70 days of straight "extreme fear" shows no end in sight as Bitcoin price action stays wedged around $20,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) may have avoided fresh losses since falling to $17,600 last month, but sentiment is on the floor.
Now, one classic crypto market mood gauge is showing just how long and hard the average investor has suffered.
While crypto market sentiment was already "comparable to funeral" before the start of 2022, the subsequent price drawdown in Bitcoin and altcoins produced cold feet like never before.
This has now been quantified by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a tool which takes multiple sources into account to create an overall score of how the markets are feeling.
As of July 15, Fear & Greed has spent 70 days in its lowest bracket — "extreme fear" — a marking a new bearish record.
The Index consists of five such brackets, with the others being "fear," "neutral," "greed" and "extreme greed."
A score below 25/100 on its normalized scare corresponds to "extreme greed," and it is that score zone, which has characterized the past two months. The last time that the market was more optimistic than "extreme fear" was on May 5 — days before the Terra LUNA debacle.Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
Commenting on the data, Philip Swift, creator of on-chain analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin, noted that this "extreme fear" period is longer than even those surrounding the 2018 Bitcoin bear market and March 2020 cross-market crash.
Fear & Greed Index: we have now had the longest ever period of Extreme Fear...70days!!!— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) July 15, 2022
Live chart: https://t.co/Jr5151zN7I
Potential for a near-term reversal for #Bitcoin soon? pic.twitter.com/thyUtLeRP9
2022, despite its bearish overtones, has nonetheless not been without its exuberant phases. The last time that the Index was in its "greed" or "extreme greed" zone — which tends to suggest an overheated market — was in March this year.
Looking to what could aid Bitcoin and altcoins' recovery, research firm Santiment meanwhile believes that crypto correlation to traditional assets must come down.
While already dropping, BTC must continue to strike out on its own and avoid the kneejerk reaction to central bank monetary tightening over inflation.
"Crypto grows at its most rapid pace when having very little correlation with equities," it argued in a Twitter post on July 14.
"After yesterday's CPI report, $BTC & alts have been recovering while the SP500 & Gold drop. If they stay uncorrelated, it's a good sign of a potential breakout."Crypto market cap comparison chart. Source: Santiment/ Twitter
A more striking inverse correlation to eye has been between crypto and the U.S. dollar, currently near twenty-year highs against a basket of trading partner currencies.
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