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Н Новости

[Перевод] Месть джунов

Краткое примечание о значении "вайб-кодинга" (vibe coding): В этом посте я исхожу из того, что вайб-кодинг повзрослеет, и люди будут использовать его для настоящей инженерии, а версия "отключи мозг" останется только для прототипирования и забавных проектов. Для меня вайб-кодинг просто означает позволить ИИ делать работу. Насколько внимательно вы решите следить за работой ИИ, зависит исключительно от решаемой задачи. Для продакшена вы внимательны; для прототипов вы расслабляетесь. В любом случае, это вайб-кодинг, если вы не написали это вручную.

Еще одно примечание: Месть происходит в самом конце, как в кино.

ОК! Разобравшись с этими административными вопросами, поехали!


Часть 1: Шесть волн

Вайб-кодинг — это причудливое название для кодирования на основе чата, когда вы просите LLM (Большую Языковую Модель) написать код, а затем скармливаете ей результаты и просите больше, в непрерывном цикле. Это сильно отличается от традиционного кодирования или даже кодирования с автодополнением кода.

Чат-кодинг существует уже некоторое время в ассистентах кодирования, но без объединяющего лозунга. Наконец, он его получил, когда в начале февраля прославленный доктор Андрей Карпати, известный, помимо прочего, как сооснователь OpenAI, дал чат-кодингу красивое имя. Он назвал это "вайб-кодинг", и это почти мгновенно стало ситуацией "синее/золотое платье".

Сегодня, на момент — дайте-ка взгляну на часы — прямо сейчас, когда вы это читаете, вайб-кодинг вошел в странное, беспрецедентное, квантовоподобное тройственное состояние:

  1. Вайб-кодинг все еще совершенно невидим для 80% индустрии за пределами Кремниевой долины, которые понятия не имеют, о чем мы здесь говорим. Многие даже не слышали фразу "вайб-кодинг", не говоря уже о "кодинг-агенте". Наверное, они никогда не читают новости? К сожалению, все они рискуют быть застигнутыми врасплох, нет, получить боковой удар от ИИ.

  2. Вайб-кодинг в настоящее время бешено вирусится, растет как сумасшедший по драматической экспоненциальной кривой, попадая в крупные СМИ вроде NYT, наводняя социальные сети, восхваляемый одними, осуждаемый другими. Куча компаний была занята его запретом, как раз когда Google неофициально его внедрял. Все до сих пор спорят, что вообще означает "вайб-кодинг". Но масса людей, и их число растет с каждым днем, считает, что это будущее, которое наступило прямо сейчас.

  3. Чат-кодинг в целом уже совершенно устарел для экспоненциально быстрее растущей группы разработчиков, которые теперь и даром не взглянут на чат-кодинг, даже если бы он горел. Они все еще занимаются вайб-кодингом и действительно получают лучшие "вайбы", чем кто-либо. И все же им абсолютно наплевать на ваш вайб-кодинг — эти долгие диалоги в чате — навсегда, доброго вам дня, сэр, я сказал: Доброго. Дня!

Здесь, в Центре Преувеличений, нам трудно выдумать что-то более сумасшедшее, чем это. Это реально, но разворачивается так быстро, что кажется поистине сюрреалистичным.

Вайб-кодинг находится на крутом подъеме, и чат-кодинг — то, что вы считаете вайб-кодингом, и что я раньше называл CHOP — действительно все еще на подъеме… пока что. Но агентное кодирование — тема этого поста — скоро пронесется мимо чат-кодинга, как будто тот стоит на месте.

К третьему кварталу сегодняшний чат-кодинг для многих станет крайней мерой, запасным вариантом, к которому прибегают, когда не могут позволить себе делать это супербыстрым способом с помощью агентов. И на протяжении всего этого времени, пока чат-кодинг будет затмеваться, вайб-кодинг будет жить.

Я постарался как мог представить, как я лично думаю об этом, на Рисунке 1.

fead53ea6e2032b65d5b609d83fd7f27.png

(Изображение Рисунок 1: Накладывающиеся волны модальностей ИИ-кодирования) Диаграмма на Рисунке 1 изображает шесть перекрывающихся волн программирования: традиционное (2022), основанное на автодополнениях (2023), основанное на чате (2024), кодинг-агенты (1-е полугодие 2025), кластеры агентов (2-е полугодие 2025) и флотилии агентов (2026). На рисунке традиционное кодирование и кодирование на основе автодополнений — две ручные модальности — находятся на спаде, а остальные растут экспоненциально. Начиная с чата, каждая новая волна растет намного быстрее предыдущих. Наконец, рисунок изображает вайб-кодинг как также экспоненциально растущий, но пунктирной линией рядом с остальными, потому что, как мы увидим чуть позже, вайб-кодинг — это не модальность.

