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[Перевод] Возможности Искусственного Интеллекта в 2023 году. Эндрю Ын

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Эндрю Ын (Andrew Ng) — один из самых известных в мире экспертов в области искусственного интеллекта (ИИ). Является основателем DeepLearning.AI и Landing.AI, генеральным партнером AI Fund, председателем и соучредителем Coursera, а также преподавателем компьютерных наук в Стэнфордском университете. Сегодня мы подготовили перевод его выступления в Cemex Auditorium Стэнфордского университета, которое состоялось 26 июля 2023 года «Возможности Искусственного Интеллекта в 2023 году».



Ранее Эндрю Ын руководил командой Google Brain, которая помогла Google внедрить современные технологии ИИ. Около восьми миллионов человек (1 из 1000 человек на планете), прошли у него обучение по искусственному интеллекту. Через свою образовательную и исследовательскую деятельность, он смог изменить множество жизней.

Что такое ИИ?


Сегодня я хочу поговорить с вами о возможностях искусственного интеллекта. Я уже утверждал, что ИИ — это новое электричество. И одной из самых сложных вещей в понимании ИИ является то, что это общеприменимая технология, которая полезна не для одного какого-то приложения, но для множества других, подобно электричеству. Если бы вы спросили у меня, для чего полезно электричество, то ответ был бы не одна задача, ведь у него есть множество разных применений.

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Технологический ландшафт


Поэтому я бы хотел начать с того, что поделюсь тем, как я вижу технологический ландшафт. Это сможет привести нас к списку возможностей искусственного интеллекта. Я думаю, что лучший способ рассматривать ИИ – как набор инструментов, который включает в себя такие техники, как обучение с учителем, отлично справляющееся с распознаванием и классификацией объектов, а также генеративный ИИ, который является относительно новым направлением. Возможно, если вы знакомы с ИИ, то слышали и о других инструментах, но сегодня я буду говорить не о них, а сконцентрируюсь на том, что, на мой взгляд, является наиболее важными: обучение с учителем и генеративный ИИ.

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Обучение с учителем


Обучение с учителем подходит для разметки и вычисления входных данных в выходные или сопоставления A в B, учитывая, что вход A дает мне выходные данные.

Например, при работе с электронной почтой мы можем использовать обучение с учителем, чтобы отмечать ее как спам или не спам. Самым прибыльным применением обучения с учителем, с которым мне приходилось работать, является онлайн-реклама. Имея объявление, мы можем классифицировать вероятность того, что пользователь кликнет на него, и, следовательно, показывать ему более релевантную рекламу.

А, например, для автомобилей с автопилотом, имея данные сенсоров машины, мы можем определить, где находятся другие автомобили.

Одним из проектов, над которым работала моя команда в AI Fund, была оптимизация маршрута судна. Имея информацию о маршруте, которую использует или планирует использовать судно, мы можем определить, сколько топлива этот маршрут будет потреблять, и использовать эти данные для увеличения эффективности его расхода. Мы также проводили много работ по автоматизированному визуальному контролю на фабриках. Вы можете сделать снимок смартфона, который только что произведен, и понять, есть ли на нем царапина или другой дефект. Или, если вы хотите создать систему мониторинга репутации ресторанов, вы можете использовать программное обеспечение, которое анализирует отзывы о ресторанах в Интернете и отмечает их как положительные или отрицательные.

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Одна из замечательных особенностей обучения с учителем заключается в том, что оно полезно не только для одного конкретного случая, оно полезно для всех этих ситуаций.

Пример обучения с учителем


Если вы хотите создать систему для классификации отзывов о ресторанах, то для начала вы собираете несколько данных или создаете набор данных. Например, вы отмечаете:
  • «сэндвич с пастрами – отличный» – положительный отзыв;
  • «официанты медленные» – отрицательный отзыв;
  • «моя любимая курица карри» – положительный отзыв.

Здесь я показал три примера данных. Однако при создании проекта вы можете получить тысячи подобных данных

Рабочий процесс машинного обучения (ML) или проекта ИИ состоит в том, что вы получаете размеченные данные, возможно, даже тысячи примеров. Затем команда специалистов по ИИ обучает модель машинного обучения на основе этих данных. Потом вы находите облачный сервис для запуска обученной модели и передаете ей, например, «лучший бабл ти, который я когда-либо пил», и это будет отмечено как положительный отзыв.

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Я считаю, что прошедшее десятилетие можно назвать десятилетием обучения с учителем в больших масштабах. Примерно 10-15 лет назад мы обнаружили, что если обучать маленькую модель ИИ, например, небольшую нейронную сеть или небольшой алгоритм глубокого обучения, на недорогом компьютере, то по мере увеличения объема данных ее производительность медленно улучшалась, затем она выходила на плато и переставала использовать данные для постоянного улучшения. Но если бы вы обучали большую модель ИИ с использованием значительных вычислительных ресурсов, таких как мощные графические процессоры (GPU), то по мере увеличения объема данных, предоставляемых модели машинного обучения, ее производительность продолжала постепенно улучшаться.

