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[Перевод] Скандал вокруг IPO компании SpaceX

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SpaceX сейчас готовится, как ожидается, к самому крупному публичному первичному размещению в истории, целевая оценка которого составит $1,75 трлн1. Для сравнения: это больше, чем Meta* или Tesla, и такое IPO легко превзойдёт рекорд биржевого дебюта Saudi Aramco. Ожидается, что это первичное размещение вызовет спрос со стороны розничных инвесторов, которые до этого вложиться в компанию не могли, поскольку её акции не торгуются на бирже.

В аэрокосмической сфере есть важное различие между астрономией и астрологией. Астрономия — это раздел науки, использующий математику для расчёта орбитальной механики, чтобы многомиллиардная ракета не превратилась в очень дорогой фейерверк. Напротив, астрология — это вера в то, что если Юпитер решил пошалить, то на следующей неделе лучше сидеть дома и на работу не ходить. Как правило, у конструкторов ракет и авторов гороскопов общего мало.

Илон Маск, очевидно, ценит науку астрономию. Ещё бы: он десятилетиями вещал о важности строительства ракет и полётов на Марс. Нам также известно, что он любит чуточку нумерологии — ни у кого больше числа 420 и 69 не вызывают столько веселья, сколько у Маска. С объявлением IPO мы узнали, что он любит ещё и немного астрологии. Сообщается, что SpaceX нацелилась на IPO в июне, потому что Юпитер, Венера и Меркурий выстроятся в параде планет и, насколько я понял, это благоприятный знак2.

Кроме того, июнь — это месяц 55-летия Маска. А ещё ходят слухи, будто целевая дата — 9 июня. Да, именно так: 9 июня, то есть 6/9 в американской манере записи дат. Будь Маск помоложе, он выбрал бы 6/7, 7 июня, но нет. Илону Маску 55, так что будет 6/93.

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Пусть парад планет отлично подходит для заголовков, выбор времени, скорее всего, продиктован куда более приземлённой проблемой: капитал ограничен, нужно успеть его забрать.

По состоянию на начало 2026 года частные рынки начинают выглядеть исчерпанными. Венчурные фонды, которые последние несколько лет агрессивно финансировали бум ИИ, теперь сталкиваются с плато ликвидности и давлением: пора наконец вернуть немного денег собственным инвесторам. В то же время Маск участвует в гонке с высокими ставками: ему нужно выйти на публичные рынки раньше, чем его соперники OpenAI и Anthropic успеют перетянуть на себя весь доступный инвесторский спрос.

Банкиры мягко предупреждают, что на публичных рынках может не хватить свободных денег, чтобы одновременно поддержать три огромных капиталоёмких размещения ИИ-компаний, и тот, кто выйдет на биржу первым, получит самый большой кусок пирога. В то время, как xAI сжигает $1 млрд в месяц, а масштабные проекты дата-центров требуют новых миллиардов на инфраструктуру, Маск, возможно, смотрит не только на звёзды — он присматривается и к путям выхода в ликвидность. Расположение планет — приятный элемент брендинга, но на самом деле выбор даты может быть обоснован страхом оказаться вторым в очереди к банкомату.

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Эта спешка на публичные рынки означает серьёзную перемену взглядов Маска. Более десятилетия он настаивал, что SpaceX не выйдет на биржу, пока не будет полностью готова его транспортная система для Марса. Он утверждал, что краткосрочная рыночная давка вокруг свободно торгуемой компании (инвесторы помешаны на квартальных результатах, постоянно норовят ставить палки в колёса шортселлеры и так далее) отвлекала бы от долгосрочной цели — сделать жизнь многопланетной.

Но листинг в июне 2026 года всё ближе, а транспортная система для Марса застряла в стадии активной разработки, и Маск в последнее время начал стыдливо убирать под сукно свои марсианские амбиции, словно неловкое юношеское увлечение.

Новая миссия — и ядро презентации IPO — сосредоточена на Луне, направлении, которое Маск когда-то отвергал как пустую трату времени. Теперь он описывает Луну как промежуточный этап и главный приоритет для обеспечения будущего цивилизации.

Оказывается, перенацелиться на новое направление легче, если ты это годами предсказывал, пусть и не осознавая этого. Илон Маск носит свои знаменитые футболки Occupy Mars с 2019 года, и многие указывали, что на них на самом деле изображена Луна с красным оттенком во время затмения. Возможно, решения закрыть марсианскую программу не было — Маск просто повнимательнее посмотрел себе на грудь и понял, что всё это время случайно рекламировал Луну.

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Переход от высоко взлетевшей ракетно-спутниковой фирмы к тому, что теперь хочется назвать конгломератом XXX (SpaceX, xAI и X), фанаты описывают как проявление гениальности, критики — как крупное спасение тонущего актива. Дело в том, что когда в IPO компании Spacex вносились последние штрихи, Маск решил встроить xAI в SpaceX с ценником $250 млрд.

Слияние ракетной компании с ИИ-стартапом само по себе выглядит странновато, но xAI несёт с собой из соцсетей особо тяжёлое наследие. В прошлом году компания сферы искусственного интеллекта xAI использовала свои акции, чтобы купить X, приложение для всего на свете Илона Маска, известное раньше (да и до сих пор) как Twitter. Это значит, что инвесторы SpaceX теперь стали гордыми владельцами 17-го по рейтингу сайта социальных медиа — предприятия, которое с тех пор, как Маск купил его за $44 млрд в 2022 году, борется с устойчивым оттоком как пользователей, так и рекламодателей.

