it out." A palette validator using OKLCH + color blindness + WCAG is something most chart generators lack. And regarding the boundaries of competence, it's very clear. Where there's a self-checking loop (color), you delegate freely. Where there's a heuristic (form, data interpretation), you remain the final filter. This is a universal principle, not just for /dataviz. By the way, when you look at trading dashboards (including those of decent platforms like ExpertOption), it's immediately clear who thought about readability and who just threw in rainbow lines. Tools like this skill could greatly improve the quality of analytics. Thanks again for the detailed analysis – saved.

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  • 23.08.26 20:02 leslieyee

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  • 01.09.26 11:16 lisawerth897

    My Experience With Cryptocurrency — CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER I lost over $82,000 in Bitcoin after falling victim to a fraudulent online investment scheme. After realizing I had been scammed, I spent considerable time researching possible ways to recover my funds. During my research, I came across CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER and decided to contact them after reading their reported success record and encouraging client positive reviews and testimonials. Their team guided me through the recovery process, and I was grateful to successfully recover my lost cryptocurrency. The experience was challenging, but I appreciated the assistance and support I received throughout the process. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it may encourage other victims to carefully research their options and verify any recovery service before proceeding. I will forever be thankful to you CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER 📧 [email protected] 🌐 Website: recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1 📧 [email protected] 📞 Call/WhatsApp: +1 (336) 390-6684

  • 01.09.26 11:16 lisawerth897

    My Experience With Cryptocurrency — CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER I lost over $82,000 in Bitcoin after falling victim to a fraudulent online investment scheme. After realizing I had been scammed, I spent considerable time researching possible ways to recover my funds. During my research, I came across CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER and decided to contact them after reading their reported success record and encouraging client positive reviews and testimonials. Their team guided me through the recovery process, and I was grateful to successfully recover my lost cryptocurrency. The experience was challenging, but I appreciated the assistance and support I received throughout the process. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it may encourage other victims to carefully research their options and verify any recovery service before proceeding. I will forever be thankful to you CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER 📧 [email protected] 🌐 Website: recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1 📧 [email protected] 📞 Call/WhatsApp: +1 (336) 390-6684

  • 01.09.26 17:34 Garry42

    Really crazy world. These fraudsters go at any length to steal your hard earned funds. I have been a victim of a bitcoin scam about 7 months back. A Con artist gained access to my cashapp account through a phishing scam. They stole $409,000. I was really devastated. I did everything to get back my funds by contacting the FBI but they claimed there was nothing they could do. A friend told me about a recovery expert. He helps fight against various phishing and investment scams and they were able to help trace and recover my funds even though it took over 2 days. you can reach out to him through recoverydarek@gmail. com . I can guarantee his services are still active.

  • 01.09.26 17:34 Garry42

    Really crazy world. These fraudsters go at any length to steal your hard earned funds. I have been a victim of a bitcoin scam about 7 months back. A Con artist gained access to my cashapp account through a phishing scam. They stole $409,000. I was really devastated. I did everything to get back my funds by contacting the FBI but they claimed there was nothing they could do. A friend told me about a recovery expert. He helps fight against various phishing and investment scams and they were able to help trace and recover my funds even though it took over 2 days. you can reach out to him through recoverydarek@gmail. com . I can guarantee his services are still active.

  • 02.09.26 03:43 kimberlyhebertt6877

    I invested in bitcoin trading After losing $78.4 USDT) linked to a romance fraud scam worth of cryptocurrency through an online investment platform and later discovered it was a scam. After extensive research for recovery options, I contacted CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER based on positive client reviews and recommendations. Their professional security team guided me through the recovery process using advanced technology, and I was able to recover my lost cryptocurrency successfully. I am truly grateful for their support and assistance during such a difficult experience. I will advise you to contact CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER helped me recover my funds. For anyone facing similar issues, Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1 Email: [email protected] Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] WhatsApp/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684

  • 02.09.26 03:43 kimberlyhebertt6877

    I invested in bitcoin trading After losing $78.4 USDT) linked to a romance fraud scam worth of cryptocurrency through an online investment platform and later discovered it was a scam. After extensive research for recovery options, I contacted CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER based on positive client reviews and recommendations. Their professional security team guided me through the recovery process using advanced technology, and I was able to recover my lost cryptocurrency successfully. I am truly grateful for their support and assistance during such a difficult experience. I will advise you to contact CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER helped me recover my funds. For anyone facing similar issues, Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1 Email: [email protected] Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] WhatsApp/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684

