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Искусственный Интеллект: проверяем предсказания 2012 года и думаем о его (и нашем) будущем

От ИИ Шедеврум
От ИИ Шедеврум

В моей трилогии «Астровитянка» (первое издание от 2008, 2009, 2010) одним из главных героев является Инка – искусственный интеллект, с которым можно поболтать, посоветоваться, и который полезен в поиске информации и решении всяких интеллектуальных задач типа моделирования. Как потом выяснилось, «Астровитянка» вдохновила немало российских программистов на работу в области ИИ. В сентябре 2012 у меня взяли хабр-интервью на тему ИИ: https://habr.com/ru/articles/151075/ (с продолжением: https://habr.com/ru/articles/152110/).

Интересно сравнить мои соображения 12.5-летней давности с нынешним состоянием ИИ. Самоцитирую из тогда и комментирую из сейчас:

2012: «Полезных результатов в области ИИ сделано поразительно мало. Пока решаются задачи типа оптимального выбора маршрута кибером, или автоматической стыковки кораблей. Но лет 15 назад роботы были экзотикой для чудаков, а сейчас это целая индустрия, созданная по запросам военных, врачей и спасателей. Так что прорывы возможны».

2025: Считаю, что для 2012 года оценка была вполне адекватной

2012: «Я описал в своей книге вариант колонизации тел Солнечной системы, когда вперёд посылаются роботы с ИИ, которые способны построить базу из местных материалов и без непосредственного участия человека. И человек прилетает уже не в пустыню, а в благоустроенный город. Так что для колонизации космоса ИИ, пожалуй, будет поважнее мощных ракетных двигателей.»

2025: Маск собирается запустить на Марс ракету с роботом Оптимус и ИИ. Так что уже близко к реализации.

2012: «Я полагаю, что нужно лет пятьдесят, чтобы появились первые версии реального искусственного интеллекта, подобному Инке, с которым можно разговаривать, не раздражаясь на его непонятливость или на то, что он не воспринимает вашу речь. …Такой ИИ должен быть не пустобрехом, а системой, способной на самостоятельный поиск и анализ важной для вас информации, а также на практически полезные советы.»

2025: Тут я поосторожничал, отнеся интеллектуального собеседника на 2060-е годы, хотя понятие интеллектуальность настолько размыто, то кое-то со мной согласится и сейчас. Но нельзя отрицать, что первые ИИ-собеседники уже появились, и пусть они пока не блещут, но эволюционируют с большой скоростью.

2012: «Я думаю, что настало коммерческое время для простеньких, но полезных ИИ. Не нужен распознаватель и синтезатор речи, не надо замахиваться на киберпоэта или киберпсихиатра – надо сделать для начала хоть что-то полезное, способное к самостоятельной работе. Например, сейчас поисковики по заданным словам почти мгновенно выдают кучу информации, которую приходится перебирать самому человеку. Теперь представим поисковик, которому человек задает 10-20 ключевых слов, а также предельный объем файла – 10 страниц — и сам уходит спать. Утром его ждет файл, в котором собраны полсотни наиболее интересных абзацев из разных источников, с их списком внизу, как в обычной статье. Просмотрев этот материал и самые интересные ссылки, школьник в два счета сделает нужный реферат, а учёный поймёт на каком уровне находится тема, которая его заинтересовала».

2025: Думаю, что все согласятся, что Grok и ChatGPT вполне стали такими интеллектуальными поисковиками, причем работающими гораздо быстрее, чем ожидалось – за считанные секунды.

2012: «Если взять большую базу данных – например, землетрясений, то она образует, как минимум, пространство пяти измерений – три координаты, время и магнитуда толчка. Зададимся простой задачей – сравнить сейсмоактивность в двух прямоугольных областях этого пространства и вычислить коэффициент корреляции между сейсмичностями, как функциями от времени. Легко понять, что выбор одной прямоугольной области по координатам и магнитуде дает 8 переменных. Вторая область даст ещё 8 переменных. Значит, чтобы перебрать хотя бы по 10 значений каждой переменной, нужно сделать 1016 (десять миллионов миллиардов) выборок из базы и вычислений коэффициента корреляции. В году 30 миллионов секунд. Сколько лет понадобиться обычному компьютеру, чтобы завершить эту задачку? Мы уж не говорим о том, что временная функция может иметь разный шаг усреднения, да хорошо бы проверить корреляцию и при временных сдвигах. Как решает эту задачу человек? Он делает расчеты и всё время анализирует – не блеснет ли где признак корреляции, который потребует углубления в данном направлении? И конечно, он может просмотреть нужную тропинку – рабочий день закончился, а со следующей недели в отпуск пора… Хоть бы кто сделал самостоятельный анализатор данных – пусть с интеллектом муравья, — который бы мог круглосуточно ползать по заданной рыхлой куче чисел в поисках жемчужин закономерностей и докладывать человеку раз в день: «Вот чего я нашёл, хозяин!»