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Именно поэтому, когда я возглавил команду Google Brain, я поручил команде создание больших нейронных сетей, которые мы затем обучили на большом объеме данных. И, к счастью, этот рецепт сработал. Я считаю, что идея использования больших вычислительных ресурсов и большого объема данных способствовала прогрессу в области ИИ в последнее десятилетие.

Виды ИИ


Если прошлое десятилетие можно было назвать десятилетием обучения с учителем, то в этом используется все, что у нас было в обучении с учителем, но с добавлением к нему генеративного ИИ. Многие из вас уже играли с ChatGPT, Bard и т. д, но использовав обычные подсказки (prompts) такие, как «Я люблю…». Если вы запускаете его несколько раз, то можете получить разные варианты ответов, такие как «бейгл с крем-сыром» или «мамин мясной рулет» или «встречаться с друзьями», и система ИИ может генерировать такие ответы.

Учитывая интерес к генеративному ИИ, я думаю, что стоит рассказать немного о том, как он работает. Оказывается, что в основе генеративного ИИ, по крайней мере, такого типа генерации текста, лежит использование обучения с учителем для многократного прогнозирования следующего слова в последовательности. Таким образом, если ваша система читает в Интернете предложение типа «моя любимая еда – это бейгл с крем-сыром и лососем», то это преобразуется в несколько образцов данных. Если она видит «моя любимая еда – это», то пытается угадать, что правильным следующим словом было бы «бейгл», или если видит «моя любимая еда – это бэйгл», то пытается угадать следующее слово, как «с», и далее аналогично, правильный вывод – «крем-сыром».

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Таким образом, если взять тексты, найденные в Интернете или других источниках, и, использовать эти входные и выходные данные и обучение с учителем, попытаться многократно предсказать следующее слово, обучить очень большую систему ИИ на сотнях миллиардов слов, а в случае самых больших моделей – более триллиона слов, то получится большая языковая модель типа ChatGPT.

Есть и другие техники, такие как RLHF (обучение с подкреплением на основе отзывов людей) для дополнительной настройки вывода ИИ, чтобы он был более полезным, честным и безвредным. В основе этой техники лежит использование обучения с учителем для многократного предсказания следующего слова. Вот что действительно позволяет достигнуть фантастического прогресса в области больших языковых моделей.

Большие языковые модели (LLM)


Есть еще одна тенденция, которая, на мой взгляд, пока недооценена, – это сила больших языковых моделей (LLM) не только как потребительского инструмента, но и как инструмента для разработчика.

Оказывается, есть приложения, на создание которых у меня раньше уходили месяцы, а теперь многие люди могут создавать их гораздо быстрее, используя большие языковые модели. В частности, рабочий процесс обучения с учителем, создание системы отзывов о ресторанах, скажем, заключается в том, что вам нужно получить кучу размеченных данных, что, возможно, займет 1 месяц. Мы получаем несколько тысяч точек данных. Затем команда специалистов обучает, настраивает и оптимизирует работу модели ИИ. Возможно, это займет 3 месяца. Затем происходит поиск облачного сервиса для запуска, проверка системы на работоспособность, распознавание. Это займет еще 3 месяца. Таким образом, вполне реальный срок создания системы машинного обучения коммерческого уровня составляет от 6 до 12 месяцев.

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Итак, создание и внедрение этих систем у команд, которыми я руководил, часто занимало примерно от 6 до 12 месяцев. И некоторые из них оказались действительно ценными. Это реалистичные сроки для создания и внедрения ИИ-системы коммерческого класса в отличие от ИИ на основе подсказок (промт-инжиниринг).

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Вы можете написать подсказку (prompt) за несколько минут или часов. А затем вы можете развернуть ее в облаке, и это займет несколько часов или дней. Так что теперь некоторые приложения ИИ, на создание которых у меня раньше уходило буквально полгода, а то и год, многие команды по всему миру могут создать за неделю. Это начинает открывать поток гораздо большего количества приложений ИИ, которые могут быть созданы. Сегодня многие до сих пор недооценивают масштаб потока пользовательских приложений ИИ, которые, по моему мнению, будут разрабатываться в ближайшем будущем.

Пользовательские приложения ИИ


Я знаю, что вы, вероятно, не ожидали, что я буду писать код в этой презентации, но именно это я и собираюсь сделать.

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Оказывается, вот это (слайд из презентации) весь код, который мне нужен, чтобы написать классификатор тональности сообщения (положительный отзыв или отрицательный). Некоторые из вас, я полагаю, знают Python. Импортируйте некоторые инструменты из OpenAI, а затем добавьте этот промпт:
prompt - “ “ “ Сlassify the text below delimited by three dashes (-) as having either a positive or negative sentiment.
- - -
I had a fantastic time at Stanford CSB! Learned a lot and also made great new friends!
- - -
“ “ “

Вот мой промпт. Затем я просто запускаю его. Я никогда не запускал его раньше. Система выдает, что это позитивное утверждение.
positive statement


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Это буквально весь код, который требуется для создания классификатора тональности сообщения. И поэтому сегодня разработчики со всего мира могут потратить около 10 минут, чтобы создать систему подобную этой.

