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[Перевод] Теория мёртвой экономики

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Вероятно, вам знакома теория мёртвого Интернета, гласящая, что бóльшая часть того, с чем мы сталкиваемся онлайн, сгенерировано ботами и для ботов, а роль людей редуцировалась до скукожившейся аудитории создаваемого машинами шума. В прошлом году больше половины нового контента Интернета было сгенерировано ИИ. Люди всё ещё есть в сети, они скроллят страницы, но эти страницы превратились в представление, срежиссированное машинами для аудитории, ещё не осознавшей, что это шоу не для неё.

Ужасно утомляет, когда в поисках живых умов, с которыми можно полемизировать и размышлять, мы находим бесконечный поток слопа. Вняв обещаниям эпохи сверхсвязности людей, мы допустили увядание наших совместных физических пространств, в результате обнаружив, что обетованные цифровые общества превратились в один большой рекламный щит, который всё в большей мере читают и создают боты.

Это само по себе печально, но я бы хотел поговорить кое о чём ещё более прискорбном: назовём это теорией мёртвой экономики.

Математика

У отрасли ИИ есть проблема с числами.

OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Meta AI, Microsoft: их суммарные инвестиции в крупномасштабную инфраструктуру ИИ сегодня исчисляется сотнями миллиардов долларов, а по прогнозам, в следующий десяток лет они перевалят за триллионы. Одна лишь OpenAI оценивается более чем в $800 миллиардов. Anthropic, у которой пока ещё не было ни единого прибыльного года, имеет стоимость того же порядка. Чтобы оправдать такие числа, требуется достаточно большой рынок.

Есть только один рынок подобных размеров: мировой рынок труда.

Пока мы радуемся тому, что осваиваем работу с файлами claude.md в Cowork, отрасль планирует для нас иное будущее. Каждая демонстрируемая инвесторам презентация ИИ-агентов, «выполняющих работу десяти аналитиков», говорит нам об одном и том же: товаром здесь стала замена рабочей силы. Более мягкие формулировки («второй пилот», «помощник», «расширение возможностей») — всего лишь маркетинг. Лежащая в основе финансовая модель требует устранения центров затрат на людей в масштабах цивилизации. Если этого не произойдёт, то ИИ-компании окажутся самыми переоценёнными активами в истории капитализма. Люди, выписывающие чеки, не имеют привычки сжигать триллионы долларов на улучшенное автозавершение текста и бесконечную рассылку всё более длинных корпоративных уведомлений, которые всё равно никто не читает.

Чтобы доказать свою ценность, ИИ-компании создают собственные бенчмарки. Бенчмарк GDPVal компании OpenAI оценивает качественность выполнения моделями задач 44 типов работников, от брокера по недвижимости до новостного аналитика. AI Productivity Index оценивает показатели моделей в четырёх конкретных профессиях: специалист по банковским инвестициям, консультант по менеджменту, помощник юриста крупной фирмы, лечащий врач-терапевт. Это орудия, прицелы которых направлены на класс профессионалов. Руководитель отдела анализа OpenAI рассказал New York Times1, что сегодня модели достигают «более чем 80-процентной успешности относительно живых профессионалов» на задачах, которые несколько месяцев назад не могла выполнять ни одна модель. Бывший банкир из исследовательской команды «постоянно испытывает потрясение от того, какой объём её предыдущей работы уже способны выполнять модели».

Давайте поверим им на слово. Допустим, технологии работают точно так же, как в рекламе, ИИ-системы учатся выполнять труд, требующий самых сложных когнитивных усилий, по цене в разы меньше, чем живые специалисты. Что произойдёт дальше?

Проследуем за деньгами в три этапа.

Этап первый: компания лицензирует ИИ, чтобы заменить существенную часть своей рабочей силы. Затраты падают, прибыли растут. Цена акций повышается. Получающие доход довольны. Когда CEO Block Джек Дорси в марте уволил почти половину своих сотрудников, мотивировав это использованием ИИ-агентов, инвесторы отреагировали увеличением цены акций компании на двадцать пять процентов. Рынок вознаградил за избавление от человеческого труда мгновенной огромной выгодой для владельцев акций.

Этап второй: уволенные работники перестают получать доход. Они урезают траты. Бизнесы, которые они поддерживали, сталкиваются со снижением прибыли. Часть этих бизнесов тоже начинает использовать ИИ для снижения затрат, увеличивая количество вытесненной рабочей силы. Во всей экономике сокращается потребительский спрос.

Этап третий: компания, уволившая своих сотрудников ради экономии средств, обнаруживает, что её клиенты преимущественно были работниками других компаний. Рост прибыли останавливается. Подписка на ИИ, которая должна была стать вложением в эффективность, оказывается вкладом в разрушение собственного рынка.

Экономисты Бретт Хэменуэй Фолк и Джерри Цукалас описали эту динамику в своей недавней статье с метким названием «Ловушка увольнений из-за ИИ». На конкурентных рынках автоматизирующаяся фирма получает полную экономию затрат от замены сотрудников, но испытывает при этом лишь долю последствий от итогового уничтожения спроса. На рынке с двадцатью конкурентами каждая компания ощущает на себе двадцатую часть уничтоженного ею спроса, остальное ложится на плечи её конкурентов. Возникает дилемма заключённого: каждая фирма рационально автоматизируется свыше оптимального для общества уровня, потому что индивидуальный стимул снижения затрат на труд всегда перевешивает распределённые, общие последствия уничтожения потребительских трат. Чем лучше ИИ, тех хуже ситуация: повышение продуктивности увеличивает разрыв в прибыльности от ускоренной относительно конкурентов автоматизации, что усиливает гонку вооружений, направленную в сторону к всеобщего провала.