  • 04.09.26 21:51 Kovengray

    Recovering your lost investment funds as the case might be, is not what you can do alone, you’d require the service of a trained recovery specialist. A recovery specialist is a person or a group of people who are well equipped to work around the brokerage network. They have vast knowledge about the whole network and have the right software and private keys to follow any transaction. I was ripped off trading online to an investment broker, good thing I got every penny back through the help of Gavin ray he’s a genius Contact : Gavinray78 at gmail com or WhatsApp +1 352 322 2096 It is also important to be patient and really calm during the process.

  • 05.09.26 21:38 [email protected]

    I invested 45,000  Euro, and later aggreviated to 198,000 Euro.  I requested  to place ‎Withdrawal of my funds to be paid to my Bank account. But nothing happened I was subjected to pay more fee until I can get my funds on my account, i got in touch with Theodore ryan here on this platform who had helped a lot of people, I followed all instructions and he legally got back my withheld funds, I got threatened by the company that if I don’t pay they will get my account frozen, all thanks to Theodore ryan and I highly recommend him to anyone dealing with an unregulated broker company… contact him on his Gmail - theodoreryan318@  gmail .  com

  • 09.09.26 21:31 lisawerth897

    My Experience With Cryptocurrency — CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER I lost over $82,000 in Bitcoin after falling victim to a fraudulent online investment scheme. After realizing I had been scammed, I spent considerable time researching possible ways to recover my funds. During my research, I came across CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER and decided to contact them after reading their reported success record and encouraging client positive reviews and testimonials. Their team guided me through the recovery process, and I was grateful to successfully recover my lost cryptocurrency. The experience was challenging, but I appreciated the assistance and support I received throughout the process. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it may encourage other victims to carefully research their options and verify any recovery service before proceeding. I will forever be thankful to you CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER 📧 [email protected] 🌐 Website: recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1 📧 [email protected] 📞 Call/WhatsApp: +1 (336) 390-6684

  • 09.09.26 21:31 lisawerth897

    My Experience With Cryptocurrency — CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER I lost over $82,000 in Bitcoin after falling victim to a fraudulent online investment scheme. After realizing I had been scammed, I spent considerable time researching possible ways to recover my funds. During my research, I came across CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER and decided to contact them after reading their reported success record and encouraging client positive reviews and testimonials. Their team guided me through the recovery process, and I was grateful to successfully recover my lost cryptocurrency. The experience was challenging, but I appreciated the assistance and support I received throughout the process. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it may encourage other victims to carefully research their options and verify any recovery service before proceeding. I will forever be thankful to you CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER 📧 [email protected] 🌐 Website: recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1 📧 [email protected] 📞 Call/WhatsApp: +1 (336) 390-6684

  • 09.09.26 23:22 Fraddy Pual

    Hearing that these individuals are focusing on other people makes me very sad. I had a similar situation with them and lost a lot of money, but after learning about (Cruxcipherteam @ proton DoT me), whataqq:+168160-15021, telegram: @Cruxcipherteam I was able to get my money back. It's critical that we all be watchful and keep reporting these occurrences.

  • 11.09.26 03:23 kimberlyhebertt6877

    I invested in bitcoin trading After losing $78.4 USDT) linked to a romance fraud scam worth of cryptocurrency through an online investment platform and later discovered it was a scam. After extensive research for recovery options, I contacted CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER based on positive client reviews and recommendations. Their professional security team guided me through the recovery process using advanced technology, and I was able to recover my lost cryptocurrency successfully. I am truly grateful for their support and assistance during such a difficult experience. I will advise you to contact CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER helped me recover my funds. For anyone facing similar issues, Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1 Email: [email protected] Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] WhatsApp/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684

  • 11.09.26 03:23 kimberlyhebertt6877

    I invested in bitcoin trading After losing $78.4 USDT) linked to a romance fraud scam worth of cryptocurrency through an online investment platform and later discovered it was a scam. After extensive research for recovery options, I contacted CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER based on positive client reviews and recommendations. Their professional security team guided me through the recovery process using advanced technology, and I was able to recover my lost cryptocurrency successfully. I am truly grateful for their support and assistance during such a difficult experience. I will advise you to contact CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER helped me recover my funds. For anyone facing similar issues, Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1 Email: [email protected] Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] WhatsApp/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684

