Bitcoin’s Best Q1 Since 2013 to ‘Escalate’ If $9.5K Is Broken: Trader
Bitcoin has delivered almost 30% returns for investors since the start of 2020, but warnings are appearing that progress is coming too quickly.
Bitcoin (BTC) investors have already made more on their holdings this quarter than any Q1 since 2014, as data shows a sustained influx of institutional interest.
According to findings from statistics resource Skew Markets, Bitcoin’s gains so far in 2020 amount to just under 30%. In no other quarter in the past six years did markets perform that strongly.
2020 thrashes downbeat Q1 trend
By contrast, Q1 tends to be an underwhelming period for Bitcoiners. 2014 saw 39% losses, while 2015 and 2016 saw BTC/USD drop by 24% and 3% respectively.
Only 2017 and 2019 managed to produce positive moves, but at around 11%, neither comes close to this year. 2011 and 2013 were the years Q1 returns were strongest, at 165% and 570%, according to Bitinfocharts’ price index.
Bitcoin quarterly returns. Source: Skew Markets
The impressive stats come amid renewed faith in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin futures data suggests institutions truly are engaging with the cryptocurrency on a new level as more products hit the market.
Aggregate open interest across futures products is now higher than ever, with Skew recording a total of around $3.7 billion as of Jan. 28. Volume across Bitcoin markets is also on the increase.
“Volume tells all,” trader Scott Melker summarized as he hailed encouraging progress for BTC price versus volume in 2020.
Conversely, regular consumers appear little interested in Bitcoin’s recent price rise over $9,000 — Google search requests remain flat.
Is BTC approaching “greed correction”?
That higher price is also subject to speculation from commentators. In an analysis on Tuesday, trader Tone Vays demanded the $9,000 level hold for at least several days before he considers a bull market in effect.
Another indicator, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index, which charts Bitcoin’s likely price trajectory based on investor sentiment, is flashing bearish.
Currently, with a score of 57, the metric is slanted towards suggesting the market is “due for a correction.”
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me
How much the potential losses would total meanwhile remains a subject of speculation in itself. Bitcoin’s January performance has already turned some analysts decidedly bullish, with several recently telling Cointelegraph that previous lows of $6,000 would not return.
For regular Cointelegraph contributor filbfilb, by contrast, only one major resistance barrier remains to further highs after Bitcoin beat resistance provided by its 200-day moving average (MA).
“200 dma found the support. Next level is the old resistance at $9,555 daily close above there and things could escalate,” he told subscribers of his Telegram trading channel on Tuesday.