Иногда увольнения начинают даже до того, как руководство узнаёт, справится ли искусственный интеллект с работой. Экономист Зои Хитциг, ранее работавшая в OpenAI, рассказала Times следующее: «Когда высшее руководство говорит, что сокращает рабочие места из-за ИИ, другим людям кажется, что нужно поступать так же. Вследствие этой динамики изменения могут происходить быстрее, чем они диктуются эффективностью». Стадное поведение маскируется под инновации.

Генри Форд понимал (по крайней мере, ему приписывают соответствующую фразу), что его работникам нужно зарабатывать достаточно для покупки его автомобилей. ИИ-экономика избавляется от работников, но надеется, что автомобили будут по-прежнему продаваться, только это ПО имеет практически нулевые затраты, а значит, предлагаемые преимущества полностью заключаются в устранении затрат на людей. Товаром становится уничтожение потребительской базы.

Оптимисты могут говорить, что это просто повышение производительности. Экономика и раньше осваивала автоматизацию; занятость в сельскохозяйственном секторе США упала с девяноста процентов до двух, но цивилизация выстояла. Дэвид Отор из MIT показал, что примерно шестидесяти процентов сегодняшних специальностей в 1940 году ещё не существовало. Новые технологии создают новые категории работ. Да, это правда. Но есть разница между наблюдениями из прошлого и законом природы, а оптимисты постоянно путают их. Сельскохозяйственный переход занял сто сорок лет. Карл Бенедикт Фрей из Оксфордского университета задокументировал, что промышленной революции понадобилось семьдесят лет для восстановления уровня заработков и занятости вытесненной рабочей силы. В течение этого времени заработки не менялись, доля рабочей силы в прибыли обрушалась, доходы росли, взлетел уровень неравенства, а в политике это вылилось в чартизм и широкое распространение общественных переворотов. Фрей формулирует это так: «Большинство экономистов признаёт, что технологический прогресс может в краткосрочной перспективе вызывать проблемы. Однако редко отмечают, что этот краткий срок вполне может оказаться длиной в человеческую жизнь».

Сравним эту хронологию с условиями, в которых сейчас работает отрасль ИИ. Бывший заместитель директора Национального экономического совета Бхарат Рамамурти провёл параллели с «китайским шоком»: волной сокращений в производственном секторе, изменившей политику США после переноса промышленности за рубеж. «Китайский шок разворачивался на протяжении множества лет, а нынешний может произойти за два года. Эти компании потратили там много денег на разработку моделей, что на них будет оказываться огромное давление, вынуждающее генерировать прибыль посредством быстрого внедрения», — рассказал он Times.

Предыдущие процессы автоматизации замещали определённые задачи в рамках профессий. Механический ткацкий станок заменил ручное ткачество, электронные таблицы заменили ручные вычисления и так далее. В каждом из случаев технология использовалась в узкой нише. Универсальный ИИ угрожает полностью и одновременно заменить интеллектуальный труд во всех отраслях. Экономист Василий Леонтьев предвидел это в своей работе 1983 года, где сравнил человеческий труд с поголовьем лошадей. Поголовье лошадей в США выросло с девяти миллионов в 1840 году до двадцати одного миллиона в 1900 году. Казалось, что оно защищено от технологических изменений. За шестьдесят лет после появления двигателя внутреннего сгорания поголовье упало на 88 процентов. Лошадей забивали не по злому умыслу, их стало экономически невыгодно содержать. Леонтьев утверждал, что нет никаких экономических законов, препятствующих тому, чтобы это произошло и с людьми.

Дарон Аджемоглу, получивший в 2024 году Нобелевскую премию по экономике, выяснил, что с 1987 по 2017 год «влияние замещения новыми технологиями намного перевесило повышение продуктивности и восстановление рабочих мест». Новые задачи не материализовывались достаточно быстро для того, чтобы ими могли заниматься замещённые работники. Его отношение к ИИ ещё более критично: фирмы внедряют «излишнюю автоматизацию», используя ИИ для уничтожения рабочих мест без генерации существенно меньших затрат на производство, в то же время накладывая существенные социальные затраты. Во многих областях технология недостаточно хороша для того, чтобы оправдать замещение ею. Это автоматизация ради повышения биржевой цены, а не истинной продуктивности.

Кто будет потребителем, когда потребитель — это тот, кого вы и уничтожили?

Политический вакуум

Экономика, не требующая человеческого труда, вызовет политический кризис, с которым ранее не сталкивалась ни одна демократическая система.

Демократическое правление основывается на сделке настолько древней, что мы забыли о её существовании. Управляемые обладают чем-то, что нужно управляющим: труд, налоги, военная служба, потребительские траты. Эта зависимость — демократический рычаг для оказания влияния. Вся система работает, потому что власть распределена, а она распределена, потому что людям наверху нужно что-то от людей внизу.