Возможности ИИ


Одним из тех направлений, над которым я работал, была попытка проводить онлайн-курсы о том, как использовать промпт-инжиниринг, не только как инструмент для потребителей, но и как инструмент для разработчиков. Так что, говоря о технологическом ландшафте, я поделюсь своими мыслями о том, какие возможности в области ИИ я вижу.

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Схема показывает, какова, на мой взгляд, ценность различных технологий ИИ сегодня, и о чем я буду говорить через три года.

Подавляющее большинство финансовой ценности от ИИ сегодня, по моему мнению, приходится на обучение с учителем, где для одной компании, такой как Google, это может оцениваться в более чем 100 миллиардов долларов в год. Есть миллионы разработчиков, создающих приложения с помощью обучения с учителем.

Таким образом, он уже имеет огромную ценность, а также обладает огромной динамикой развития благодаря усилиям по поиску идей для приложений и их созданию. Потом идет генеративный ИИ – это захватывающий новый игрок, который пока намного меньше. Но есть другие инструменты, которые я включу для полноты картины.

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Если размер этих кружков отражает их вес сегодня, то вот до чего она может вырасти через три года.

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Так, обучение с учителем, которое и так уже очень масштабно, может удвоиться в ближайшие 3 года, превратившись из масштабного в еще более масштабное. А генеративный ИИ, который сегодня гораздо меньше, думаю, удвоится более чем в два раза благодаря количеству интереса разработчиков, венчурных инвестиций, крупных корпораций, изучающих возможности его применения. Отмечу, что 3 года – это очень короткий временной диапазон. Если технологии будут продолжать расти примерно такими же темпами, то через шесть лет они будут еще более значительными.

Вот эта область, заштрихованная зеленым или оранжевым цветом, – это та область, где есть возможность для новых стартапов или для крупных компаний, занимающих лидирующие позиции, чтобы создавать и получать прибыль. Я надеюсь, что вы усвоите из этого слайда то, что все эти технологии универсальны.

Так, в случае с обучением с учителем большая часть работы, которая была проделана за последнее десятилетие будет продолжена в следующем десятилетии. Она заключается в определении и реализации конкретных сценариев использования. Этот процесс начинается и для генеративного ИИ.

Итак, из этой части презентации я надеюсь, что вы вынесете то, что универсальные технологии полезны для решения множества различных задач, много ценного еще предстоит создать с помощью обучения с учителем. И даже несмотря на то, что мы еще не до конца разобрались с интересными вариантами использования обучения с учителем, у нас есть другой фантастический инструмент – генеративный ИИ, который еще больше расширяет набор вещей, которые мы можем делать с помощью ИИ.

Но есть одно предостережение, которое заключается в том, что на этом пути будут возникать краткосрочные проблемы. Поэтому я не знаю, может быть, кто-то из вас помнит приложение под названием Lensa. Это приложение, которое позволяет вам загружать свои фотографии, а затем выводит на экран классную картинку, на которой вы изображены в виде астронавта, ученого или еще кого-нибудь. Это была хорошая идея, и людям она понравилась. Его доходы взлетели до безумия, как это было в декабре прошлого года. И тогда получилось это (график на слайде).

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Lensa была хорошая идея, которая нравилась людям. Но это был относительно тонкий программный слой поверх чьих-то очень мощных API. Поэтому, несмотря на то, что это был полезный продукт, его бизнес не был защищен. Когда я думаю о таких приложениях, как Lensa, я вспоминаю, как Стив Джобс подарил нам iPhone. Кто-то написал приложение, за которое я заплатил $1,99, для включения светодиода и превращения телефона в фонарик. И это тоже была хорошая идея – написать приложение для включения светодиодного фонаря, но она не оправдала себя в долгосрочной перспективе… и не создала долгосрочной ценности, потому что была легко скопирована, по заниженной цене, и в конечном итоге была включена в iOS.

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С развитием iOS, с появлением iPhone, кто-то также придумал, как создавать такие вещи, как Uber, Airbnb и Tinder – это очень долгосрочные, защищенные бизнесы, которые создали устойчивую ценность. И я думаю, что с появлением генеративного ИИ или новых инструментов ИИ появилась возможность создания тех глубоких, очень сложных приложений, которые, надеюсь, смогут создать долгосрочную ценность.

Универсальные технологии


Итак, первая тенденция, о которой я хотел бы рассказать, заключается в том, что ИИ — это универсальная технология. И большая часть работы, которая нам предстоит, заключается в том, чтобы найти разные варианты его использования и создать их. Вторая тенденция, которой я хочу с вами поделиться, связана с тем, почему ИИ еще не получил более широкого распространения. Такое ощущение, что мы говорим об ИИ уже 15 лет или около того.