Чтобы оправдать ценник в $250 млрд, придётся поверить, что xAI — игрок первого эшелона в области искусственного интеллекта. Сейчас ChatGPT и Google Gemini доминируют в этой сфере, вдвоём удерживая более 85 % рынка. Grok, для сравнения, находится далеко позади с долей 3,4 %.

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Одна из проблем заключается в том, что Grok находится в изоляции. Хотя xAI недавно запустила самостоятельное приложение Grok, подавляющее большинство его использования по-прежнему заперто внутри Twitter. Основное применение Grok — это просто фактчекинг твитов или генерация тех самых безбашенных мемов, из-за которых компании уже прилетело по шапке в Испании, Франции и Великобритании.

Хотя SpaceX, как утверждается, прибыльна и в прошлом году показала около $8 млрд EBITDA, xAI — это денежная топка, сжигающая по $1 млрд наличности каждый месяц.

Вполне вероятно, что ИИ окажется рынком по типу интернет-поиска: появится один околомонопольный игрок, который заберёт почти всё. Если сценарий развития сферы таков, то судьба мелкого игрока уровня xAI незавидна и даже опасна. Эта опасность усиливается растущей утечкой талантов. С начала года из xAI ушло значительное число ключевых сотрудников, включая шестерых сооснователей компании, которых Илон изначально переманил из Google и DeepMind. Тяжело оправдать завышенную оценку за передовой ИИ, если создатели модели из компании уже вышли.

Маск объясняет слияние в пресс-релизе, который похож на сценарий малобюджетной научно-фантастической эпопеи: нам нужно строить орбитальные дата-центры, чтобы нести свет сознания к звёздам. Он утверждает, что ИИ в космосе — единственный способ масштабирования, потому что слово space не зря означает и «космос», и «пространство». Этот ход напоминает слияние с SolarCity в 2016 году, когда Маск использовал финансы Tesla, чтобы спасти испытывавшую трудности солнечную компанию, которой, уж так вышло, владел тоже он.

Как отметил Мэтт Левин из Bloomberg, главная инновация здесь — не только ракеты, речь ещё и об умении привлекать деньги, позволяющем Маску вести переговоры с самим собой и назначать собственные оценки без досадной помехи в виде независимого надзора совета директоров.

Илон Маск также затвитил, что xAI изначально была построена неправильно, поэтому её перестраивают с нуля. Из-за этого у инвесторов SpaceX может возникнуть вопрос: если это правда, то зачем они только что заплатили за компанию $250 млрд?

Для банков и венчурных фирм, застрявших в убыточной сделке с Twitter, слияние — фантастическая новость. Оно фактически меняет их проблемные доли в соцсети на свеженькие акции SpaceX прямо перед масштабным IPO. И пусть инвесторы SpaceX задаются вопросом, почему они вдруг субсидируют чат-бота с аниме-вайфу, большинство вряд ли будет жаловаться.

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Лояльность — главная валюта в мире инвестиций бок о бок с Илоном Маском. Если слишком громко жаловаться на корпоративное управление, на следующий парад планет пригласить забудут.

Чтобы оправдать слияние ракетной компании с прожигающим деньги чат-ботом, нарратив IPO опирается на очень конкретное видение будущего, построенное вокруг важности переноса мировой вычислительной мощности ИИ за пределы Земли.

Аргумент Маска состоит в том, что земные дата-центры упираются в ограничения из-за нехватки земли, электроэнергии и охлаждения. Его решение — запустить созвездие из миллиона спутников, которые будут работать как орбитальные дата-центры, напрямую используя почти непрерывную солнечную энергию в вакууме космоса.

На первый взгляд в этом питче можно найти логику: в космосе много солнца и нет жалующихся на шум соседей. Но на практике инженерные препятствия огромны. Возьмём, например, охлаждение. На Земле мы не даём серверам перегреваться, пропуская потоки холодного воздуха или воды; этот процесс называется конвекцией. В вакууме космоса нет воздуха, способного отводить тепло. Единственный вариант — использовать тяжёлые радиаторы, которые отдают тепло в виде инфракрасного излучения.

Мы уже видели испытание этой концепции. Несколько месяцев назад один стартап запустил ИИ-спутник размером примерно с небольшой холодильник, на борту был чип Nvidia H100. Хотя чип смог успешно обучить крошечную модель искусственного интеллекта на произведениях Шекспира, он не мог работать круглосуточно, потому что систему приходилось часто отключать при слишком высокой температуре.

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Следующая версия спутника должна отправиться в космос позднее в этом году. По словам стартапа, спутник будет нести второй по величине массив радиаторов охлаждения в космосе; больше только система охлаждения на Международной космической станции. То есть, чтобы запустить на орбиту всего несколько чипов искусственного интеллекта, вам нужно оборудование, сопоставимое с самой дорогой структурой, когда-либо построенной человечеством. Затем, как вещает пресс-релиз SpaceX, придётся масштабироваться до миллиона спутников.