А теперь уберите из этого уравнения труд и посмотрите, что произойдёт.

Когда выгода, генерируемая ИИ-системами, принадлежит горстке корпораций, которые уже и так лучше всех справляются с оптимизацией налогов, каждый фискальный механизм демократического правления одновременно начинает испытывать дефицит. Налогооблагаемая база разрушается. Коллективные сделки становятся рудиментарными (работодатели, которым не нужны работники, не ведут с ними переговоров). Расходы потребителей сокращаются. Двигатель концентрации благ r > g Пикетти разгоняется, потому что ИИ обрывает последнее звено между накоплением капитала и необходимостью человеческого труда как средства производства. Согласно одной из аналитических работ, без перераспределения «практически всё в конечном итоге будет принадлежать тем, кто был самым богатым на момент совершения перехода».

При этом общество само финансировало исследования, благодаря которым это стало возможно. Архитектура трансформеров, крупномасштабные модели обучения, прогресс в полупроводниковых технологиях — всё это публично или квазипублично финансировалось через университеты, DARPA и национальные лаборатории. Общество несло все риски. Частные компании получили все выгоды. В последние шестьдесят лет такая ситуация крайне распространена в технологическом прогрессе. Как это сформулировал Маццукато, «ИИ-риски становятся ещё одним движком извлечения ренты, а не создания ценности». Мы субсидировали революцию, а теперь нам говорят смириться с замещением, ведь такова цена прогресса, выгоду от которого получает кто-то другой.

Вы всё ещё можете голосовать (и продолжайте голосовать за людей, которые понимают это и хотят остановить). Но мы голосуем за управление уменьшающимся набором ресурсов, в то время как реальная экономика работает в параллельной системе, на которую мы имеем всё меньшее влияние.

Создающие эти системы люди прекрасно это понимают. CEO Anthropic Дарио Амодеи заявил: «Баланс сил в демократии обусловлен тем, что среднестатистический человек имеет вес благодаря созданию экономической ценности. Если она отсутствует, то я думаю, ситуация становится пугающей». CEO одной из трёх ведущих ИИ-компаний рассказывает нам, что создаваемая им технология подорвёт материальный базис демократического правления. Он осознаёт проблему. Он строит то, что вызывает её. Его компания не поддержала ни единого законопроекта для устранения проблемы. Когда сооснователю Anthropic Джеку Кларку задали вопрос о законодательстве, он назвал это «концом очень длинной цепи работ».

В 2009 году Питер Тиль написал, что больше не верит в совместимость свободы и демократии. Его логика была такой: демократические системы обеспечивают регулирование, перераспределение и подотчётность; всё это мешает выдающимся людям менять мир. Если вы создаёте самую трансформативную технологию в истории человечества, демократический контроль становится препятствием. Стоит отметить, что он говорит не о вашей или моей свободе. Мы не имеем значения.

Эти взгляды получили своих последователей. Структура политических трат, приобретение медиа, дипломатия государственных фондов, в рамках которой Сэм Альтман ездит по Ближнему Востоку и заключает сделки с автократическими правительствами: это рациональное поведение для людей, пришедших к выводу, что демократическое правление — устаревший институт, который следует обходить, если он пытается вмешаться.

Автократии — более подходящие покупатели этой технологии, чем демократии; именно поэтому олигархи быстро переориентировали свою поддержку в сторону Трампа и MAGA. Демократическое правительство, внедряющее ИИ для замещения своей рабочей силы, столкнётся с последствиями во время выборов. Авторитарное правительство не сталкивается с такими ограничениями, и наряду с экономической эффективностью получает дивиденды от надзора за населением и его контроля. Саудовская Аравия, Объединённые Арабские Эмираты, Сингапур: всё это страны с обширным капиталом, централизованным принятием решений, отсутствием подотчётности электорату и активным интересом к технологиям контроля. Это один из мотивирующих факторов привлекательности Трампа для Кремниевой долины: его и приспешников можно купить; к тому же, что столь же важно, они не преданы демократии. Экономические стимулы ИИ-компаний направлены в сторону сил с наименьшим количеством механизмов демократической подотчётности.

Неприкаянность

Все предлагавшиеся решения массового замещения людей ИИ рассматривали этот процесс, как задачу распределения ресурсов. Безусловный базовый доход. Программы переобучения. «Экономика праздности». Предполагалось, что если давать людям деньги, они найдут смысл жизни в хобби и общении. Они будут писать картины, ухаживать за садами, наконец-то напишут книгу.

Это антиисторическая чушь.

Нам не нужно гипотетически рассуждать о том, что произойдёт, когда общество потеряет свою экономическую функцию. В работе Энн Кейс и Ангуса Дитона, посвящённой «смертям от отчаяния», исследовалась растущая волна суицидов, передозировок наркотиками и смертности от алкогольной болезни печени, сконцентрированных в наименее образованных популяциях, ранее зависевших от производства. Механизм заключается не только в обеднении. Мы теряем всякий смысл экономического предназначения, а с ним социальный статус и перспективы будущего. В сообществах, организованных вокруг пропавших отраслей производства, работу заменили опиоиды и домашнее насилие, а ожидаемый срок жизни в самой богатой стране мира год за годом падает.