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Но если посмотреть на то, где сегодня проявляется ценность ИИ, то большая его часть по-прежнему сосредоточена в программах для потребителей. Как только вы выходите за пределы технологического сектора или сферы потребительского ПО, там происходит внедрение ИИ.

Почему же так происходит? Оказывается, если взять все существующие и потенциальные проекты ИИ и отсортировать их в порядке убывания стоимости, то слева от этой кривой, у ее вершины, находятся многомиллиардные проекты, такие как реклама, поиск в Интернете, рекомендации товаров в электронной коммерции или компании типа Amazon.

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Примерно 10-15 лет назад мы с друзьями придумали рецепт, как нанять, скажем, 100 инженеров для написания одного ПО для подачи более релевантной рекламы, применить его к миллиарду пользователей и получить огромную финансовую прибыль. Это работает. Но как только вы выходите за пределы Интернета пользовательского ПО, вряд ли у кого-то есть 100 миллионов или миллиард пользователей, для которых можно написать и применить одну часть программного обеспечения.

Поэтому, когда вы переходите к другим отраслям (мы идем от головы этой кривой слева к длинному хвосту) вот некоторые из проектов, которые меня радуют. Я работал с производителем пиццы, который фотографировал готовящуюся пиццу, потому что ему нужно было убедиться в том, что сыр распределен равномерно.

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То есть речь идет о проекте стоимостью 5 млн. долл. Но рецепт найма сотни инженеров или десятков инженеров для работы над проектом стоимостью 5 миллионов долларов не имеет смысла.

Или вот еще один замечательный пример. Работая с сельскохозяйственной компанией, мы выяснили, что если с помощью камер определить высоту пшеницы, а пшеница часто наклоняется из-за ветра, дождя или чего-то еще, и срезать ее на нужной высоте, то фермер сможет продать больше продовольствия, и это будет лучше для окружающей среды. Но и это еще один проект стоимостью 5 миллионов долларов. Старый рецепт найма большой группы высококвалифицированных инженеров для работы над этим проектом больше не имеет смысла. Аналогично с оценкой материалов, оценкой тканей, оценкой листового металла, и множеством проектов подобного рода.

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Так, слева, в верхней части этой кривой, находится небольшое количество многомиллиардных проектов, и мы знаем, как их реализовать, обеспечивая ценность. В других отраслях я вижу очень длинный хвост из десятков тысяч, назовем их, проектов стоимостью 5 млн. долларов, которые до сих пор было очень трудно реализовать из-за высокой стоимости кастомизации. На мой взгляд, интересной тенденцией является то, что сообщество специалистов по ИИ создает более совершенные инструменты, которые позволяют нам агрегировать эти сценарии использования и упрощают для конечного пользователя процесс настройки. Я вижу множество интересных инструментов с низким содержанием кода и без кода, которые позволяют пользователю настраивать систему ИИ.

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Это означает, что вместо того, чтобы беспокоиться о фотографиях пиццы, у нас есть инструменты… Мы начинаем видеть инструменты, которые могут позволить ИТ-отделу производства пиццы обучить систему ИИ на своих собственных фотографиях пиццы, чтобы реализовать стоимость в 5 миллионов долларов. И, кстати, эти картинки пиццы не находятся в Интернете. Поэтому Google и Bing не имеют доступа к ним. Нам нужны инструменты, которые могли бы использоваться самими пиццериями для создания, развертывания и поддержки их собственной системы ИИ, работающей с их фотографиями.

И в целом, технология, позволяющая это сделать, – это подсказки: текстовые и визуальные. Но в действительности большие языковые модели и подобные инструменты, или технология, называемая data-centric AI, помогают. Вместо того, чтобы просить пиццерию написать код, что является для них сложной задачей, мы можем попросить их предоставить данные, что оказывается более осуществимой задачей.

Вторая тенденция важна, потому что это ключевая часть рецепта использования ценности ИИ, который пока все еще ощущается очень концентрированным в мире технологий и потребительского ПО. И необходимо распространить это на все отрасли, на остальную экономику. Иногда легко забыть, что остальная часть экономики намного больше, чем мир технологий.

Как использовать эти возможности?


Итак, я поделился двумя тенденциями ИИ как универсальной технологии. С помощью них можно реализовать множество конкретных идей, а также инструментов с низким кодом, без кода, позволяющие развертывать ИИ в большем числе отраслей. Как мы будем реализовывать эти возможности?

Примерно 5 лет назад появилась загадка, которую я захотел решить. Я почувствовал, что сейчас возможно осуществление многих ценных проектов в области ИИ. И я думал, как бы нам их реализовать? Будучи руководителем команд в Google и Baidu, крупных технологических компаниях, я с трудом представлял себе, как можно управлять командой в крупной технологической компании для реализации самых разнообразных возможностей в разных областях – от морских перевозок до образования, финансовых услуг, здравоохранения и т.д. Это просто очень разные сценарии использования, очень разные рынки, очень разные клиентские базы и приложения.