В качестве предварительного анонса для нашего обсуждения: "кластеры агентов" — это рабочий термин, который я использую для обозначения возможности разработчиков запускать и плодотворно управлять многими кодинг-агентами параллельно, потенциально даже большим количеством, чем может поместиться на локальной машине разработчика. А "флотилии агентов" — это то, что произойдет, когда у нас появятся ИИ-супервайзеры для конечных узлов (листьев), как показано на Рисунке 2, "Оргструктура на 2026 финансовый год".

d1dd41395843bf3a67d7499a1d0e238c.png

(Изображение Рисунок 2: Оргструктура на 2026 финансовый год) Этот рисунок показывает всех индивидуальных контрибьюторов (разработчиков на конечных узлах) в организации, действующих как линейные менеджеры второго уровня, управляющие ИИ-"менеджерами-агентами", которые сами контролируют группы кодинг-агентов. Например, под руководством одного разработчика-IC одна управляемая группа агентов может заниматься разбором бэклога багов, другая — работой над новыми бизнес-фичами, а третья — долгосрочной архитектурной миграцией. Настоящая ферма агентов!

Это, конечно, лишь грубое приближение того, как все будет разворачиваться, но я думаю, что оно достаточно близко к истине. Мы все предсказывали появление кодинг-агентов "четвертой волны", и они прибыли быстрее, чем большинство из нас ожидало. И уже возможно вручную перейти на пятую волну, хотя и с усилиями. Я запускал двух агентов параллельно. Когда вы это делаете, становится очевидно, что большая часть работы может быть облегчена с помощью агентной помощи.

Как агенты помогают с агентами? Сегодня вы должны заметить, когда агент-работник застрял, закончил работу или сбился с пути, и соответствующим образом его подтолкнуть. Супервайзеры-агенты могут и начнут делать большую часть этого за нас очень скоро. Результат: шестая волна. Разработчики получат возможность поддерживать очереди задач полными в больших флотилиях кодинг-агентов, перемалывающих огромные горные хребты корпоративного легаси-кода. Это будет великолепно.

И эти волшебные флотилии агентов появятся здесь самое позднее к началу 2026 года. Потому что их создание на самом деле не так уж сложно — мы уже очень хорошо умеем распараллеливать работу.

Это наше молниеносное вступление. Впереди еще много всего. Если все это для вас большой сюрприз, то в ближайшие месяцы вас ждут неспокойные времена.


Часть 2: Где вы?

Если вы все еще думаете о предложениях автодополнения кода на основе ИИ как об основном способе использования ИИ программистами и/или все еще измеряете Показатель Принятия Автодополнений (CAR), то вы сидите на кривой, смутно напоминающей динозавра, представляющей Традиционное Программирование на Рисунке 1. Эта кривая стремительно скатывается в устаревание примерно к 2027 году.

У меня плохие новости: автодополнения кода были очень популярны год назад, время, которое сейчас кажется далеким приквелом. Но теперь они являются ИИ-эквивалентом "приговоренного к смерти".

Если вы немного более авангардны, то вы можете думать, что чат-программирование — это то, как все будет развиваться в этом году — имея в виду интерфейсы чат-ассистентов кодирования в IDE, такие как Copilot, Cursor, Sourcegraph и Windsurf. Если вы в этой группе, то у вас все не так уж плохо. Середнячок, похлопайте себя по спине. Вы по крайней мере освоили полезную модальность — чрезвычайно полезную по сравнению с автодополнением кода — и чат все еще набирает популярность.

Но внезапно у нас появилась эта последняя волна, новые кодинг-агенты вроде Aider.chat и Claude Code — и скоро появятся похожие и более симпатичные агенты во всех ваших любимых IDE, подмиг-подмиг, кхе-кхе.

Как только вы попробуете кодинг-агентов и поймете, как быть с ними эффективным, вы никогда не захотите возвращаться назад. Они раздавят чат-кодинг. И самое замечательное, что с агентами вы все еще занимаетесь вайб-кодингом. Вот почему это не модальность: вы можете вайб-кодить с любой неручной ИИ-модальностью: чатом, агентами, кластерами. Пока ИИ делает работу, вы вайбите! Единственное отличие с агентами заключается в том, что вы не встречаетесь с ними так часто.