Для достижения гигаваттных мощностей, о которых говорит Маск, потребовались бы солнечные панели и радиаторы длиной около 4 километров. Доставить на орбиту объект размером в 40 футбольных полей и обслуживать его — кошмар с точки зрения логистики. Это хрупкий парус огромных размеров, уязвимый перед каждым обломком космического мусора на низкой околоземной орбите.

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Также есть проблема у Starship. «Разумное Солнце», бизнес-модель орбитальных дата-центров, зависит от того, сможет ли компания выйти на безумно высокую частоту полётов. Речь про запуски каждый час с 200 тоннами полезной нагрузки за полёт — так написано в пресс-релизе самой SpaceX. Сейчас Starship всё ещё находится в той стадии разработки, где ракета часто взрывается. Хотя инженеры совершили невероятный подвиг, поймав 70-метровый ускоритель гигантскими робототизированными манипуляторами, ракете ещё предстоит выполнить полноценную орбитальную миссию или как-то иначе доказать, что она способна надёжно выводить полезную нагрузку без того, что в сленге SpaceX называют «быстрым незапланированным демонтажем» (rapid unscheduled disassembly).

Свою продающую презентацию с элементами научной фантастики Маск завершает предложением строить фабрики на Луне. Я это не выдумал. Согласно пресс-релизу, план состоит в том, чтобы производить спутники, используя лунные ресурсы, а затем выстреливать их в дальний космос при помощи электромагнитной катапульты — по сути, гигантского космического рельсотрона, технологии, на которую ВМС США за 16 лет потратили более $500 млн, так и не добившись успеха. По-видимому, прототипы рельсотрона страдали от экстремального нагрева и физических нагрузок — именно тех проблем, которые в космосе становятся серьёзнее.

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Не понимаю, почему фабрика на Луне будет эффективнее фабрики даже в самом удалённом месте на Земле, и какие именно лунные ресурсы Маск собирается использовать. Полагаю, какую-то цепочку поставок там всё равно развернуть придётся.

Идея смелая, и она означает кардинальный разворот мнения человека, который десятилетиями жаловался, как лунные миссии отвлекают от полёта на Марс. Если помните, в 2017 он заявлял, что в 2022 году отправит как минимум две грузовые миссии на Марс для поиска источников воды и создания инфраструктуры энергоснабжения, добычи ресурсов и жизнеобеспечения, чтобы первые пилотируемые миссии могли случиться уже в 2024. В 2018 году он подтвердил эту цель, затем свои слова повторил в 2020, и лишь позже сроки были сдвинуты.

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Дата-центр в пустыне или специализированный склад всегда будет дешевле и проще строить на Земле, чем пытаться собрать в космосе или производить и запускать с Луны. Эндрю Маккалип, инженер из космического стартапа, создал веб-калькулятор, который позволяет сравнить стоимость орбитального дата-центра со стоимостью эквивалентного наземного.

Этот инструмент оценивает, что строительство одногигаваттного дата-центра и его эксплуатация в течение пяти лет на Земле обойдутся примерно в $16 млрд без учёта чипов. При этом орбитальный эквивалент будет стоить свыше $50 млрд, то есть более чем втрое дороже.

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Вот только если просто строить дата-центры в Техасе, то IPO на $1,75 трлн не получится. Для такой оценки нужны «разумное Солнце» и лунная катапульта.

Идея, будто самый трудный способ сделать что-то является самым эффективным — частый лейтмотив для Маска. В конце концов, именно он когда-то утверждал, что рыть многокилометровые тоннели под землёй будет якобы на порядки дешевле и быстрее, чем строить дороги на поверхности. По-видимому, если убедить инвесторов, что законы физики и базовая бухгалтерия — всего лишь необязательные рекомендации, на результат можно повесить почти любой ценник.

Если на секунду отвлечься от «разумного Солнца» и лунных катапульт, остаётся задачка не из лёгких — оправдать ценник SpaceX в $1,75 трлн. Сразу уточню: это не значит, что Илон Маск не сможет получить такую оценку. Это значит, что объяснить её будет тяжело.

Если верить новостям, готовится не обычное IPO, а тщательно управляемый механизм выхода в ликвидность для компании, которая выросла и потеряла способность привлекать финансирование на частных рынках. Более 20 лет SpaceX существовала в пузыре частного капитала, где оценки устанавливаются небольшими, изолированными раундами, а не холодной реальностью ежедневной публичной торговли. Но, как отмечает в Financial Times бывший глава направления рынков акционерного капитала Bank of America Крейг Кобен, законы финансовой гравитации изгибать куда труднее, чем пространство-время.

Основной показатель для любой быстрорастущей технологической компании — это мультипликатор EV/Sales, то есть отношение стоимости предприятия к выручке4. Он особенно предпочтителен в отношении быстрорастущих компаний, которые либо ещё не прибыльны, либо приносят нестабильную прибыль. Причина в том, что показатели продаж часто более устойчивы и менее подвержены бухгалтерским искажениям, чем чистая прибыль или EBITDA. Этот коэффициент показывает, сколько вы платите за каждый доллар выручки, который приносит компания.

Facebook, как указывает Кобен, вышел на биржу при мультипликаторе 11 к прогнозной выручке. В те годы подобное считалось чрезвычайно высокой оценкой; как результат, границы допустимого для публичных рынков были раздвинуты. Для дополнительного контекста: большинство быстрорастущих технологических компаний тогда торговались по гораздо более низким мультипликаторам. Google, например, торговалась примерно на уровне 5–6 к выручке.