Я почувствовал, что наиболее эффективным способом сделать это было бы, если бы мы могли запустить множество разных компаний.

Именно поэтому я создал фонд AI Fund, который представляет собой венчурную студию, создающую стартапы для реализации возможностей в области ИИ. И, конечно, помимо множества стартапов, у действующих компаний также есть много возможностей для интеграции ИИ в существующий бизнес.

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На самом деле, одна из закономерностей в действующих компаний – дистрибуция, часто является их существенным преимуществом. И если они грамотно разыграют свои карты, то смогут эффективно интегрировать ИИ в свои продукты. Если говорить более конкретно, где находятся эти возможности? Здесь я думаю о стеке ИИ.

На нижнем уровне находится аппаратное обеспечение, полупроводниковый слой. Там фантастические возможности, но очень капиталоемкие, очень концентрированные. Требуется много ресурсов, победителей относительно немного, поэтому некоторые люди могут играть там, но я лично не люблю такое.

Есть еще инфраструктурный слой. Тоже фантастические возможности, но также очень капиталоемкие и очень концентрированные. Поэтому я тоже склонен не играть там.

И еще есть слой инструментов для разработчиков. То, что я вам сейчас показал… Я действительно использовал API OpenAI в качестве инструмента. Также я думаю, что сектор инструментов для разработчиков является гипер конкурентным. Посмотрите на все стартапы, которые сейчас гоняются за OpenAI.

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Но будут и мега-победители. Я иногда играю на этом уровне, потому что в первую очередь, я думаю о значимом технологическом преимуществе, здесь вы можете получить больше шансов стать одним из мега-победителей. И, наконец, несмотря на то, что много внимания СМИ и шума уделяется слою инфраструктуры и инструментов разработчика, оказывается, что этот слой может быть успешным только в том случае, если прикладной слой будет еще успешнее.

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Это мы уже наблюдали на примере развития SaaS. Много шума и ажиотажа связано уровнем инструментов разработчика. Что вполне нормально. В этом нет ничего плохого. Но успех может быть достигнут только в том случае, если прикладной уровень будет еще более успешным, чтобы они могли генерировать чистый доход для оплаты инфраструктуры и уровня инструментов. Итак, позвольте мне привести один пример.

Amorai – это компания, которую мы создали и которая использует ИИ для коучинга в романтических отношениях. Хочу подчеркнуть, что я занимаюсь ИИ и, мне кажется, что я ничего не знаю о романтике. Если вы мне не верите – спросите мою жену, она подтвердит.

Когда мы решили создать Amorai, мы объединились с бывшим CEO Tinder, Ренатой Найборг (Renate Nyborg). Благодаря экспертизе моей команды в области ИИ и ее экспертизе в отношениях, мы смогли создать нечто довольно уникальное, используя ИИ для коучинга.

Сколько команд в мире одновременно являются экспертами в области ИИ и отношениях? Их крайне мало, поэтому на прикладном уровне я вижу много возможностей в условиях относительно небольшой конкуренции. Конкуренция в данном случае действительно ниже по сравнению с уровнями инструментов разработчика или инфраструктуры.

Создание стартапов


Я собираюсь рассказать вам рецепт, который мы разработали для создания стартапов. После многих лет итераций и улучшений, вот как мы их сейчас создаем.

У моей команды всегда был доступ к множеству разных идей, как внутренних, так и от партнеров. И я хочу рассмотреть процесс на примере одного из наших проектов, компании Bearing AI, которая использует ИИ для повышения топливной эффективности судов.

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Итак, эта идея пришла ко мне несколько лет назад, когда японский конгломерат, Mitsui, который управляет крупными линиями судоходства, обратился ко мне: «Эндрю, вы должны создать бизнес с использованием ИИ для повышения топливной эффективности судов».

Идея заключалась в том, чтобы представить это в виде карт (по типу Google Maps) для судов. С помощью них мы можем предложить судну оптимальный маршрут, зная конечную точку, время, к которому ему необходимо туда прибыть и то, что мы хотим сэкономить примерно 10% топлива.

Сначала мы тратим примерно месяц на проверку идеи. Перепроверяем, возможно ли это технически, а затем разговариваем с потенциальными клиентами, чтобы убедиться в рыночной потребности. И если проект проходит этот этап, мы нанимаем CEO, чтобы работать с нами над проектом.

В начале карьеры я проводил много времени над проектом самостоятельно, прежде чем привлекать CEO. Но после нескольких итераций мы поняли, что если сразу привлекать специалиста на эту позицию, мы избавляемся от кучи задач, связанных с передачей знаний или с тем, чтобы перепроверять то, что мы обнаружили. Сейчас мы сразу приглашаем лидера, поэтому процесс стал более эффективным.