Теперь, когда появились агенты, мы можем начать видеть закономерности. Каждая последующая волна модальностей, начиная с чата, консервативно примерно в 5 раз продуктивнее предыдущей волны. Чат может быть в 5 раз продуктивнее ручного кодирования, агенты могут быть в 5 раз продуктивнее чата, и так далее. Обратите внимание, что каждая волна, вероятно, выросла бы до 10-кратной продуктивности по сравнению со своей предшественницей, если бы ей не бросали вызов и дали время созреть. Но их постоянно сминают новые, еще более быстрые модальности.

Такова ситуация, какой я ее вижу сегодня. Мы оказались в большой гонке в океане ИИ, хлестаемые все более яростными волнами. Те, кто выживет, оседлают эти волны. Каждая компания находится где-то на одной или нескольких кривых внедрения на Рисунке 1. Где вы?

И это, дорогие друзья, моя очаровательная, диснеевская ментальная модель того, что нас ждет впереди. Я утверждал, что грядущие волны кластеров и флотилий не только неизбежны, но и практически за углом. Вайб-кодинг остается прочной и долговременной чертой этого ландшафта — но не так, как думает большинство людей. Вайб-кодинг просто означает больше никогда не писать код.

Если вы пока со мной согласны, то давайте посмотрим на финансовые последствия. Сначала я быстро введу вас в курс дела, как работают кодинг-агенты — это несложно, вы просто начинаете жечь деньги, и дым делает их умнее. А если вы пока не со мной, я призываю вас пойти поиграть с этими новыми кодинг-агентами. Серьезно. Или посмотрите, как это делает кто-то, кто умеет.

Независимо от того, убеждены вы или скептичны, давайте хотя бы посмотрим, как на самом деле работают эти новые кодинг-агенты. Потому что магии здесь нет.


Часть 3: Руководство для нового владельца верблюда

Давайте посмотрим, почему это событие, которому всего несколько недель от роду, может быстро поставить вашу компанию в затруднительное положение. В настоящий переплет, можно сказать. В неловкую ситуацию.

Мы и раньше слышали заявления о программных кодинг-агентах. Но это другое. Эти "настоящие" кодинг-агенты все еще очень очень новые, им в лучшем случае недели, и они работают только в текстовых терминалах в стиле Unix 1970-х годов. Получить одного из них — это все равно что всю жизнь ходить пешком, а потом кто-то дарит вам бесплатного верблюда. На самом деле, говорят они, бери всех чертовых верблюдов, сколько хочешь. И иметь одного — это потрясающе. Одного. Они великолепны по сравнению с ходьбой пешком повсюду, но они будут плеваться в вас и кусаться, и им требуется большое количество зеленой листовой пищи, в основном пятидесятидолларовых и стодолларовых купюр.

Многие из вас, я знаю это точно, были очень скептичны по поводу чат-кодинга. Я даже слышал, что некоторые разработчики ясно и недвусмысленно заявляли своим менеджерам, что хотят продолжать писать код. Именно для этого они здесь, говорят они. Писать. Код. Они говорят это медленно, как будто думают, что вы глухой, и это поможет. Они утверждают, что никогда не делегируют свою работу по кодированию ИИ. Эй, привет! Я вас вижу.

Всем вам, скептикам, следует бросить все, что вы делаете или держите, просто бросить на землю, и бежать со всех ног к ближайшему верблюду и запрыгивать на него. Скачайте и попробуйте кодинг-агента, в идеале выпущенного после 1 марта 2025 года. Потому что они переворачивают все, что вы знали или думали, что знали о кодировании с ИИ, с ног на голову. Я сам едва мог поверить в то, что видел, всего три недели назад.

Кодинг-агенты в принципе достаточно просты. Они работают так же, как типичная сессия вайб-кодинга в чате, где LLM выполняет большую часть анализа и тяжелой работы, а вы в основном сидите в наушниках. Но с агентами вам не нужно выполнять всю эту уродливую рутину двунаправленного копирования/вставки и связанного с этим промптинга, что является медленной человеческой частью. Вместо этого агент берет это на себя, возвращаясь к чату с вами только тогда, когда он закончит, застрянет или у вас закончатся деньги.

И они часто заходят довольно далеко, совершенно без посторонней помощи. Они просто корпят над своей задачей, пока не сделают ее правильно, бросая токены на проблему, чтобы исследовать пространство по мере необходимости. Человек устраняется как узкое место для 90-99% работы, но в остальном это почти то же самое, что и более быстрая версия вайб-кодинга в чате.