Молли Киндер из Брукингского института указала на эту связь в статье NYT: «Наша экономика растёт беспрецедентным образом, а цены падают, но в этой ситуации были и явные проигравшие». Нарративы ИИ-компаний об избытке копируют те же самые обещания, которые давали проповедники глобализации. На этот раз, проигравшие обнаружатся не только в промышленных городах страны. «Я провела интервью со множеством студентов колледжей, очень боящихся будущего. И их нарратив в точности совпадает с нарративом синих воротничков», — рассказала Киндер. Разработчик ПО из Сан-Франциско двадцати с небольшим лет и замещённый фабричный работник из Огайо задаются одним и тем же вопросом: «что будет, когда рынок решит, что мои умения ничего не стоят?».

Ещё одно структурное измерение в этот вопрос добавляет работа Гая Стэндинга о «прекариате». Последствия перманентной экономической неустойчивости психологически разъедают целостность общества, вне зависимости от того, платится ли безусловный базовый доход (ББД). Четыре десятка лет неолиберальной политики плюс цифровое ускорение уже создали этот не обладающий стабильностью класс. Ускорение ИИ расширит его, включив в него получивших высшее образование профессионалов, считавших себя в безопасности.

Пикетти заявил, что ББД не решает фундаментальных структурных проблем: «неравного доступа к образованию и здравоохранению, низкооплачиваемой и низкопродуктивной работы, нефункционирующие рынки, коррупции и регрессивных систем налогообложения». Данные опросов Дэвида Шора подкрепляют это мнение с другой стороны: ББД непопулярен у американского электората; шансы на успех имеют федеральные гарантии трудоустройства. Людям не нужны подачки. Им нужна работа. Им нужен смысл в жизни.

Собственные исследования Anthropic задокументировали нечто худшее, чем замещение: активную потерю умений. Разработчики-джуны, пользовавшиеся кодинг-агентами, не выполняли задачи намного быстрее, а по данным опросов, проводившихся после выполнения работы, понимали её меньше. Технология разлагает умения следующего поколения работников, параллельно конкурируя с ними за их рабочие места. Аргумент о возможности переподготовки предполагает, что для сохранения конкурентоспособности люди могут осваивать новые навыки. Однако свидетельства показывают, что инструменты препятствуют развитию навыков.

ИИ-компаниям нужно оправдывать свою рыночную стоимость, поэтому нам предстоит чрезвычайная по современным меркам социальная нестабильность. Десятки миллионов людей, находящиеся в своём продуктивном возрасте, не имеющие экономической функции и чёткого пути к её обретению, ясно осознают, что причиной этого стали самые богатые люди за всю историю человечества. Штиглиц указывает, что ИИ будет атаковать «рутинные рабочие места белых воротничков» — офисных сотрудников с высшим образованием, которые считали себя защищёнными от разрушения производства. Бухгалтеры, аналитики, младшие юристы, радиологи, разработчики ПО — класс профессионалов, составляющий фундамент политической стабильности в развитых демократиях.

Разумеется, никто не хочет насилия, но люди, вероятно, никогда не открывавшие учебников по истории, невероятно эффективно создают условия для его возникновения. В апреле кто-то пытался поджечь дом Сэма Альтмана коктейлем Молотова. Ещё один нападавший выбрал своей целью депутата городского совета Индианаполиса, утвердившего проект строительства дата-центра. CEO Palantir Алекс Карп сказал на недавней встрече следующее: «Самая большая проблема внедрения ИИ в нашей стране — это политическая нестабильность. Когда мы общаемся с коллегами в личных встречах, я говорю им, что страна может взорваться политически, и в этом случае никто из нас ничего не заработает». Надо отдать Карпу должное, он произносит это вслух. Большинство его коллег ограничивает общение на такие темы исчезающими чатами Signal, в которых, как сообщает Джасмин Сан, высшее руководство хвалится друг перед другом специальностями, которые оно планирует автоматизировать.

Мальчики, вообразившие себя королями философии

Через Кремниевую долину — от программы Thiel Fellowship до блогов рационалистов и движения эффективного альтруизма — проходит определённая линия мышления, представители которой относятся к собственной интеллектуальной системе взглядов с той же серьёзностью, что и к непререкаемому откровению. Эти люди убеждены, что находятся на переднем крае человеческой мысли.

Они действуют на уровне второго курса философии, вооружённые невероятной уверенностью и незнанием контраргументов.

Начнём с Ницше, потому что Кремниевая долина любит Ницше; точнее, ту его версию, узнав о которой он сошёл бы с ума быстрее, чем от сифилиса. Концепцию Сверхчеловека используют в качестве оправдания выдающегося основателя, визионера, вознёсшегося над традиционной моралью, потому что он действует на более высоком уровне. Ницше диагностировал кризис смысла после развала метафизической определённости, а не писал философию управления для людей, разбогатевших на продаже рекламы. Сверхчеловек — это связь личности с созданием смысла в безбожной Вселенной. Он никак не связан с тем, избежит ли Питер Тиль демократической подотчётности. Ницше бы классифицировал этих людей, как последних , которые моргают, говорят «счастье найдено нами» и путают удобство и оптимизацию с развитием человека. Ницше просто размотал бы их.