Итак, в случае с Bearing AI, мы нашли фантастического CEO и успешного предпринимателя, Дилана Кейла. Затем мы провели с ним три месяца (шесть двухнедельных спринтов) над созданием прототипа и провести глубокую проверку у клиентов. Если проект проходит этот этап, и у нас есть примерно 66% выживаемости, мы выписываем первый чек, который дает компании ресурсы для найма исполнительной команды, создания ключевой команды, запуска минимально-жизнеспособного продукта и привлечения реальных клиентов. А затем, надеюсь, проект успешно привлекает дополнительные раунды внешнего финансирования и продолжает расти и масштабироваться.

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Я очень горжусь работой, которую мы проделали, чтобы поддержать идею Mitsui и Дилана Кейла в качестве CEO. И сегодня сотни судов, находящиеся в открытом море, прокладывают маршруты через Bearing AI. Сэкономленные 10% топлива превращаются, вероятно, в около $450 000 экономии на топливе на каждое судно в год. И, конечно, это намного лучше для окружающей среды. Я думаю, что этот стартап не существовал бы, если бы не работа Дилана и идея, предложенная Mitsui.

Мне нравится этот пример, потому что это еще одна идея стартапа, о которой я бы сам никогда не задумался. Конечно, я плавал на лодке, но что я знаю о морских перевозках? Глубокая экспертиза Mitsui вместе с Диланом и экспертизой моей команды в области ИИ сделали этот проект возможным.

Работая с ИИ я понимаю, что моя область – это ИИ, и все. У меня нет времени или ресурса для того, чтобы быть экспертом в морских перевозках, романтических отношениях, здравоохранении, финансовых услугах и так далее.

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Я понимаю, что могу помочь сделать точную техническую проверку, а затем использовать ресурсы ИИ и убедиться, что ИИ-технология строится быстро и качественно. Я понимаю, что я в силах помочь компаниям создать крепкую техническую команду. Но я также понимаю, что только сотрудничество с экспертами в области конкретной темы приводит к возникновению новых возможностей.

Конкретные идеи


Хочу поделиться с вами еще одной странной чертой, которую я узнал о создании стартапов – мне нравится участвовать только тогда, когда есть конкретная идея для проекта.

И это противоречит многим советам, которые можно услышать из методологии дизайн-мышления, где часто говорится: не спешите с решением. Изучите множество альтернатив, прежде чем приступать к решению. Честно говоря, мы пробовали так делать, это было медленно. На этапе разработки идеи, кто-то может прийти ко мне и сказать: «Эндрю, вы должны применить ИИ в финансовых услугах». Но поскольку я не являюсь экспертом в области финансовых услуг, для меня будет очень долго изучать финансы чтобы понять, что делать. То есть, в конце концов, можно добиться хорошего результата, но для меня это трудоемкий, медленный и очень дорогой процесс — пытаться изучать отрасль за отраслью.

В отличие от этого, один из моих партнеров предложил идею как шутку: давайте устраним рекламу, автоматически покупая каждый рекламируемый продукт в обмен на отсутствие рекламы. Это не очень хорошая идея, но она конкретная.

И оказывается, конкретные идеи можно эффективно проверить или опровергнуть. Они также дают команде четкое направление для выполнения. Я узнал, что в сегодняшнем мире, особенно в условиях ажиотажа, шумихи и ознакомлением многих людей с ИИ, есть много экспертов в данной области, которые глубоко размышляли о проблеме месяцами, иногда даже год или два. Но у них еще не было партнера для реализации. И когда мы встречаемся с ними и они делятся с нами идеей, это позволяет нам очень быстро перейти к валидации и созданию.

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И я считаю, что это работает, потому что есть много людей, которые уже занимались дизайн-мышлением – исследовали множество идей и отбирали действительно хорошие. И существует так много хороших идей, с которыми никто не работает. А они являются мощнейшим двигателем.

ИИ – очень мощная технология. Мои команды и я работаем только над проектами, которые двигают человечество вперед. И мы не раз отказывались от проектов из этических соображений, не смотря на то, что, по нашим оценкам, они были финансово эффективными. Иногда я поражаюсь креативностью людей, способных придумывать хорошие, а также действительно плохие, идеи которые кажутся выгодными, но на самом деле не должны быть созданы. Мы загубили несколько проектов по таким соображениям.

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Следует признать, что у ИИ сегодня есть проблемы с предвзятостью, справедливостью и точностью. Но технологии быстро совершенствуются. Я уже вижу, что сегодня системы ИИ менее предвзяты, чем полгода назад, и более справедливы, что вовсе не означает умаления важности этих проблем. Мы должны продолжать работать над этими вопросами. Но меня радует количество команд, упорно работающих над ними.