Единственное практическое отличие от чата, помимо стоимости, заключается в том, что агенты могут выполнять гораздо большие подзадачи за раз, потенциально охватывая множество отдельных шагов. В это время контролирующий разработчик освобождается для важной работы, такой как доедание пакетика чипсов и просмотр Hacker News.

Чтобы сделать это конкретным, вы можете сказать кодинг-агенту что-то вроде: "Вот тикет JIRA №<номер>; пожалуйста, пойди и исправь его". Это все, что вам нужно было бы сказать. Агент сначала постарается получить доступ к тикету JIRA: он может поискать инструмент командной строки JIRA, возможно, даже спросит вас, может ли он его скачать. Он может даже написать для себя одноразовую программу для программного получения полей тикета. Мы довольно часто видим, как они пишут одноразовые программы.

Как только агент сможет прочитать тикет, он использует инструменты на вашей машине, изучая ваш код точно так же, как и вы, чтобы отследить ваш баг. Он запрашивает у вас разрешения для каждого инструмента — одно из самых больших замедлений процесса сегодня. Как только агент найдет баг, он предложит исправление, напишет тесты для проверки исправления, запустит эти тесты и внесет любые другие необходимые изменения, чтобы тесты прошли — все это в цикле, без необходимости вашего участия, по большей части.

Эти новые кодинг-агенты могут решать огромные проблемы, создавать еще большие беспорядки и в целом вести себя как сверхъестественно быстрый разработчик-человек, который всегда летит немного вслепую и немного отстает от графика.

Звучит как научная фантастика, но вы можете использовать их прямо сейчас.

Важно понимать, что эти новые агенты пока способны справляться только с задачами скромно-малого и среднего размера за раз. Декомпозиция графа задач, навык, который мы все усвоили в давно минувшие дни чата (декабрь), сегодня так же важна при переходе на вайб-кодинг с агентами. Даже более важна, потому что с агентами так легко переоценить свои силы и быть чрезмерно амбициозным. Они настолько невероятно эффективны, что легко поддаться жадности и задушить гусыню.

Будьте добры к своей гусыне. Не перекармливайте ее. Вам нужно разбивать задачи и тщательно направлять кодинг-агентов. Если вы дадите одному слишком большую задачу, вроде "Пожалуйста, исправь все мои тикеты в JIRA", он бросится на проблему и почти ничего не достигнет. Сегодня они требуют тщательного надзора и вдумчивого выбора проблем. Короче говоря, это норовистые твари.

Но это изменится. Не успеете вы и глазом моргнуть, говоря о тварях, как агенты прокрадутся в вашу IDE, не как верблюды, а как оседланные лошади: в основном эргономическое улучшение, конечно, но долгожданное. Будет приятно иметь инструмент, который не может плеваться дурно пахнущими жидкостями с высокой точностью в объекты на расстоянии до тридцати шести метров.

Каждая итерация инструментов с этого момента будет помогать делать кодинг-агентов проще, более распараллеливаемыми и более мощными. И мы начнем видеть поистине драматические шаги вперед еще чаще в этом году.

Дальше — колесницы. Просто подождите.


Часть 4: Мне сказали, что математики не будет

Этот раздел для CIO (директоров по информационным технологиям) и финансистов. Привет. Спасибо, что дочитали до этого места.

В вашем планировании на 2026 финансовый год, которое вы только что завершили несколько недель назад, сколько операционного бюджета (opex) вы выделили на расходы на LLM для разработчиков? Может, немного? Много? Одна компания сказала мне, что они рассматривали щедрый бюджет в $25 на разработчика в день. Это кажется смелым, как будто много денег. Почти безрассудная сумма.

Что ж, оказывается, они были на правильном пути. Кодинг-агенты — très cher, muy caro, мы говорим об очень, очень дорогих вещах. Они сжигают много токенов LLM, в размере $10-$12 в час по текущим ставкам. Сколько сейчас стоят ваши лицензии на одного пользователя для вашего ассистента кодирования? Тридцать в месяц? Примерно? Может, меньше?

Для целей расчета, как эмпирическое правило, вы можете думать о каждом экземпляре кодинг-агента как о примерно столь же ценном, амортизированном за этот финансовый год, как наличие одного дополнительного младшего разработчика программного обеспечения в штате — при условии, что кто-то (человек или ИИ) держит его в основном занятым 8-10 часов в день.

Это чертовски хорошее эмпирическое правило. Думаю, вы согласитесь, что десять баксов в час — это просто даром за профессионального инженера-программиста, которому просто нужна хорошая няня.