SpaceX хочет выйти на биржу с мультипликатором примерно 94 к выручке 2025 года. Даже если использовать самые оптимистичные прогнозы на 2026 год, коэффициент всё равно остаётся выше 60 к выручке. Если сравнивать: это существенно выше, чем у Palantir, у которой сейчас самый высокий мультипликатор в S&P 500.

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Однако не все считают такую цену безумной. Аналитики PitchBook недавно доказывали, что оценка в $1,75 трлн является высокой, но оправданной, если предположить, что к 2040 году Starlink достигнет 1,2 миллиарда пользователей.

Глубокий изъян в таких вычислениях связан с понятием общего адресуемого рынка. Если опираться на исследования Ханса Рослинга в книге «Фактологичность»5, на планете всего около одного миллиарда людей зарабатывают больше $32 в день. Большая часть этих людей живут в США и Западной Европе, а большинство людей в этих регионах уже имеют доступ к проводному широкополосному интернету, который одновременно быстрее и дешевле Starlink. Общий адресуемый рынок в 1,2 миллиарда пользователей, способных тратить более $100 в месяц исключительно на интернет-связь, почти невозможен.

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Starlink — блестящий инструмент для людей в удалённых районах, золотодобытчиков в Судане или украинских военных. Но он плохо подходит для городов: тарелке нужна прямая видимость неба, а спутники сталкиваются с перегрузкой сети, когда слишком много людей одновременно подключаются к одному и тому же спутнику.

На деле в мире есть всего около 32 миллионов домохозяйств, которые могут позволить себе этот сервис и при этом ещё не имеют доступа к проводному интернету. У большей части этой группы уже есть доступ к интернету через мобильные сети, и лишь менее половины из них не удовлетворяются скоростью и стабильностью мобильной связи до такой степени, чтобы раскошелиться на Starlink. Ожидать, что Starlink вырастет с нынешних 10 миллионов подписчиков до 1,2 миллиарда, — всё равно что ожидать, что каждый человек на планете начнёт пить бутилированную Fiji, хотя у него уже есть доступ к чистой питьевой воде.

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Мы уже видим пределы этого роста в финансовых данных. Элизабет Лопатто из Verge недавно отметила, что отчёт Morgan Stanley за 2024 год прогнозировал: выручка Starlink в следующем году достигнет $19 млрд благодаря 6 миллионам абонентов. В реальности SpaceX удалось достичь 9,2 миллиона абонентов, то есть превысить ожидания на более 50 %. Однако выручка составила всего $16 млрд. Это свидетельствует, что по мере роста клиентской базы Starlink падает маржинальность.

Теперь поговорим о сомнительной прибыльности компании. SpaceX недавно заявила о $8 млрд EBITDA. Но, как отмечали многие аналитики, EBITDA (прибыль до вычета процентов, налогов, износа и амортизации) — это очень щедрая призма, через которую можно смотреть на компанию калибра SpaceX, у которой огромные расходы на исследования и разработки и очень высокая амортизация.

EBITDA обычно помогает инвесторам сравнивать похожие организации, которые со временем принимали разные инвестиционные и бухгалтерские решения. По сути, такие компании занимаются одним и тем же, а вы просто убираете различия в выборе долговой нагрузки, налоговых юрисдикциях и бухгалтерских решениях по срокам, на которые они решили растянуть свои затраты. Такой подход часто оправдан. Это отличный способ выполнить чистое сравнение способности генерировать денежный поток и операционную деятельность двух очень похожих компаний, производящих некие условные товары. Но в случае капиталоёмких бизнесов с огромным прожиганием денег на ранних стадиях исследований и разработок EBITDA становится сомнительным показателем.

Срок полезной службы спутников Starlink составляет около 5 лет. Это означает, что при капитализации затрат на строительство спутников и при первоначальном (когда они улетают в космос) учёте их на балансе как инвестиции позднее возникнут амортизационные расходы: стоимость постройки этих спутников распределяется на их пятилетний срок полезной службы. Исключение таких значительных расходов, которые являются ядром текущих операций бизнеса и его способности генерировать будущий денежный поток, особенно искажает картину для бизнеса по типу SpaceX. Компания просто не может продолжать заявленную деятельность, не продолжая заменять эти спутники. Исключать стоимость спутников и стоимость их вывода на низкую околоземную орбиту, чтобы заявлять о прибыльности, — это несколько абсурдно.

Если затем учесть миллиарды наличности, потраченные на строительство Starship в рамках исследований и разработок, то прибыль, на которую намекает Маск, начинает выглядеть крайне трудноуловимой. Очень крупные расходы на исследования и разработки ради полёта на Марс или на Луну получится отбить только за счёт будущих массовых развёртываний или высокой коммерческой загрузки создаваемых ракетных систем. На практике рынок запусков по доставке грузов в космос демонстрирует очень слабый рост, если вынести за скобки запуски собственных спутников Starlink компанией SpaceX. Подобное подводит к вопросу, есть ли у этого направления вообще потенциал роста.

Если отойти от EBITDA и начать анализировать фактическую прибыльность, картинка становится менее приглядной. Это такой «Портрет Дориана Грея» от мира финансовой отчётности: презентация на IPO выглядит молодой и безупречной, но баланс на чердаке становится всё более уродливым6.