Когда я думаю о больших рисках ИИ, в первую очередь возникает – сокращение рабочих мест. На слайде диаграмма из работы нашего друга из Пенсильванского университета и некоторых сотрудников OpenAI, в которой анализируется подверженность различных рабочих мест автоматизации ИИ. Оказалось, что если при предыдущей волне автоматизации наиболее подверженными воздействию были низкооплачиваемые рабочие места, например, когда мы внедряли роботов на фабрики. При нынешней волне автоматизации более высокооплачиваемые рабочие места, расположенные дальше, справа от этой оси, подвергаются автоматизации в большей степени.

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Поэтому, даже если мы создаем большую ценность с помощью ИИ, я чувствую обязательство перед людьми. Корпорациям, правительству и нашему обществу следует заботиться о них и учитывать их потребности в работе.

Кажется, что каждый раз, когда наступает большая волна прогресса в области ИИ, она сопровождается волной ажиотажа по поводу универсального ИИ (AGI). 10 лет назад, когда глубокое обучение начало работать хорошо, было много шума вокруг AGI. И сейчас, когда генеративный ИИ работает также хорошо, возникла еще одна волна ажиотажа. Но я считаю, что до внедрения этих инструментов еще десятилетия – 30-50 лет, а может быть и больше. Надеюсь, что мы увидим их, однако я не думаю, что это случится в ближайшем будущем. Одной из проблем является то, что биологический путь к интеллекту, как у людей, и цифровой путь к интеллекту, идут очень разными путями. Большие модели языка умнее нас в некоторых ключевых аспектах, но гораздо глупее нас в других. И поэтому вынуждать их делать всё, что может человек – идея не из лучших на сегодняшний день. Но я надеюсь, что мы дойдем до этого.

Кроме того, существует много, на мой взгляд, раздутой шумихи о том, что ИИ создаст риск вымирания человечества. Честно говоря, я этого не вижу. Я просто не вижу, как ИИ может создать какой-либо значимый риск вымирания для человечества. Я думаю, что люди беспокоятся о том, что мы не можем контролировать ИИ. Но у нас много опыта, управления огромными структурами, такими как корпорации или национальные государства, которые намного могущественнее любого отдельного человека, и мы можем убедиться, что они, по большей части, приносят пользу человечеству. Кроме того, технологии развиваются постепенно. Так называемый сценарий «горячего взлета», когда сегодня технология не работает, а потом вдруг, в один прекрасный день, за одну ночь, она работает блестяще, и мы достигаем сверхразума, захватываем мир, просто нереален.

Я думаю, что технология ИИ будет развиваться медленно. Это дает нам много времени, чтобы убедиться, что мы контролируем его и можем управлять им в безопасности. И, наконец, если мы посмотрим на реальный риск вымирания для человечества, такой как, следующая пандемия или изменение климата, приводящее к массовой депопуляции некоторых частей планеты, ИИ будет ключевой частью их решения.

Если вы хотите, чтобы человечество выжило и процветало в течение следующих 1000 лет, то вместо того, чтобы замедлять ИИ, я предпочел максимально быстрое развитие ИИ.

Подводя итог, я считаю, что ИИ, как универсальная технология, создает много новых возможностей. Нас ждет много важной работы – создание конкретных сценариев использования. Надеюсь, в будущем у меня будет возможность взаимодействовать с многими из вас в этих областях. Так что, позвольте мне просто сказать вам всем большое спасибо.

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Источник

  • 22.06.26 21:51 kimberlyhebert786

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    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: Email: [email protected] Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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  • 24.06.26 22:01 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: Email: [email protected] Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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  • 26.06.26 01:04 robertalfred175

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  • 28.06.26 00:37 kimberlyhebertt673

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  • 05.07.26 14:44 lydiassmith567

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  • 05.07.26 14:44 lydiassmith567

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  • 06.07.26 16:20 Olga Ognjanović

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  • 06.07.26 16:31 Joseph Weigl

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  • 06.07.26 16:33 Jaran Løvlien

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  • 07.07.26 18:00 robertalfred175

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  • 07.07.26 18:01 robertalfred175

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  • 09.07.26 19:06 Toivo Walli

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  • 09.07.26 19:10 Misty Alexander

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  • 12.07.26 03:30 Kora Baltacha

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  • 13.07.26 23:49 [email protected]

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  • 15.07.26 11:53 Sarah Green

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  • 16.07.26 21:38 patricialovick86

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  • 16.07.26 21:38 patricialovick86

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  • 18.07.26 17:12 Malthe Larsen

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  • 18.07.26 23:51 bernalzenaida

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  • 19.07.26 04:10 Fraddy Pual

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  • 19.07.26 19:53 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 19.07.26 19:53 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 19.07.26 19:54 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 30.07.26 00:04 Ahmed

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  • 30.07.26 17:27 wendytaylor015

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  • 30.07.26 17:27 wendytaylor015

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  • 31.07.26 16:21 rssllhrnsb

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TEXT : (tatianasorina06 at G.Ma IL ..c 0 m ) Before committing money to any investment, take time to verify the legitimacy of the platform, confirm any relevant regulatory authorisations, and avoid investing more than you can comfortably afford to lose.