Так что вам будет выгодно заложить в бюджет скорее $80-$100 расходов на LLM на разработчика в день. $30 в день хватит только на три часа поездок на верблюде, а потом ваши разработчики после обеда снова пойдут пешком. Но если вы заплатите полную стодолларовую купюру (Ben Franklin), каждый из ваших разработчиков легко удвоит свою производительность, так как сможет присматривать за двумя агентами и выполнять другую работу попутно. Это очевидная выгода.

Однако.

Грядущая волна, которую я называю "кластеры агентов" — колесница, на которую я намекал в последнем разделе — должна достичь берега к третьему кварталу. Эта волна позволит каждому из ваших разработчиков запускать множество агентов одновременно параллельно, каждый агент будет работать над своей задачей: исправление багов, уточнение задач, новые фичи, разбор бэклога, развертывания, документация, буквально все, что может делать разработчик.

Каждый из ваших разработчиков внезапно станет как множество разработчиков. По крайней мере, те, кто в этом хорош. (Предзнаменование: чую месть.)

Кластеры агентов будут иметь побочный эффект, наконец-то переместив разработку программного обеспечения в облако. Люди предсказывали облачные IDE десятилетиями! Верно? Половина из вас, вероятно, пыталась создать такую в какой-то момент. Они кажутся такой очевидной идеей.

Но всегда было удобнее запускать IDE локально, поэтому облачная разработка так и не взлетела. Волна кластеров агентов во втором полугодии 2025 года изменит это. Ваш рабочий стол разработчика не имеет достаточной мощности для запуска десятков агентов одновременно, не говоря уже о сотнях. Основная часть работы разработчиков переместится в облако практически за одну ночь.

Так что вам, вероятно, понадобится еще немного бюджета на облако.

Запуск N агентов одновременно умножает безобидные ежедневные расходы ваших разработчиков в $10/час на то, чему равно N, и это не считая облачных затрат, только сжигание токенов. Если ваши разработчики в среднем запускают, скажем, пять агентов одновременно — очень консервативное число, так как агенты будут работать в основном независимо, оставляя разработчика свободным для других дел — то эти разработчики теперь тратят по $50/час, или примерно $100 тыс. в год каждый.

Это уже не столько "даром", сколько "ограбление". Мы говорим о том, что каждый разработчик постепенно увеличит свою производительность примерно в 5 раз к четвертому кварталу 2025 года (учитывая время на раскачку), за дополнительные амортизированные затраты всего лишь около $50 тыс. в год в первый год. Кто бы не согласился на такую сделку?

К сожалению, вы почти наверняка не включили $50 тыс. в год на разработчика расходов на LLM в ваш операционный бюджет на 2026 год. Эта ситуация быстро разделит компании на тех, у кого есть бюджеты, и тех, у кого бюджетов нет, и те, у кого есть, ну, будут в выигрыше. У тех, у кого нет, едва ли будет половина. Понимаете?

Говоря более прямо: разработка программного обеспечения теперь — это скоростной поезд, за проезд в котором нужно платить. Если вы не можете позволить себе билет, вы рискуете испытать "красное смещение" и отстать от стаи.


Часть 5: Грядет флот агентов

Вот где становится немного некомфортно. Если вы уже вспотели или чувствуете какое-то сердцебиение, может, сделайте небольшой перерыв, возьмите газировку, стряхните пыль с резюме, что угодно. Не торопитесь. Когда будете готовы. Мы подождем.

ОК, с этого момента вы все обещаете быть спокойными, честное скаутское. Давайте сделаем это.

Волна после кластеров, или "флотилии" агентов, за неимением лучшего слова, позволит вашим разработчикам запускать 100+ агентов одновременно… с помощью еще большего количества агентов. Супервайзеры-агенты смогут управлять группами или "подами" кодинг-агентов, выступая посредниками от их имени и привлекая человека только тогда, когда агенты действительно застрянут.

Новая работа разработчика программного обеспечения в будущем скоро будет заключаться в управлении дашбордами кодинг-агентов и их ИИ-супервайзеров, как показано на Рисунке 2: Оргструктура на 2026 финансовый год. Некоторые могут насмешливо назвать эту работу присмотром за детьми и обвинить ИИ в том, что они маленькие плаксивые роботы-младенцы, которым нужен взрослый, чтобы нарезать им еду на маленькие кусочки, менять подгузники, убирать за ними беспорядок и не давать им вылезать из манежа. Но мы предпочитаем называть это разработкой программного обеспечения. Это наша судьба.