Паттерн повторяется. Эффективный альтруизм — это утилитаризм, заново выдуманный людьми, которые, очевидно, никогда не читали Бернарда Уильямса, не знают о мучительной борьбе Дерека Парфита со следствиями консеквенциалистского рассуждения и не изучали философскую литературу за два последних века, в которой объясняется, почему наивные вычисления ожидаемой выгоды в случае применения без ограничивающих принципов приводят к чудовищным результатам. Движение эффективных альтруистов само привело себя к катастрофе имени Сэма Бэнкмана-Фрида, потому что избрало систему нравственных ценностей, не осознавая её слабых сторон. Вот, что происходит, когда прогуливаешь лекции и сразу идёшь на экзамен.

Лонгтермизм, философский движок ускорения ИИ, признают это его проповедники или нет, на самом деле, — перегретые воззрения Парфита, но без его строгости. Аргумент лонгтермизма (мы должны оптимизировать действия ради благополучия триллионов будущих гипотетических будущих людей, а современные затраты приемлемы в качестве средства достижения этой цели) компетентный этик сможет разбить в пух и прах за пару часов. У этого мировоззрения нет ограничивающего принципа. Оно не может отличить истинную моральную актуальность от эгоистичного оправдания уже выполняемых действий их космической важностью. На практике, это машина для генерации оправданий концентрации власти людьми, решившими, что именно они лучше всего подходят для облагодетельствования человечества в будущем. Очень удобно!

Сообщество рационалистов заново открыло для себя байесовскую эпистемологию и носится с ней, как с откровением, очевидно, понятия не имея, что философия науки прорабатывает эти вопросы уже с 1920-х. С постами в блогах обращаются, как с фундаментальными текстами. Люди, никогда не читавшие Куна, Лакатоса и Фейерабенда, создают с нуля эпистемологию, восхищаются созданным, а затем используют её в качестве интеллектуальных кирпичей для принятия решений, влияющих на миллиарды людей. Их уверенность обратно пропорциональна глубине. Это крупномасштабный эффект Даннинга-Крюгера.

Интеллектуальная нищета простирается и на экономику. Аджемоглу выяснил, что всего 4,6% задач экономически выгодно автоматизировать при помощи ИИ. По его оценкам, суммарное влияние ИИ на продуктивность в течение следующего десятилетия составит 0,66%. В 2023 году, когда мы ещё не знали возможностей этой технологии, Goldman Sachs прогнозировал 7%. McKinsey прогнозирует от 0,5% до 3,5% ежегодно. Кто-то катастрофически ошибается; при этом Нобелевскую премию получили не люди, тратящие деньги на ИИ. Более девяноста процентов опрошенных в 2025 году компаний не заметили существенного влияния на занятость и продуктивность, несмотря на вложенные в ИИ четверть триллиона долларов. Торстен Слок: «ИИ уже везде, кроме макроэкономических данных». Эти люди решили, как будет выглядеть будущее, и тратят чужие деньги, чтобы реализовать его.

Эти сволочи постоянно уличают сами себя. В апреле OpenAI опубликовала статью «Промышленная политика для века интеллекта» с кучей радикально прогрессивных предложений: 32-часовая рабочая неделя, увеличение налогов на корпорации и доходы с капитала, «фонд общественного благосостояния», предоставляющий всем гражданам долю акций в ИИ-компаниях. В то же время президент OpenAI способствовал финансированию специального комитета политических действий, который потратил более двух миллионов долларов на рекламу против Алекса Борса; это кандидат в Конгресс от штата Нью-Йорк, единственное преступление которого заключалось во введении ограничивающих правил для крупных разработчиков ИИ и в предложении налога на ИИ для финансирования прямых платежей американцам. Компания сняла ограничения на прибыль, которые раньше не позволяли инвесторам получать более чем стократную прибыль от их исходных инвестиций. Главный лоббист OpenAI Крис Лехан систематически снижал приоритет исследований, которые могли привести к нелестным результатам. «Когда кто-нибудь писал статью, в которой говорилось о негативном аспекте ИИ, он говорил: "Мы не будем публиковать ничего о проблеме, пока у нас нет её решения"», — рассказал один из его коллег. Сам Лехан формулирует это так: «Нам нужна прикладная, а не теоретическая физика». Рассказывайте истории, которые помогают нам, а не правду.

Студент-первокурсник, неправильно понявший Ницше, напишет плохое эссе и получит тройку. Миллиардер, неправильно понявший Ницше, создаёт на этом ошибочном понимании целую политическую философию и инвестирует в неё ВВП небольшой страны. Это просто безумие.

В этих людях нет основательности. Они серьёзно относятся к накоплению и к победам, но несерьёзны в отношении вопросов, важных для того, что они строят: чем мы обязаны друг другу, что делает жизнь стоящей, что произойдёт с цивилизацией, если избавиться от материального базиса человеческой деятельности. Эти вопросы целое тысячелетие занимали лучшие умы в истории человечества. Размышления о них людей из Кремниевой долины ограничиваются чтением CliffsNotes на трансатлантическом рейсе; по прибытию они уже уверены, что им известно всё.

И эти люди хотят перестроить цивилизацию.

