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Эксперт допустил рост биткоина до $140 000 в ближайшие недели

На основании исторических данных экономист Тимоти Петерсон оценил в 50% вероятность роста цены первой криптовалюты выше $140 000 в октябре.

Half of Bitcoin's October gains may have already happened, according to this AI simulation.
There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k
But there is a 43% chance Bitcoin finishes below $136k. pic.twitter.com/LPhFr0mry9

Прогноз базируется на симуляциях с использованием рыночных показателей с 2015 года. Петерсон подчеркнул, что расчеты созданы на «сотнях симуляций с использованием реальных данных, а не на человеческих эмоциях». Потенциальный рост до $140 000 соответствует месячной доходности в 20%, что близко к среднему историческому показателю октября.

На момент написания первая криптовалюта торгуется у отметки $121 600. За сутки актив подешевел на 1,7%, согласно CoinGecko.

Аналитик CryptoQuant Аксель Адлер — младший отметил приток новых покупателей.

Over the past quarter, short-term holders' supply increased by 559K BTC, rising from a low of 4.38 million to 4.94 million BTC.

A significant volume of new buyers entered the market. pic.twitter.com/eW3UsLDWUg

По его данным, за последний квартал предложение цифрового золота в распоряжении краткосрочных держателей выросло на 559 000 BTC — с 4,38 млн до 4,94 млн BTC.

В Glassnode указали на слабую поддержку в диапазоне $121 000-120 000. Ключевой уровень находится около $117 000, где в последний раз было приобретено 190 000 BTC. Снижение к этой зоне может привлечь спрос.

После пробоя $117 000 более 95% циркулирующего предложения биткоина оказалось в прибыли. Это признак фазы эйфории, которая часто ведет к фиксации прибыли и повышает риск, считают специалисты.

Давление продавцов на рынке деривативов значительно снизилось, считает аналитик CryptoQuant под ником Darkfost. Индикатор Net Taker Volume, сравнивающий объемы рыночных ордеров на покупку и продажу, перешел из крайне отрицательной зоны (–$400 млн) к нейтральному уровню.

📉 On a medium-term view, we can see that the selling pressure coming from derivatives has significantly decreased.

—💡 The net taker volume compares the size of sell and buy orders on derivative markets.
⁰When it is largely negative, it indicates that sell volumes are much… pic.twitter.com/KLdLP2TeNO

«Это сигнализирует о смене доминирования между давлением покупателей и продавцов», — отметил эксперт.

Он подчеркнул, что схожая динамика наблюдалась и во время апрельской коррекции, после которой рынок получил заметную поддержку со стороны деривативов.

Чистый приток в биржевые инструменты на базе биткоина за неделю составил $3,55 млрд. Общий объем активов под управлением достиг $195,2 млрд. Для сравнения, у обеспеченных серебром продуктов этот показатель составляет около $40 млрд.

Корпорации продолжают накапливать биткоин в качестве резервного актива. Бразильская компания OranjeBTC, владеющая 3675 BTC на сумму свыше $445 млн, начала торговаться на фондовой бирже.

Резервы цифрового золота на биржах упали до 2,38 млн BTC — минимума за последние пять лет. Снижение доступного на торговых площадках предложения указывает на продолжающееся накопление актива.

Хотя краткосрочная консолидация возможна, устойчивость рынка деривативов и продолжающееся институциональное принятие поддерживают потенциал дальнейшего роста, заключили эксперты.

Напомним, Darkfost сообщил о возвращении розничных инвесторов на рынок на фоне роста первой криптовалюты до нового исторического максимума.

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