2025: Думаю, что тут прогресс еще невелик, хотя несомненно, что ИИ оптимизирует поиск нужных вещей в базе данных. Но тут речь шла об эвристическом поиске, когда и человек не знает, что искать, и ИИ ищет все интересные закономерности, какие теоретически возможны.

2012: «Для человечества в целом важнее всего обучающие интернет-системы, которые бы позволили каждому подростку иметь персонального учителя, обладающему бесконечным терпением и готовому адаптироваться под уровень любого школьника, не насмехаясь над ним.»

2025: Может, я не в курсе, но, по-моему, пока таких систем, которые могли бы полноценно заменить учителя, нет. А нужны!

2012: «Выше я уже описал пару интеллектуальных программ, которые хорошо бы создать. Не надо гнаться за эффектностью, сделайте что-нибудь эффективное, минимально полезное большому количеству людей. И тогда люди потянутся к вашему интеллекту!»

2025: Речь шла о умном поисковике по интернету (что уже практически сделано) и по базам данных (что в процессе).

2012: «Но я подозреваю, что издатель научит «электронного писателя» так ловко имитировать человеческие чувства, что массовый читатель всё примет на веру и обрыдается…»

2025: Сделано: сейчас огромный процент трешевой масс-литературы пишется с помощью ИИ, со скоростью книжка за неделю. Всего-то: грамотные задания для ИИ и небольшой макияж потом.

2012: «Но направление выбрано верное, и нынешняя молодежь наверняка будет жить в эпоху Великого Инки.»

2025: Так оно и будет – вот-вот, думаю, на масштабе нескольких лет. ИИ делает рефераты (да и статьи с диссертациями гуманитарного толка), переводы, помогает в программировании и т.д. Но интересно подумать: а какие еще принципиальные прорывы в ИИ можно ожидать в ближайшем будущем? Вот какая мысль была в интервью:

2012: «Я не вижу никаких причин полагать, что будущий ИИ не будет способен на творческие научные прорывы, даже самого высокого полета, вроде общей теории относительности. Да он будет успешнее Эйнштейна! Переберёт все варианты релятивистской теории гравитации и смело предложит единственно правильный.»

2025: Я активно думаю в последнее время в этом направлении. Полагаю, что следующим большим прорывом будет ИИ, которые сможет проверять теоретические физико-математические статьи. Уже сейчас есть пакеты аналитических вычислений типа «Вольфрама» и т.д. Но физические теории – это нечто большее, там появляются физические аксиомы, асимметрия левой и правой части уравнений, отвечающая за причинно-следственную физическую связь. Кое-какие рассуждения на эту тему я включил в английское издание «Пульсирующей Вселенной», которое скоро выйдет (русское издание 2024 года еще можно успеть купить на Озоне https://www.ozon.ru/product/pulsiruyushchaya-vselennaya-nauchpop-knigi-pro-kosmos-gorkavyy-nikolay-nikolaevich-1615984186).

Я полагаю, что компания (или страна), которая построит такой специализированный ИИ, сорвет большой джек-пот, получив в руки инструмент, который позволит совершить научную революцию:

1. Переведет на другой уровень значительную часть научной работы. Причем речь идет не только не столько о каких-нибудь бесполезных космологиях, сколько о квантовых расчетах в области физики твердого тела, сверхпроводников, квантовых компьютеров и прочих полезных вещах.

2. Кардинально оптимизирует систему научного рецензирования и распределения грантов.

3. И многое чего, что сейчас трудно предвидеть.

Речь идет не о том, чтобы ИИ сам занимался наукой, а о том, что он сможет верифицировать научные работы с точки зрения математики и соответствия физическим теориям. После включения в логическую цепь человека, который генерирует гипотезы, ИИ станет полноценным соавтором - и это будет мощное ускорение научных исследований! Может, удастся через несколько лет сравнить эту идею с реальным развитием ИИ. Кстати, если кто-то из ИИ-людей и компаний заинтересуется ИИ в науке, то готов стать соучастником-консультантом.

