Long-term price forecasts based on stock-to-flow remain “intact,” said PlanB after last month’s record red candle.
In a tweet on Tuesday, the creator of the stock-to-flow-based BTC price models said that Bitcoin is behaving like during its 2013 bull run.
After its drop to $30,000 and several retests of that level, concerns are starting to appear over a bigger drop taking BTC/USD toward $20,000 and lower.
This would mean that for the first time, Bitcoin crosses the all-time high from a previous bull market, in this case from 2017.
For PlanB, however, such an event is unlikely. Moreover, recent price action is far from unheard of — in fact, it could just mean that the market is rehashing its 2013 — rather than 2017 — performance.
Uploading the latest incarnation of his stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) model, he highlighted similarities between 2021 and Bitcoin’s behavior from years long past.
“New dot: May close $37,341.. -35% .. we knew bitcoin would not go up in a straight line and several -35% drops are possible (and indeed likely) in a bull market,” he wrote in accompanying comments.
“Starting to look like 2013. S2F(X) model intact.”Bitcoin stock-to-flow cross-asset chart as of June 1, 2021. Source: PlanB/Twitter
S2FX places Bitcoin in multiple phases, in which it goes from a fringe phenomenon to a full-blown asset class. Its ambitious forecasts call for an average BTC price of $288,000 during the current halving cycle, which runs between 2020 and 2024.
The pullback sparked questions over the model’s longevity, which PlanB has always stressed is not guaranteed.
Nonetheless, with its demands still met by the market, the 2013 narrative remains a strong contender for explaining Bitcoin’s wild ride this year.BTC/USD 1-month candle chart from 2013 (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
As Cointelegraph reported, accumulation practices among long-term holders may also result in a “double top” scenario playing out in 2021 — just like in 2013.
For veteran trader Peter Brandt, who is arguing for such a scenario this week, a rush to new all-time highs may come only after a further dramatic pullback. This in itself, however, would also be in line with historical precedent.