Человек напротив вас

Альбер Камю разошёлся с Жаном-Полем Сартром и французскими философами во взглядах на абсолютно конкретный политический вопрос: можно ли использовать живущих сейчас людей как приемлемые потери при построении лучшего будущего?2

Сартр и марксисты ответили утвердительно. У истории есть направление. Революция требует жертв. Камю был против. Любая система взглядов, подчиняющая живых людей гипотетическому будущему, уже совершает фундаментальную нравственную ошибку. Как только ты примешь эту логику, пропадает ограничивающий принцип. Становится возможным оправдать любое преступление. Любые масштабы страданий современников можно рационализировать, как необходимый вклад в великую цель.

Такова структура аргументации в пользу ускорения ИИ. Технология в конечном итоге принесёт пользу человечеству (триллионам будущих людей, жизни в избытке и полноте смысла, которые мы едва можем себе представить), поэтому современные проблемы допустимы. Замещённые работники, опустошённые города, разрушение демократических рычагов, концентрация власти в руках горстки частных лиц, освободивших себя от последствий реализации собственного проекта: всё это прискорбно, но необходимо. Расчёты ожидаемой пользы сходятся.

Основатели стартапа Mechanize, заявленная миссия которого заключалась в «обеспечении полной автоматизации экономики», проговорили эту логику чётко: «единственный выбор заключается в том, ускорим ли мы эту технологическую революцию сами, или дождёмся, пока её инициируют другие в наше отсутствие». Технологический детерминизм как нравственный абсолют. Будущее неизменно. Выбрать можно только создавать его первыми. Следовательно, ничто из того, что мы делаем, не требует оправдания, потому что конечная цель никогда от нас не зависела. Мы аргументируем свои действия так же, как марксисты, отправлявшие диссидентов в ГУЛАГ.

Камю в своём интеллектуальном наследии сделал ставку на то, что стоящий перед вами человек — не аргумент функции полезности. Его страдание не оправдывается будущим состоянием дел, которое мы можем никогда и не увидеть. Его достоинство нельзя обменять на прогнозируемые результаты. Расчётная единица — это человек, существующий сейчас (имеющий работу, которую скоро потеряет, семью, которую нужно обеспечивать, общество, зависящее от работающей местной экономики), а не абстрактное человечество. И не триллионы людей будущего, которых лонгтермисты привлекают на свою сторону, чтобы обосновать свои расчёты ожидаемой пользы.

Если отказаться от этого обязательства, открываются двери для любой рационализированной жестокости, приведшей в двадцатом веке к сотне миллионов жертв.

Весь проект ускорения ИИ основан на отказе от него. Его авторы призывают современных людей нести затраты ради будущих выгод, которые они могут никогда не увидеть, распределять блага людям, которых ещё нет, под управлением самоназначенного класса, полностью изолировавшего себя от последствий. Если подумать, то своим предложением о «безусловных базовых вычислительных ресурсах» Альтман признаёт, что создаваемое им будущее требует нового механизма распределения. По этому же предложению именно он будет заниматься распределением. Это феодализм под более привлекательным брендом.

Джасмин Сан недавно сообщила, что источники из технологической отрасли «в личных беседах выражают всё более серьёзные опасения о влиянии искусственного интеллекта на рынок руда, но когда я включаю микрофон, они внезапно становятся оптимистами». Они знают, что строят. Они знают, как это повлияет на мир. На публике они демонстрируют оптимизм, потому что в противном случае им пришлось бы признать, что технология, на которую они поставили свои карьеры и состояния, приведёт к обнищанию существенной части населения, но они всё равно продолжают это делать. Амодеи написал, что Anthropic «в настоящий момент рассматривает различные перспективы для собственных сотрудников»; из этого можно сделать вывод, что даже люди, создающие технологию, могут стать излишними для её потребностей. Он сформулировал это в сострадательном ключе, но если перечитать заявление, то в нём CEO говорит своим работникам, что их работа тоже временная.

Окно

Я не хочу задерживаться на том, способен ли ИИ на то, что заявляют компании. Это вполне может быть так, хотя из свидетельств пока можно сделать вывод, что разрыв между рекламой и продуктом огромен, а серьёзные экономисты полагают, что рост производительности составит долю от того, что прогнозирует отрасль ИИ. Однако главным выводом Аджемоглу стало то, что для разрушительности ИИ необязательно быть революционным. «Посредственная» автоматизация (технология, посредственно справляющаяся с замещением работников, но достаточно дешёвая для её использования) всё равно замещает людей в больших масштабах, обеспечивая при этом неудовлетворительную производительность. Наихудшим результатом может быть не сверхинтеллектуальный ИИ, а адекватный ИИ, агрессивно внедряемый компаниями, стремящимися повысить стоимость активов; они избавляются от рабочих мест, задачи которых ИИ не может выполнять качественно, потому что этого требуют ежеквартальные стимулы.

Думал ли серьёзно кто-нибудь из обладающих властью формировать этот переход, что это будет значить для современных людей, не имеющих во всём этом права голоса?

Да хрен там.