Источник

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    Don’t be deceived by different testimonies online that is most likely wrong. I have made use of several recovery options that got me disappointed at the end of the day but I must confess that the tech genius I eventually found is the best out here. It’s better you devise your time to find the valid professional that can help you recover your stolen or lost crypto such as bitcoins rather than falling victim of other amateur hackers that cannot get the job done. ADAMWILSON . TRADING @ CONSULTANT COM / WHATSAPP ; +1 (603) 702 ( 4335 ) is the most reliable and authentic blockchain tech expert you can work with to recover what you lost to scammers. They helped me get back on my feet and I’m very grateful for that. Contact their email today to recover your lost coins ASAP…

  • 11.10.25 10:44 Tonerdomark

    A thief took my Dogecoin and wrecked my life. Then Mr. Sylvester stepped in and changed everything. He got back €211,000 for me, every single cent of my gains. His calm confidence and strong tech skills rebuilt my trust. Thanks to him, I recovered my cash with no issues. After months of stress, I felt huge relief. I had full faith in him. If a scam stole your money, reach out to him today at { yt7cracker@gmail . com } His help sparked my full turnaround.

  • 12.10.25 01:12 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 12.10.25 01:12 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 12.10.25 19:53 Tonerdomark

    A crook swiped my Dogecoin. It ruined my whole world. Then Mr. Sylvester showed up. He fixed it all. He pulled back €211,000 for me. Not one cent missing from my profits. His steady cool and sharp tech know-how won back my trust. I got my money smooth and sound. After endless worry, relief hit me hard. I trusted him completely. Lost cash to a scam? Hit him up now at { yt7cracker@gmail . com }. His aid turned my life around. WhatsApp at +1 512 577 7957.

  • 12.10.25 21:36 blessing

    Writing this review is a joy. Marie has provided excellent service ever since I started working with her in early 2018. I was worried I wouldn't be able to get my coins back after they were stolen by hackers. I had no idea where to begin, therefore it was a nightmare for me. However, things became easier for me after my friend sent me to [email protected] and +1 7127594675 on WhatsApp. I'm happy that she was able to retrieve my bitcoin so that I could resume trading.

  • 13.10.25 01:11 elizabethrush89

    God bless Capital Crypto Recover Services for the marvelous work you did in my life, I have learned the hard way that even the most sensible investors can fall victim to scams. When my USD was stolen, for anyone who has fallen victim to one of the bitcoin binary investment scams that are currently ongoing, I felt betrayal and upset. But then I was reading a post on site when I saw a testimony of Wendy Taylor online who recommended that Capital Crypto Recovery has helped her recover scammed funds within 24 hours. after reaching out to this cyber security firm that was able to help me recover my stolen digital assets and bitcoin. I’m genuinely blown away by their amazing service and professionalism. I never imagined I’d be able to get my money back until I complained to Capital Crypto Recovery Services about my difficulties and gave all of the necessary paperwork. I was astounded that it took them 12 hours to reclaim my stolen money back. Without a doubt, my USDT assets were successfully recovered from the scam platform, Thank you so much Sir, I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover for any of your bitcoin recovery, digital funds recovery, hacking, and cybersecurity concerns. You reach them Call/Text Number +1 (336)390-6684 His Email: [email protected] Contact Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Via Contact: [email protected] His website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 13.10.25 01:11 elizabethrush89

    God bless Capital Crypto Recover Services for the marvelous work you did in my life, I have learned the hard way that even the most sensible investors can fall victim to scams. When my USD was stolen, for anyone who has fallen victim to one of the bitcoin binary investment scams that are currently ongoing, I felt betrayal and upset. But then I was reading a post on site when I saw a testimony of Wendy Taylor online who recommended that Capital Crypto Recovery has helped her recover scammed funds within 24 hours. after reaching out to this cyber security firm that was able to help me recover my stolen digital assets and bitcoin. I’m genuinely blown away by their amazing service and professionalism. I never imagined I’d be able to get my money back until I complained to Capital Crypto Recovery Services about my difficulties and gave all of the necessary paperwork. I was astounded that it took them 12 hours to reclaim my stolen money back. Without a doubt, my USDT assets were successfully recovered from the scam platform, Thank you so much Sir, I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover for any of your bitcoin recovery, digital funds recovery, hacking, and cybersecurity concerns. You reach them Call/Text Number +1 (336)390-6684 His Email: [email protected] Contact Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Via Contact: [email protected] His website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 01:15 tyleradams

    Hi. Please be wise, do not make the same mistake I had made in the past, I was a victim of bitcoin scam, I saw a glamorous review showering praises and marketing an investment firm, I reached out to them on what their contracts are, and I invested $28,000, which I was promised to get my first 15% profit in weeks, when it’s time to get my profits, I got to know the company was bogus, they kept asking me to invest more and I ran out of patience then requested to have my money back, they refused to answer nor refund my funds, not until a friend of mine introduced me to the NVIDIA TECH HACKERS, so I reached out and after tabling my complaints, they were swift to action and within 36 hours I got back my funds with the due profit. I couldn’t contain the joy in me. I urge you guys to reach out to NVIDIA TECH HACKERS on their email: [email protected]

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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