Для вас, людей типа CIO, флотилии позволят вашим разработчикам тратить тысячи долларов в день. Даже если стоимость инференса резко упадет, Парадокс Джевонса приведет к тому, что более высокое использование компенсирует эти затраты. Если вы в это не верите, пойдите попросите показать ваш бэклог багов; он практически бесконечен.

Тысячи в день!? Но это невероятно хорошо потраченные деньги! Ваша инженерная организация наконец-то сможет двигаться так быстро, как вы этого хотите. Можете в это поверить? Это будет как снова стать стартапом. Вы сможете "удивлять и восхищать своих клиентов", как любит говорить Джефф Безос, на элитном уровне, о котором вы никогда и не мечтали.

Но вам придется найти где-то кучу нового бюджета. Может быть, вам повезет, и у вашей компании глубокие карманы. Например, я только что услышал, прямо перед отправкой в печать, что у одного большого знакомого вам бренда есть очень большой "черный" фонд, выделенный на эксперименты с LLM в этом году. Интересно, сколько компаний сделали это и, возможно, тем самым неосознанно избежали бюджетного "черного лебедя" этого года?

Если после поиска мелочи по карманам вы не сможете наскрести дополнительные $50 тыс. на разработчика к концу года, может быть, вы сможете как-то собрать деньги. Вероятно, это сейчас больше на руку стартапам, чем крупным компаниям. Я думаю, эта штука с агентами выровняла многие игровые поля.

Страшная часть этой истории заключается в том, что если вы не можете найти или собрать деньги и хотите оставаться конкурентоспособными, то вам придется пойти на болезненные сокращения, чтобы высвободить бюджет на операционные расходы. И если вы снова посчитаете цифры, есть только один отдел, где имеет смысл сокращать.

Остальное, боюсь, — упражнение для читателя. Я понятия не имею, что произойдет. Я просто какой-то чувак. Может быть, все это преувеличено, и вам нужно будет добавить шесть месяцев к моим прогнозам, прежде чем они сбудутся. Я некоторое время спорил об этом с Claude, и Claude капитулировал и сказал, что это правдоподобно, если я растяну все свои оценки на шесть месяцев. Так что плохие новости могут быть не такими уж плохими!

А теперь хорошие новости! Вы же просили сначала плохие новости, не так ли? Ну, в любом случае, с ними покончено. Дальше все легко и просто, и мы почти закончили. Осталась только сладкая, сладкая месть.


Часть 6: Месть джунов

Оказывается, впереди не все так мрачно. Далеко не так! В индустрии программного обеспечения будет куча рабочих мест. Просто не того типа, который включает написание кода вручную, как какой-то варвар.

Один последовательный паттерн, который я наблюдал за последний год, с тех пор как опубликовал "Смерть младшего разработчика", заключается в том, что младшие разработчики на самом деле были гораздо более охотно готовы внедрять ИИ, чем старшие разработчики. Это не всегда так; несколько человек сказали нам, что их джуниоры боятся его использовать, потому что думают, несколько иррационально, что он отнимет у них работу. (См.: Теория поведенческого сожаления. Спасибо за наводку, доктор Дэниел Рок!)

Но по большей части младшие разработчики — включая (а) новоиспеченных разработчиков, (б) разработчиков, еще учащихся, и (в) разработчиков, которые все еще думают об учебе — все это очень быстро осваивают. Они берут книгу O'Reilly "AI Engineering", которую теперь все разработчики должны знать от корки до корки, и относятся к ней как к профессиональной подготовке. Они все используют чат-кодинг, они все используют ассистентов кодирования, и я знаю, что куча из вас, младших разработчиков, уже использует кодинг-агентов.

Младшие разработчики "вайбят". Они понимают. Мир меняется, и нужно адаптироваться. Поэтому они адаптируются!

В то время как старшие разработчики, ну… испытывают трудности, мягко говоря. У меня нет недостатка в хороших друзьях, старичках вроде меня, которые практически никогда не прикасались к LLM или даже не видели его "голым". Многие другие едва баловались с ассистентами кодирования. Я даже слышу о когортах старших разработчиков, от многих лидеров индустрии, которые занимают категорическую позицию против этого.

Пример: технический директор известного бренда только что сказал мне, что один из их разработчиков прислал им PDF-файл, объясняющий, с цветными слайдами и диаграммами, почему им всем нужно отказаться от ИИ и вернуться к обычному кодированию. Теперь вы видите, что я имел в виду, когда говорил, что у нас самое широкое распределение понимания в истории технологий? Есть люди, которые все еще думают, что это что-то вроде крипты. Ужас!