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Хотя SpaceX — бизнес с выручкой $16 млрд, утекшие документы показывают, что xAI за первые девять месяцев 2025 года получила всего $120 млн выручки. Чтобы представить масштаб: xAI сейчас сжигает $1 млрд в месяц на строительство своих дата-центров. Это означает, что xAI тратит всю свою годовую выручку каждые шесть дней.

Объединяя две организации, Маск использует уникальные преимущества ракетного предприятия, чтобы субсидировать астрономические затраты ИИ-бизнеса, и при этом просит публику сильно переплатить за привилегию владеть акциями.

SpaceX может быть выдающимся инженерным успехом, но как публичная инвестиция она будет зависеть от цены, которую вы платите за ожидаемый рост. Если оценка основана на допущении будто из комиксов про супергероев (как-то получим миллиард пользователей, у которых на деле либо есть связь получше, либо нет денег), то инвесторы рискуют отправиться не к звёздам, а далеко вниз.

Всё это подводит нас к вопросу о том, как Илон Маск на самом деле рассчитывает получить ценник в $1,75 трлн. Ответ находится не в финансовой физике ракет, а в физике фондового рынка.

Главное что нужно понять об этом IPO: SpaceX не продаёт всю компанию. Скорее всего, она выпустит в обращение лишь крошечный free-float7. Финансовая пресса предполагает, что будет выпущено всего от 5 до 10 процентов общего числа акций. Если искусственно удерживать предложение акций на низком уровне и одновременно продвигать их каждому розничному инвестору на планете, это создаст дефицит предложения ещё до первого удара биржевого колокола. Когда все хотят кусочек будущего, а акций мало, у цены есть только один путь — вверх.

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Крейг Кобен писал об этой стратегии низкого free float несколько лет назад в Financial Times, где отмечал, что многие недавние технологические IPO выводили в свободное обращение лишь крошечное число акций, часто от 7 до 10 процентов, ниже исторического среднего в 20 %. Он приводил пример Instacart, где в свободное обращение было выпущено всего 8 % акций, и из них 60 % достались якорным инвесторам, а 5 % — близким к компании лицам по программе friends and family8. Поэтому для торгов остался крошечный объём акций, предположительно, чтобы культивировать ощущение дефицита.

А самое настоящее волшебство рискует случиться благодаря ловушке включения в индексы. Это не просто удачное стечение обстоятельств для Илона Маска — сообщается, что всё продиктовано конкретным требованием с его стороны. По данным Reuters, SpaceX сделала раннее включение в индекс Nasdaq 100 необходимым условием согласия на листинг на этой бирже. В ответ биржа обсуждает новое правило, которое позволит SpaceX попасть в Nasdaq 100 всего после 15 торговых дней, без обязательного для любой другой компании года формирования рыночной цены.

И дело не только в Nasdaq. Bloomberg сообщает, что S&P Dow Jones Indices также рассматривает исторические изменения правил, чтобы включить SpaceX в S&P 500 в ускоренном темпе. Важность подобного нельзя недооценить: к этому индексу привязано примерно $24 трлн. Наверное, Илону стоит ещё позвонить в Russell и узнать, нельзя ли классифицировать SpaceX как акции стоимости, value stock9.

Если SpaceX добавят в S&P 500 и Nasdaq 100, каждый пассивный инвестор обнаружит, что покупает акции по той цене, которую сгенерировал дефицит предложения. Как указывает опытный управляющий фондами Джордж Ноубл, предлагаемый пятикратный множитель к free float, используемый для определения веса в индексе Nasdaq, — это наглая структурная манипуляция. Она фактически превращает каждый пенсионный фонд в выходную ликвидность для инсайдеров SpaceX: ваш пенсионный счёт принудительно заставляют покупать пузырь, сконструированный продавцом. Как утверждает Ноубл, правила переписывают в пользу эмитентов IPO и ранних инсайдеров, а ваш капитал становится инструментом, которым их обогащают.

Мы это уже проходили. В декабре 2020 года Tesla была включена в S&P 500 после огромного разгона цены. С даты включения Tesla отстала от широкого индекса более чем на 20 %. Пассивные инвесторы, которых заставили купить акции по огромной оценке прямо перед тем, как продажи начали иссякать, остались крайними, пока ранние инсайдеры снимали сливки.

SpaceX может быть выдающейся инженерной компанией, но публике её продают как финансовое чудо по цене, которую мне очень трудно объяснить. Это не значит, что IPO провалится или цена акций упадёт, но очень многое должно сложиться правильно для SpaceX, чтобы компания оказалась хорошей долгосрочной инвестицией.



Примечания переводчика

  1. В этом фрагменте видеоролика показывается скриншот статьи из раздела Business издания CNN. Любопытно, что фотография Илона Маска на скриншоте без предупреждения заменена на известный снимок папарацци от июля 2022 года, где миллиардер выглядит неприглядно.

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    Конечно, это лишь шпилька от Патрика Бойля в адрес нелюбимого им Маска — в оригинальной статье Илон носит деловой костюм.