  • 15.09.26 03:35 elioduncan

    I fell victim to a freelance web development contract scam that ultimately cost me CAD 4,000. It all started when I came across a job posting on Indeed Canada, a popular online job portal. The position seemed perfect: a freelance web developer role for an established company looking for someone to design and build a fully functional e-commerce website. The job promised a high payment of CAD 20,000 upon successful completion, which sounded like a great opportunity for me to gain experience and earn decent pay.The employer, who introduced himself as a project manager from a "well-known" tech company, was very persuasive and professional in our initial communication. He explained that the project involved developing a user-friendly, responsive online store for their client and that they had a strict timeline to meet. He assured me that the payment would be made promptly after completing the tasks. However, before starting the work, he told me that I would need to pay an upfront fee of CAD 4,000 to cover certain software tools and licensing fees required for the project. This was supposedly a part of their company policy for freelance contractors, ensuring access to their premium resources. The idea of working on a professional project, coupled with the promise of a substantial payout, convinced me to pay the upfront fee.As soon as I made the payment, the project manager became increasingly difficult to reach. He initially responded to my emails and provided some vague instructions on what the project would entail, but as time went on, communication slowed to a complete halt. I never received the required tools or any proper project details. My emails went unanswered, and any attempts to contact the company were met with silence. After waiting for weeks, I realized that I had been scammed.Desperate to recover my money, I turned to TechY Force Cyber Retrieval, a service that specializes in helping victims of online scams. They helped me track the payment and took legal steps to pursue the fraudsters. Through their guidance, I was able to recover the full CAD 4,000. TechY Force Cyber Retrieval worked with my bank to reverse the transaction and liaised with the authorities to trace the scammer's details.This was a hard lesson, and I now know to be highly cautious about online job offers that require upfront payments. It is crucial to research companies thoroughly and avoid any job that seems too good to be true, especially when it involves paying money upfront. WhatsApp https://wa.link/2x6ktp Mail. [email protected]

  • 15.09.26 15:45 lydiassmith567

    HIRE A HACKER YOUR STOLEN CRYPTO RECOVERY / BTC / USDT / ETH WITH THE HELP OF CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER. I want to share my experience publicly regarding cryptocurrency wallet recovery, I highly recommend you to contact CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER, a professional private investigator in the Bitcoin world. They have a certified expert security team specializing in Bitcoin Recovery Services and have helped many people worldwide recover their lost funds. My wife and I were defrauded by an online manipulator posing as an experienced crypto investment professional. We lost $9.2 Million Stolen BTC in cryptocurrency and were left feeling homeless. After spending hours searching for a reliable crypto recovery service, I discovered CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER online. By patiently explaining my situation to their team, I was able to recover all my funds. Remarkably, my money was returned to my wallet in less than 24 hours. I am extremely grateful to CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER for their excellent assistance—they truly were a godsend in my difficult situation. If you have fallen victim to a cryptocurrency scam, you can reach CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER through the following channels Email: [email protected] OR Call/WhatsApp: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.09.26 15:45 lydiassmith567

    HIRE A HACKER YOUR STOLEN CRYPTO RECOVERY / BTC / USDT / ETH WITH THE HELP OF CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER. I want to share my experience publicly regarding cryptocurrency wallet recovery, I highly recommend you to contact CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER, a professional private investigator in the Bitcoin world. They have a certified expert security team specializing in Bitcoin Recovery Services and have helped many people worldwide recover their lost funds. My wife and I were defrauded by an online manipulator posing as an experienced crypto investment professional. We lost $9.2 Million Stolen BTC in cryptocurrency and were left feeling homeless. After spending hours searching for a reliable crypto recovery service, I discovered CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER online. By patiently explaining my situation to their team, I was able to recover all my funds. Remarkably, my money was returned to my wallet in less than 24 hours. I am extremely grateful to CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER for their excellent assistance—they truly were a godsend in my difficult situation. If you have fallen victim to a cryptocurrency scam, you can reach CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER through the following channels Email: [email protected] OR Call/WhatsApp: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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