Временное окно для смены ответа на этот вопрос не бесконечно. Уже начался процесс захвата регулирующих органов: связанные с ИИ инвестиции составляют 39% экономического роста США за три первых квартала 2025 года, из-за чего федеральное правительство лично заинтересовано в том, чтобы поддерживать этот бум. Сам Амодеи признаёт, что это приводит «к нежеланию технологических компаний критиковать правительство США и к поддержке правительства в избавлении от всяческого регулирования ИИ». Регулятор и регулируемые пришли к одному общему интересу. Асимметрия знаний между законодательной властью и отраслью, над которой она должна надзирать, непреодолима. Цикл обратной связи (ИИ-системы, консультирующие по участию ИИ-систем в государственном управлении) замыкается.

Существуют уже известные способы вмешательства. Предоставление обществу доли владения инфраструктурой ИИ. Агрессивное применение антимонопольного законодательства. Налоговый режим для автоматизированного труда. Рецепт Бранко Милановича прямолинеен: шире распределить владение капиталом, агрессивнее облагать налогами наивысшие доходы с капитала. Реализовать всё это технологически не сложно. Для всего этого требуются функционирующие демократические институты, готовые бросить вызов богатейшим компаниям. Эти компании, с которых следовало бы взимать налоги, тратят миллионы долларов, чтобы победить предлагающих это политиков.

Мёртвая экономика не означает, что не будет происходить ничего. Произойдёт многое. ВВП может даже увеличиться; связанные с ИИ инвестиции уже искусственно поддерживают его. Мёртвая экономика — это система, в которой происходит многое, но ни для чего из этого не нужен человек. В ней производственная мощность цивилизации ограничена системой, в которой у вас нет доли, участия и возможности голосовать. Где построившие её люди говорят вам, что, по их мнению, права голоса у вас быть не должно. Где они выражают опасения в личных беседах и демонстрируют оптимизм на публике. Где они публикуют статьи, призывающие к радикальному перераспределению, одновременно финансируя уничтожение предложивших его политиков.

Примечания

  1. В этом эссе часто используется выдающаяся статья Джасмин Сан в New York Times за 30 апреля 2026 года, которую можно найти по ссылке: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/opinion/ai-labor-work-force-silicon-valley.html

    Я не буду давать указания на все цитаты из статьи Сан, поэтому если авторство прямой цитаты не приведено, значит, я взял её из отчёта Сан.

  2. Это событие, вызванное публикацией Камю книги «Бунтующий человек» и разгромной её критикой в журнале Сартра Les Temps Modernes, — один из самых недооценённых интеллектуальных конфликтов 20-го века. Как вы могли предположить, я всегда был ближе к Камю. Стоит начать изучение этой дискуссии с перевода язвительных эссе Камю и различных подхалимов, нанятых Сартром. Также крайне рекомендую книгу Рональда Аронсона Camus and Sartre: The Story of a Friendship and the Quarrel that Ended It, The Burden of Responsibility Тони Юдта и, если вы владеете французским, L’ordre libertaire: La Vie philosophique d’Albert Camus Мишеля Онфре.

Источник

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  • 06.07.26 16:20 Olga Ognjanović

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  • 06.07.26 16:31 Joseph Weigl

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  • 07.07.26 18:00 robertalfred175

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  • 07.07.26 18:01 robertalfred175

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  • 09.07.26 19:06 Toivo Walli

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  • 09.07.26 19:10 Misty Alexander

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  • 13.07.26 23:49 [email protected]

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  • 15.07.26 11:53 Sarah Green

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  • 16.07.26 21:38 patricialovick86

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  • 16.07.26 21:38 patricialovick86

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  • 18.07.26 23:51 bernalzenaida

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  • 19.07.26 04:10 Fraddy Pual

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  • 19.07.26 19:53 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 19.07.26 19:53 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 19.07.26 19:54 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 30.07.26 00:04 Ahmed

    A really cool analysis, thank you. I was especially struck by how strictly the order is defined: data processing and formatting come first, with color only at the very end. This really saves you from the typical mistake of "first a pretty palette, then we figure out what the chart is for." And the palette validator with OKLCH + colorblindness check is absolutely fantastic; you almost never see that in regular tools. By the way, while reading about rank-trajectory and the logarithmic scale, I immediately remembered how convenient it is to analyze dynamics on charts in ExpertOption—I've been trading there for quite some time now. When the data is well visualized, decisions are noticeably easier and more relaxed. I also liked the point about "no more than eight colors" and the dual-axis ban. Strict restrictions sometimes actually produce better results than complete freedom. I'll try this approach myself.

  • 30.07.26 17:27 wendytaylor015

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  • 30.07.26 17:27 wendytaylor015

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  • 31.07.26 16:21 rssllhrnsb

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  • 04.08.26 11:05 Kisnoles

    Excellent analysis, thank you. I was particularly struck by how rigidly the skill sets the order: data processing and form come first, with color coming last. This really cures the habit of "first a pretty palette, then we'll figure it out." A palette validator using OKLCH + color blindness + WCAG is something most chart generators lack. And regarding the boundaries of competence, it's very clear. Where there's a self-checking loop (color), you delegate freely. Where there's a heuristic (form, data interpretation), you remain the final filter. This is a universal principle, not just for /dataviz. By the way, when you look at trading dashboards (including those of decent platforms like ExpertOption), it's immediately clear who thought about readability and who just threw in rainbow lines. Tools like this skill could greatly improve the quality of analytics. Thanks again for the detailed analysis – saved.