  2. В первой половине июня состоится соединение Венеры и Юпитера. In-The-Sky приводит момент соединения 9 июня в 12:35 UTC (15:35 по Москве) с угловым расстоянием 1°38′. Ближайшее сближение тех же двух планет приходится на 19:48 UTC (22:48 МСК), когда они будут разделены примерно на 1°36′. Пик тройки Меркурий — Венера — Юпитер относят к району 12 июня, а 15 июня Меркурий достигает наибольшей восточной элонгации, то есть в середине июня его ловить легче всего.

    Поскольку на широте Москвы в эти даты полноценной астрономической ночи нет, Венеру и Юпитер будет найти сравнительно просто, а вот с Меркурием придётся постараться. На юге России условия будут лучше.

    Само по себе появление трёх ярких планет в одном вечернем секторе не настолько уникально, чтобы расценивать его как предзнаменование особой силы.

  3. 420 и 69 — два любимых числа американской интернет-культуры: 420 отсылает к марихуане, 69 — к одноимённой сексуальной позе. Патрик Бойль напоминает, что Илон Маск пристрастился вставлять эти числа в самые неподходящие контексты. В 2018 году миллиардер написал, что рассматривает вывод Tesla с биржи по цене $420 за акцию. В результате последовавших разбирательств Комиссии по ценным бумагам и биржам США как компания, так и её глава получили крупные штрафы.

    В других случаях отсылка хотя бы к месту. В 2020 году Tesla продавала сатиновые «шорты шортов» за $69,420 — одновременно шутка про 69, 420 и шортселлеров, ставивших против акций Tesla. В том же году Маск объявил снижение цены Model S до $69 420. В 2022 году Twitter согласился на выкуп Маском по цене $54,20 за акцию.

    6-7, six-seven или просто 67 — куда более свежий мем, чем 420 и 69, и употребляется в основном подростками, на основе чего и выстроена шутка. Этот шибболет изначально имел смысл, но постепенно потерял его из-за лингвистического процесса семантического выцветания.

    Six-seven — цитата из песни Doot Doot исполнителя Skrilla. В тексте произведения это отсылка к полицейскому коду 10-67, которым в родной для Skrilla Филадельфии сообщают о смерти или обнаружении тела человека. Также на популярность повлияло то, что это одна из самых хорошо различимых фраз во всём треке. После череды ремиксов, безуспешных попыток найти толкование и раздражения окружающих подростки начали цитировать фразу без какого-либо конкретного смысла, как код для своих, как сигнал принадлежности к группе. К марту 2026 года, когда был выпущен видеоролик, употребление мема среди детей уже вышло из моды.

  4. EV/Sales — это enterprise value-to-sales, отношение стоимости предприятия к годовой выручке. В числителе здесь не просто рыночная капитализация компании, как в показателе по типу Price/Sales, а enterprise value: обычно капитализация плюс долг, привилегированные акции и неконтролирующие доли в дочерних компаниях минус денежные средства и их эквиваленты. Такая метрика пытается оценить не только цену акций, но и условную стоимость покупки всего бизнеса с его долгами и денежной подушкой. За счёт этого EV/Sales удобен там, где чистая прибыль ещё отрицательная или скачет: выручка находится выше в отчёте о прибылях и убытках и обычно меньше зависит от налоговой структуры, долговой нагрузки, амортизационной политики и разовых списаний.

    Это не значит, что мультипликатор будет самодостаточным — он почти ничего не говорит о марже, капитальных расходах и способности превращать выручку в свободный денежный поток. Высокий EV/Sales часто означает не текущую эффективность, а веру рынка в будущий рост.

    EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) — прибыль до процентов, налогов, износа и амортизации. По сути, это попытка смотреть на прибыльность бизнеса до влияния того, как он профинансирован, где платит налоги и как бухгалтерски распределяет стоимость долгоживущих активов по периодам.

    Кстати, в разъяснениях американской Комиссии по ценным бумагам и биржам EBITDA считается показателем non-GAAP, то есть метрикой, не предусмотренной стандартной отчётностью по GAAP — общепринятым принципам бухгалтерского учёта, формализованным в США. Иными словами, это не строка официальной чистой прибыли, а дополнительный показатель, который должен сверяться с ней. Сам по себе показатель может быть полезен, но его нужно воспринимать осторожно. В вариантах по типу adjusted EBITDA компании могут дополнительно исключать из расчёта расходы, которые считают разовыми, неоперационными или искажающими картину бизнеса.

  5. По понятным причинам Патрик Бойль сокращает название бестселлера Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World — and Why Things Are Better Than You Think при его упоминании. В русском издании Corpus и АСТ книга называется «Фактологичность. Десять причин наших заблуждений о мире — и почему все не так плохо, как кажется». Также опущено то, что книгу писали три человека, а не один шведский врач Ханс Рослинг: участие принимали его сын Ула Рослинг и невестка Анна Рослинг Рённлунд.

  6. По сюжету романа Оскара Уайльда, Дориан Грей остаётся внешне молодым и прекрасным, а его портрет вместо него стареет и принимает на себя следы нравственного разложения. Когда изменения становятся слишком заметными, Дориан прячет картину в бывшей классной комнате на чердаке дома. Снаружи герой по-прежнему выглядит безупречно, но спрятанный портрет становится всё более уродливым свидетельством его настоящего состояния.

    В финале Грей пытается уничтожить портрет ножом, и после этого картина снова показывает его юным и красивым, а сам Дориан оказывается мёртвым, иссохшим, морщинистым и отвратительным на вид стариком. Действительно, на тот момент ему 38–39 лет.