Послушайте, некоторые старшие разработчики испытывают трудности, без сомнения, потому что они просто заняты. Я понимаю. Но я думаю, что для большинства из них происходит что-то более глубокое. Когда я раньше писал в блоге о языках программирования, я обнаружил, что простое заявление о том, что мне нравится какой-то язык программирования, любой язык вообще, могло навлечь на меня удивительно серьезные неприятности. Люди кричали в тредах, цифровая слюна летела во все стороны. Я не понимал, что происходит. Все это, просто потому что я сказал, что мне нравится язык?

Через несколько лет я понял, что это потому, что они чувствовали, что если люди послушают меня, то все перейдут на этот язык, и тогда старшим разработчикам тоже придется его учить. Они приравнивали необходимость учить что-то новое — и я имею в виду действительно новое, вроде как начинать сначала — к потере работы, медицинской страховки, банкротству и смерти на ступеньках больницы. Это просто человеческая природа в действии, перед лицом больших неопределенных перемен.

Я считаю, что те, кто отказывается от ИИ, к сожалению, слишком много вложили в статус-кво, который они, с прискорбной ошибочностью, приравнивают к гарантии занятости. Они все говорят себе, что ИИ еще предстоит доказать, что он лучше их выполняет X, Y или Z, и поэтому он еще не готов.

Но с моей точки зрения, это они не готовы. Я излагаю все это подробно, друзья мои, чтобы вы могли помочь себе сами.

Независимо от того, почему луддиты не внедряют его, они проиграли. У младших разработчиков преимущество, и битва теперь окончена. Мало того, что младшие разработчики в среднем быстрее внедряют ИИ, но младшие разработчики также — сюрприз! — дешевле. Если компании собираются проводить сокращения, чтобы оплатить победу своих разработчиков с помощью токенов, каких разработчиков, по-вашему, они оставят?

Те, кто держится за старое в отношении ИИ, еще ничего из этого не видят, поэтому младшим разработчикам придется опустить свои световые мечи и прокричать это послание с вершины холма:

Не работа ИИ — доказывать, что он лучше вас. Это ваша работа — стать лучше, используя ИИ.

Иначе вы получите… условие else. Ну вы знаете. Условие else. Лаву. Вы падаете в нее. Почему я должен это разжевывать?

Итак! Вот мы и подошли к концу фильма. Вы справились. Дайте пять, младшие разработчики! ✋ Я не предвидел этого в прошлом году, но я очень впечатлен тем, что вам удалось стать теми, кто выгоняет проигравших с острова. И дайте пять тем из вас, старших разработчиков, кто понял это и уже движется вперед. Вас не так много, как вы думаете, по крайней мере, за пределами Пузыря Залива [Кремниевой долины].

Для остальных из вас… примите это. Будьте как Джуниор. Серьезно. Неважно, кто вы на самом деле, и даже человек вы или компания. Примите это. Пришло время. ИИ здесь.

Здесь, в Sourcegraph, мы каждый день досконально изучаем эту проблемную область. Мы работаем над миром, где все это, несмотря на невероятную дороговизну, поразительно, и скоро неоспоримо, ценно. Для всех, кто решит это использовать, во всяком случае. Армии кодинг-агентов переходят Рубикон, и подключение их к корпоративным IP-активам и кодовым базам — это следующая большая игра в городе. Вот на чем мы сосредоточены.

В более широком смысле, мы все думаем, что рабочие места будут. Много рабочих мест. Мы думаем, что текущая стагнация найма — это просто сигнал компаний о том, что они еще не знают, что делать. Но уже в этом финансовом году компании всех форм и размеров могут быть амбициознее, чем когда-либо прежде, и я говорю это без намека на гиперболу. Если история чему-то учит, от пара до электричества и компьютеров, мы скоро увидим гораздо больше людей, создающих программное обеспечение. Результирующая волна производительности может увеличить национальные ВВП на поразительные суммы, 100% или более.

Но чтобы участвовать, вам придется освоить следующую волну. Как разработчик, черт возьми, даже если вы PM или буквально любая роль, смежная с технологиями — вам нужно догнать тему кодинг-агентов и оставаться в курсе. Хватит мешкать и баловаться. Выясните, как использовать автоматического кодинг-агента прямо сейчас, и не сдавайтесь, пока не научитесь им владеть. Давите на него, пока он не заработает для вас.