  • 04.08.26 12:37 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 16.08.26 01:44 Matt Kegan

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  • 18.08.26 04:59 marcushenderson624

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  • 19.08.26 14:50 BAYER7043

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  • 20.08.26 11:32 michaeldavenport218

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  • 23.08.26 20:02 leslieyee

    Excellent analysis by /dataviz! I was particularly struck by how strictly the order is defined: "data meaning first, color last" and how the validator actually adjusts the palette according to OKLCH, color blindness, and WCAG standards. These rules greatly improve the quality of charts. By the way, a similar approach to clean and legible charts is highly valued in trading—for example, on the ExpertOption platform, the interface and price visualization are designed to ensure information is read instantly and without unnecessary noise.

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  • 30.08.26 15:37 [email protected]

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  • 02.09.26 03:43 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 05.09.26 21:38 [email protected]

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    My Experience With Cryptocurrency — CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER I lost over $82,000 in Bitcoin after falling victim to a fraudulent online investment scheme. After realizing I had been scammed, I spent considerable time researching possible ways to recover my funds. During my research, I came across CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER and decided to contact them after reading their reported success record and encouraging client positive reviews and testimonials. Their team guided me through the recovery process, and I was grateful to successfully recover my lost cryptocurrency. The experience was challenging, but I appreciated the assistance and support I received throughout the process. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it may encourage other victims to carefully research their options and verify any recovery service before proceeding. I will forever be thankful to you CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER 📧 [email protected] 🌐 Website: recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1 📧 [email protected] 📞 Call/WhatsApp: +1 (336) 390-6684

  • 09.09.26 23:22 Fraddy Pual

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  • 11.09.26 03:23 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 11.09.26 03:23 kimberlyhebertt6877

    I invested in bitcoin trading After losing $78.4 USDT) linked to a romance fraud scam worth of cryptocurrency through an online investment platform and later discovered it was a scam. After extensive research for recovery options, I contacted CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER based on positive client reviews and recommendations. Their professional security team guided me through the recovery process using advanced technology, and I was able to recover my lost cryptocurrency successfully. I am truly grateful for their support and assistance during such a difficult experience. I will advise you to contact CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER helped me recover my funds. For anyone facing similar issues, Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1 Email: [email protected] Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] WhatsApp/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684

  • 15.09.26 03:35 elioduncan

    I fell victim to a freelance web development contract scam that ultimately cost me CAD 4,000. It all started when I came across a job posting on Indeed Canada, a popular online job portal. The position seemed perfect: a freelance web developer role for an established company looking for someone to design and build a fully functional e-commerce website. The job promised a high payment of CAD 20,000 upon successful completion, which sounded like a great opportunity for me to gain experience and earn decent pay.The employer, who introduced himself as a project manager from a "well-known" tech company, was very persuasive and professional in our initial communication. He explained that the project involved developing a user-friendly, responsive online store for their client and that they had a strict timeline to meet. He assured me that the payment would be made promptly after completing the tasks. However, before starting the work, he told me that I would need to pay an upfront fee of CAD 4,000 to cover certain software tools and licensing fees required for the project. This was supposedly a part of their company policy for freelance contractors, ensuring access to their premium resources. The idea of working on a professional project, coupled with the promise of a substantial payout, convinced me to pay the upfront fee.As soon as I made the payment, the project manager became increasingly difficult to reach. He initially responded to my emails and provided some vague instructions on what the project would entail, but as time went on, communication slowed to a complete halt. I never received the required tools or any proper project details. My emails went unanswered, and any attempts to contact the company were met with silence. After waiting for weeks, I realized that I had been scammed.Desperate to recover my money, I turned to TechY Force Cyber Retrieval, a service that specializes in helping victims of online scams. They helped me track the payment and took legal steps to pursue the fraudsters. Through their guidance, I was able to recover the full CAD 4,000. TechY Force Cyber Retrieval worked with my bank to reverse the transaction and liaised with the authorities to trace the scammer's details.This was a hard lesson, and I now know to be highly cautious about online job offers that require upfront payments. It is crucial to research companies thoroughly and avoid any job that seems too good to be true, especially when it involves paying money upfront. WhatsApp https://wa.link/2x6ktp Mail. [email protected]

  • 15.09.26 15:45 lydiassmith567

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  • 15.09.26 15:45 lydiassmith567

    HIRE A HACKER YOUR STOLEN CRYPTO RECOVERY / BTC / USDT / ETH WITH THE HELP OF CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER. I want to share my experience publicly regarding cryptocurrency wallet recovery, I highly recommend you to contact CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER, a professional private investigator in the Bitcoin world. They have a certified expert security team specializing in Bitcoin Recovery Services and have helped many people worldwide recover their lost funds. My wife and I were defrauded by an online manipulator posing as an experienced crypto investment professional. We lost $9.2 Million Stolen BTC in cryptocurrency and were left feeling homeless. After spending hours searching for a reliable crypto recovery service, I discovered CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER online. By patiently explaining my situation to their team, I was able to recover all my funds. Remarkably, my money was returned to my wallet in less than 24 hours. I am extremely grateful to CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER for their excellent assistance—they truly were a godsend in my difficult situation. If you have fallen victim to a cryptocurrency scam, you can reach CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER through the following channels Email: [email protected] OR Call/WhatsApp: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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