  7. При выходе на IPO публичным инвесторам для покупки и продажи на фондовом рынке становится доступна лишь часть акций компании. Эта часть называется акциями в свободном обращении или free-float. Под этим понимают общее число акций за вычетом не находящимся в свободной торговле пакетов: акций основателей, инсайдеров, стратегических акционеров, государства, других компаний или бумаг с ограничениями на продажу.

  8. Перечисляются разные категории заранее распределённых акций.

    Якорные инвесторы — крупные институциональные покупатели, которых компания и андеррайтеры (организующие первичное размещение банки) показывают рынку как источник спроса ещё до начала торгов. К примеру, если взять тот же случай Instacart, это были Norges Bank Investment Management и фонды, связанные с TCV, Sequoia Capital, D1 Capital Partners и Valiant Capital Management, выразившие интерес купить акции на сумму до $400 млн по цене IPO и на тех же условиях, что и остальные покупатели. При размере размещения $660 млн это примерно 60,6 % всего IPO.

    Программа friends and family — это не про знакомых и родственников в бытовом смысле, а про directed share program (DSP). Компания просит андеррайтеров зарезервировать часть акций от IPO по цене размещения для некой группы людей. Обычно в DSP включают сотрудников, директоров, партнёров, клиентов, поставщиков, родственников или других людей с отношением к компании, отчего на рынке такие программы часто называют «друзья и семья» или, в некоторых русскоязычных источниках, «семья и друзья».

    И якорные инвесторы, и DSP уменьшают объём акций, который реально остаётся для обычных торгов в первый день, усиливая дефицит предложения.

  9. Фраза про звонок в Russell — шутка про ручное переписывание индексных правил.

    Value stock или акция стоимости — прямая противоположность growth stock, акции роста. Акциями стоимости называют такие, которые выглядят дешёвыми относительно фундаментальных показателей бизнеса: прибыли, выручки, балансовой стоимости капитала, дивидендов и так далее. Обычно это более зрелые компании с умеренными ожиданиями роста, а не ситуации, где инвестор переплачивает за обещание будущей безумной экспансии.

    В семействе индексов FTSE Russell (к примеру, Russell 1000 Value и Russell 1000 Growth) акции распределяются между value и growth не по желанию эмитента, а по формальным факторам: book-to-price, прогнозному росту I/B/E/S на два года и историческому росту продаж на акцию за пять лет.


Деятельность экстремистской организации Meta (*) запрещена.

Источник

  • 22.06.26 21:51 kimberlyhebert786

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  • 30.06.26 15:08 wendytaylor015

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  • 02.07.26 01:22 Lieneke Bonnema

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  • 05.07.26 14:44 lydiassmith567

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  • 05.07.26 14:44 lydiassmith567

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  • 06.07.26 16:20 Olga Ognjanović

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  • 06.07.26 16:31 Joseph Weigl

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  • 06.07.26 16:33 Jaran Løvlien

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  • 07.07.26 18:00 robertalfred175

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  • 07.07.26 18:01 robertalfred175

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  • 09.07.26 19:06 Toivo Walli

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  • 09.07.26 19:10 Misty Alexander

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  • 13.07.26 23:49 [email protected]

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  • 15.07.26 11:53 Sarah Green

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  • 16.07.26 21:38 patricialovick86

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  • 16.07.26 21:38 patricialovick86

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  • 18.07.26 17:12 Malthe Larsen

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  • 18.07.26 17:46 Adem Akışık

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  • 18.07.26 23:51 bernalzenaida

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  • 19.07.26 04:10 Fraddy Pual

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  • 19.07.26 19:53 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 19.07.26 19:53 kimberlyhebertt6877

    I invested in bitcoin trading After losing $78.4 USDT) linked to a romance fraud scam worth of cryptocurrency through an online investment platform and later discovered it was a scam. After extensive research for recovery options, I contacted CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER based on positive client reviews and recommendations. Their professional security team guided me through the recovery process using advanced technology, and I was able to recover my lost cryptocurrency successfully. I am truly grateful for their support and assistance during such a difficult experience. I will advise you to contact CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER helped me recover my funds. For anyone facing similar issues, Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1 Email: [email protected] Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] Call/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684

  • 19.07.26 19:54 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 30.07.26 00:04 Ahmed

    A really cool analysis, thank you. I was especially struck by how strictly the order is defined: data processing and formatting come first, with color only at the very end. This really saves you from the typical mistake of "first a pretty palette, then we figure out what the chart is for." And the palette validator with OKLCH + colorblindness check is absolutely fantastic; you almost never see that in regular tools. By the way, while reading about rank-trajectory and the logarithmic scale, I immediately remembered how convenient it is to analyze dynamics on charts in ExpertOption—I've been trading there for quite some time now. When the data is well visualized, decisions are noticeably easier and more relaxed. I also liked the point about "no more than eight colors" and the dual-axis ban. Strict restrictions sometimes actually produce better results than complete freedom. I'll try this approach myself.

  • 30.07.26 17:27 wendytaylor015

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  • 30.07.26 17:27 wendytaylor015

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  • 31.07.26 16:21 rssllhrnsb

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TEXT : (tatianasorina06 at G.Ma IL ..c 0 m ) Before committing money to any investment, take time to verify the legitimacy of the platform, confirm any relevant regulatory authorisations, and avoid investing more than you can comfortably afford to lose.