И не зазнавайтесь и не пытайтесь давить слишком сильно. Кодинг-агент — это как огромная туннелепроходческая машина, когда вы до этого использовали экскаваторы. Он сильный, конечно, чертовски сильный. Но он дорогой, он все еще может сильно застрять, и вам нужно постоянно тщательно его направлять. И он не настолько быстрый — он не пробурит Ла-Манш за день. Так что не стройте нереалистичных ожиданий на входе. Просто сосредоточьтесь на том, насколько все это отличается от того, что было 2 года назад, когда вышел ChatGPT, а затем поразитесь, насколько это отличается от того, что было 2 месяца назад, когда лучшим, что у нас было, был чат.

Получайте от этого удовольствие. Это не зря называется вайб-кодингом. Оказывается, не писать код довольно легко.

Не попадайтесь в соблазнительную ловушку откладывания работы. Говорить: "Через 6 месяцев будет намного быстрее, так что я просто отложу эту работу на 6 месяцев" — это все равно что говорить: "Я подожду, пока пробки рассосутся". Ваша поездка будет короче, конечно. Но вы приедете последним.

Агенты идут. Огромные флотилии их. Не только кодинг-агенты. Агенты возникают повсюду, во всех бизнесах и производственных технологических процессах. Сегодня утром я разговаривал с крупным клиентом, который уже создал десятки или сотни "ИИ-машин задач" — специально созданных агентов, выполняющих определенные части их гигантских рабочих процессов. Будущее уже наступило. Агенты здесь.

Если вы ищете призыв к действию, то я даю один и тот же совет и людям, и компаниям: переходите на чат. Откажитесь от автодополнений. Прекратите писать код вручную. Узнайте, как работают валидация и верификация в новом мире. Ознакомьтесь с областью и следите за последними достижениями. Прекратите ныть и превратите это в инженерную задачу. Держите руку на пульсе. Вы можете это сделать.

Прежде всего, обратите пристальное внимание на новых кодинг-агентов. Возможно, сегодня они почти непригодны для большинства разработчиков, но это ненадолго. Совсем ненадолго. Это невероятно дорогие машины производительности — и по бросовым ценам по сравнению с людьми. Впереди трудный выбор для всех.

Новая работа "инженер-программист" к концу этого года будет включать мало непосредственного кодирования и много присмотра за агентами. Чем раньше вы с этим смиритесь, тем легче будет ваша жизнь.

Если вы действительно не знаете, что делать, дочитав до этого места, пойдите попросите помощи у младшего разработчика.

Вот, в общем-то, и все. Приближается 2-я годовщина статьи "Читерство — это все, что вам нужно" ("Cheating is all you need"). Абсолютно безумно, как много изменилось с тех пор. Если бы я мог отправить этот пост в прошлое, мое "я" двухлетней давности не поверило бы.

Источник

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  • 18.07.26 23:51 bernalzenaida

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  • 19.07.26 19:53 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 19.07.26 19:53 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 19.07.26 19:54 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 30.07.26 00:04 Ahmed

    A really cool analysis, thank you. I was especially struck by how strictly the order is defined: data processing and formatting come first, with color only at the very end. This really saves you from the typical mistake of "first a pretty palette, then we figure out what the chart is for." And the palette validator with OKLCH + colorblindness check is absolutely fantastic; you almost never see that in regular tools. By the way, while reading about rank-trajectory and the logarithmic scale, I immediately remembered how convenient it is to analyze dynamics on charts in ExpertOption—I've been trading there for quite some time now. When the data is well visualized, decisions are noticeably easier and more relaxed. I also liked the point about "no more than eight colors" and the dual-axis ban. Strict restrictions sometimes actually produce better results than complete freedom. I'll try this approach myself.

  • 30.07.26 17:27 wendytaylor015

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  • 04.08.26 11:05 Kisnoles

    Excellent analysis, thank you. I was particularly struck by how rigidly the skill sets the order: data processing and form come first, with color coming last. This really cures the habit of "first a pretty palette, then we'll figure it out." A palette validator using OKLCH + color blindness + WCAG is something most chart generators lack. And regarding the boundaries of competence, it's very clear. Where there's a self-checking loop (color), you delegate freely. Where there's a heuristic (form, data interpretation), you remain the final filter. This is a universal principle, not just for /dataviz. By the way, when you look at trading dashboards (including those of decent platforms like ExpertOption), it's immediately clear who thought about readability and who just threw in rainbow lines. Tools like this skill could greatly improve the quality of analytics. Thanks again for the detailed analysis – saved.

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  • 23.08.26 20:02 leslieyee

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