  • 01.08.26 15:05 keithwilson9899

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  • 01.08.26 15:05 keithwilson9899

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  • 03.08.26 20:05 Philip

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  • 03.08.26 20:06 Philip

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  • 04.08.26 11:05 Kisnoles

    Excellent analysis, thank you. I was particularly struck by how rigidly the skill sets the order: data processing and form come first, with color coming last. This really cures the habit of "first a pretty palette, then we'll figure it out." A palette validator using OKLCH + color blindness + WCAG is something most chart generators lack. And regarding the boundaries of competence, it's very clear. Where there's a self-checking loop (color), you delegate freely. Where there's a heuristic (form, data interpretation), you remain the final filter. This is a universal principle, not just for /dataviz. By the way, when you look at trading dashboards (including those of decent platforms like ExpertOption), it's immediately clear who thought about readability and who just threw in rainbow lines. Tools like this skill could greatly improve the quality of analytics. Thanks again for the detailed analysis – saved.

  • 04.08.26 12:37 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 16.08.26 01:44 Matt Kegan

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  • 18.08.26 04:59 marcushenderson624

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  • 19.08.26 14:50 BAYER7043

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  • 20.08.26 11:32 michaeldavenport218

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  • 23.08.26 20:02 leslieyee

    Excellent analysis by /dataviz! I was particularly struck by how strictly the order is defined: "data meaning first, color last" and how the validator actually adjusts the palette according to OKLCH, color blindness, and WCAG standards. These rules greatly improve the quality of charts. By the way, a similar approach to clean and legible charts is highly valued in trading—for example, on the ExpertOption platform, the interface and price visualization are designed to ensure information is read instantly and without unnecessary noise.

  • 25.08.26 13:44 lydiassmith567

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  • 30.08.26 15:37 [email protected]

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  • 01.09.26 17:34 Garry42

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  • 02.09.26 03:43 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 11.09.26 03:23 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 15.09.26 03:35 elioduncan

    I fell victim to a freelance web development contract scam that ultimately cost me CAD 4,000. It all started when I came across a job posting on Indeed Canada, a popular online job portal. The position seemed perfect: a freelance web developer role for an established company looking for someone to design and build a fully functional e-commerce website. The job promised a high payment of CAD 20,000 upon successful completion, which sounded like a great opportunity for me to gain experience and earn decent pay.The employer, who introduced himself as a project manager from a "well-known" tech company, was very persuasive and professional in our initial communication. He explained that the project involved developing a user-friendly, responsive online store for their client and that they had a strict timeline to meet. He assured me that the payment would be made promptly after completing the tasks. However, before starting the work, he told me that I would need to pay an upfront fee of CAD 4,000 to cover certain software tools and licensing fees required for the project. This was supposedly a part of their company policy for freelance contractors, ensuring access to their premium resources. The idea of working on a professional project, coupled with the promise of a substantial payout, convinced me to pay the upfront fee.As soon as I made the payment, the project manager became increasingly difficult to reach. He initially responded to my emails and provided some vague instructions on what the project would entail, but as time went on, communication slowed to a complete halt. I never received the required tools or any proper project details. My emails went unanswered, and any attempts to contact the company were met with silence. After waiting for weeks, I realized that I had been scammed.Desperate to recover my money, I turned to TechY Force Cyber Retrieval, a service that specializes in helping victims of online scams. They helped me track the payment and took legal steps to pursue the fraudsters. Through their guidance, I was able to recover the full CAD 4,000. TechY Force Cyber Retrieval worked with my bank to reverse the transaction and liaised with the authorities to trace the scammer's details.This was a hard lesson, and I now know to be highly cautious about online job offers that require upfront payments. It is crucial to research companies thoroughly and avoid any job that seems too good to be true, especially when it involves paying money upfront. WhatsApp https://wa.link/2x6ktp Mail. [email protected]

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  • 15.09.26 15:45 lydiassmith567

    HIRE A HACKER YOUR STOLEN CRYPTO RECOVERY / BTC / USDT / ETH WITH THE HELP OF CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER. I want to share my experience publicly regarding cryptocurrency wallet recovery, I highly recommend you to contact CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER, a professional private investigator in the Bitcoin world. They have a certified expert security team specializing in Bitcoin Recovery Services and have helped many people worldwide recover their lost funds. My wife and I were defrauded by an online manipulator posing as an experienced crypto investment professional. We lost $9.2 Million Stolen BTC in cryptocurrency and were left feeling homeless. After spending hours searching for a reliable crypto recovery service, I discovered CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER online. By patiently explaining my situation to their team, I was able to recover all my funds. Remarkably, my money was returned to my wallet in less than 24 hours. I am extremely grateful to CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER for their excellent assistance—they truly were a godsend in my difficult situation. If you have fallen victim to a cryptocurrency scam, you can reach CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER through the following channels Email: [email protected] OR Call/WhatsApp: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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