  • 01.08.26 15:05 keithwilson9899

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  • 04.08.26 11:05 Kisnoles

    Excellent analysis, thank you. I was particularly struck by how rigidly the skill sets the order: data processing and form come first, with color coming last. This really cures the habit of "first a pretty palette, then we'll figure it out." A palette validator using OKLCH + color blindness + WCAG is something most chart generators lack. And regarding the boundaries of competence, it's very clear. Where there's a self-checking loop (color), you delegate freely. Where there's a heuristic (form, data interpretation), you remain the final filter. This is a universal principle, not just for /dataviz. By the way, when you look at trading dashboards (including those of decent platforms like ExpertOption), it's immediately clear who thought about readability and who just threw in rainbow lines. Tools like this skill could greatly improve the quality of analytics. Thanks again for the detailed analysis – saved.

  • 04.08.26 12:37 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 16.08.26 01:44 Matt Kegan

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  • 19.08.26 14:50 BAYER7043

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  • 23.08.26 20:02 leslieyee

    Excellent analysis by /dataviz! I was particularly struck by how strictly the order is defined: "data meaning first, color last" and how the validator actually adjusts the palette according to OKLCH, color blindness, and WCAG standards. These rules greatly improve the quality of charts. By the way, a similar approach to clean and legible charts is highly valued in trading—for example, on the ExpertOption platform, the interface and price visualization are designed to ensure information is read instantly and without unnecessary noise.

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  • 30.08.26 15:37 [email protected]

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  • 01.09.26 17:34 Garry42

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  • 02.09.26 03:43 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 11.09.26 03:23 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 11.09.26 03:23 kimberlyhebertt6877

    I invested in bitcoin trading After losing $78.4 USDT) linked to a romance fraud scam worth of cryptocurrency through an online investment platform and later discovered it was a scam. After extensive research for recovery options, I contacted CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER based on positive client reviews and recommendations. Their professional security team guided me through the recovery process using advanced technology, and I was able to recover my lost cryptocurrency successfully. I am truly grateful for their support and assistance during such a difficult experience. I will advise you to contact CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER helped me recover my funds. For anyone facing similar issues, Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1 Email: [email protected] Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] WhatsApp/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684

  • 15.09.26 03:35 elioduncan

    I fell victim to a freelance web development contract scam that ultimately cost me CAD 4,000. It all started when I came across a job posting on Indeed Canada, a popular online job portal. The position seemed perfect: a freelance web developer role for an established company looking for someone to design and build a fully functional e-commerce website. The job promised a high payment of CAD 20,000 upon successful completion, which sounded like a great opportunity for me to gain experience and earn decent pay.The employer, who introduced himself as a project manager from a "well-known" tech company, was very persuasive and professional in our initial communication. He explained that the project involved developing a user-friendly, responsive online store for their client and that they had a strict timeline to meet. He assured me that the payment would be made promptly after completing the tasks. However, before starting the work, he told me that I would need to pay an upfront fee of CAD 4,000 to cover certain software tools and licensing fees required for the project. This was supposedly a part of their company policy for freelance contractors, ensuring access to their premium resources. The idea of working on a professional project, coupled with the promise of a substantial payout, convinced me to pay the upfront fee.As soon as I made the payment, the project manager became increasingly difficult to reach. He initially responded to my emails and provided some vague instructions on what the project would entail, but as time went on, communication slowed to a complete halt. I never received the required tools or any proper project details. My emails went unanswered, and any attempts to contact the company were met with silence. After waiting for weeks, I realized that I had been scammed.Desperate to recover my money, I turned to TechY Force Cyber Retrieval, a service that specializes in helping victims of online scams. They helped me track the payment and took legal steps to pursue the fraudsters. Through their guidance, I was able to recover the full CAD 4,000. TechY Force Cyber Retrieval worked with my bank to reverse the transaction and liaised with the authorities to trace the scammer's details.This was a hard lesson, and I now know to be highly cautious about online job offers that require upfront payments. It is crucial to research companies thoroughly and avoid any job that seems too good to be true, especially when it involves paying money upfront. WhatsApp https://wa.link/2x6ktp Mail. [email protected]

  • 15.09.26 15:45 lydiassmith567

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  • 15.09.26 15:45 lydiassmith567

    HIRE A HACKER YOUR STOLEN CRYPTO RECOVERY / BTC / USDT / ETH WITH THE HELP OF CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER. I want to share my experience publicly regarding cryptocurrency wallet recovery, I highly recommend you to contact CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER, a professional private investigator in the Bitcoin world. They have a certified expert security team specializing in Bitcoin Recovery Services and have helped many people worldwide recover their lost funds. My wife and I were defrauded by an online manipulator posing as an experienced crypto investment professional. We lost $9.2 Million Stolen BTC in cryptocurrency and were left feeling homeless. After spending hours searching for a reliable crypto recovery service, I discovered CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER online. By patiently explaining my situation to their team, I was able to recover all my funds. Remarkably, my money was returned to my wallet in less than 24 hours. I am extremely grateful to CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER for their excellent assistance—they truly were a godsend in my difficult situation. If you have fallen victim to a cryptocurrency scam, you can reach CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER through the following channels Email: [email protected] OR Call/WhatsApp: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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