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Н Новости

Банк Англии: пузырь в ИИ-секторе способен спровоцировать кризис

Монетарный регулятор Соединенного Королевства предупредил о росте рисков «резкой коррекции рынка» на фоне переоценки ИИ-компаний и угрозы независимости ФРС, сообщает Bloomberg.

В ежеквартальном отчете о финансовой стабильности Банк Англии отметил, что стоимость активов продолжает расти, а кредитные спреды — сужаться. Это происходит на фоне «сохраняющейся значительной неопределенности в отношении глобальных макроэкономических перспектив».

Регулятор считает, что фондовые рынки переоценены, особенно в секторе технологических компаний, работающих с искусственным интеллектом. Этот сектор наиболее уязвим, если «ожидания касательно влияния ИИ станут менее оптимистичными».

Опасения касательно формировании пузыря в сфере искусственного интеллекта усилились на фоне рекордного роста американских акций: индекс Nasdaq 100 с начала года прибавил 18%.

Дневной график индекса Nasdaq. Источник: TradingView.

Рыночный ажиотаж вызвал сравнения с пузырем доткомов конца 1990-х, завершившимся обвалом и чередой банкротств. Однако не все участники рынка разделяют пессимизм. Аналитики Goldman Sachs считают, что индикаторы позиций инвесторов указывают на сохраняющийся оптимизм и ожидания дальнейшего роста.

Банк Англии указал на «существенные узкие места» в развитии искусственного интеллекта, которые могут повлиять на оценку компаний. Среди них: дефицит электроэнергии, данных или ресурсов и концептуальные прорывы, которые способны изменить представления о том, какая инфраструктура необходима для работы ИИ.

Еще одна угроза исходит от Федеральной резервной системы США. Независимость ведомства оказалась под давлением после попыток Дональда Трампа изменить состав совета и его регулярных нападок на Джерома Пауэлла и проводимую им монетарную политику.

«Операционная независимость центрального банка лежит в основе финансовой стабильности. Внезапное или значительное изменение восприятия надежности ФРС может привести к резкому пересмотру стоимости долларовых активов, включая рынок госдолга США, что вызовет рост волатильности, риск-премий и ряд глобальных последствий», — говорится в протоколе заседания Комитета по финансовой политике.

Подобное развитие событий может негативно повлиять на мировые рынки, поскольку ставки заимствований в других странах часто коррелируют с американскими.

Напомним, в октябре OpenAI стала самой дорогой частной компанией в мире с оценкой в $500 млрд.

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