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Н Новости

Артур Хэйес объяснил, как биткоин вырастет до $1 млн

Первая криптовалюта остается в рамках буллрана с целью в $1 млн и с худшим сценарием в виде продолжения коррекции до $70 000. Об этом заявил экс-глава BitMEX Артур Хэйес.

В новом эссе «Поцелуй смерти» эксперт рассмотрел цифровое золото через призму госдолга и способов его погашения.

Специалист назвал губительной разворачивающуюся мелодраму «Дни нашего императора», усомнившись в способности ставшего президентом «шоумена из сферы недвижимости» финансировать политические цели.

Хэйес убежден в готовности Трампа решать проблемы в экономике посредством наращивания заимствований.

В этом контексте интерес представляет взаимодействие Минфина США и ФРС по вопросам увеличения количества денег/кредитов («печатный станок») и снижения их стоимости (процентные ставки).

Бывший CEO BitMEX считает главу Федрезерва Джерома Пауэлла предателем-перебежчиком. Причина его переход к демократам из-за снижения ставки в сентябре 2024 года, когда это не требовалось, для повышения шансов Камалы Харрис на президентских выборах. После победы республиканца председатель ФРС переключился на упорную борьбу с инфляцией.

По мнению Хэйеса, восстановлению «финансового здоровья» США будет мешать то, что Пауэлл и глава Казначейства США Скотт Бессент «служат разным хозяевам».

Последний официально заявил о необходимости увеличения «длины» среднего срока погашения US Treasuries для выхода из долгового кризиса. Для инвесторов важно, что Вашингтон не допустит дефолта, снизив чистую приведенную стоимость обязательств.

В свою очередь Пауэлл и ФРС контролируют количество кредитов и их цену через различный спектр инструментов. Хэйес считает нетривиальной задачей для Трампа убедить Пауэлла начать печатать деньги и снижать ставки, сохраняя мандат ЦБ на борьбу с инфляцией.

«Император» может «сманеврировать» Пауэллом, вызвав рецессию или убеждая рынок в ее наступлении. В этом сценарии глава ФРС снизит ставки, прекратит количественное ужесточение (QT), возобновит количественное смягчение (QE) и/или приостановит дополнительный коэффициент левериджа для банков применительно к покупкам US Treasuries.

Как Трамп может вызвать рецессию в одностороннем порядке? По мнению Хэйеса, своеобразным инструментом выступит Департамент государственной эффективности (DOGE) Илона Маска. Последний способен ограничить госрасходы и через мультипликатор вызвать отрицательные темпы роста ВВП.

Ведомство способно контролировать затраты правительства, останавливая мошеннические платежи и заменяя госслужащих компьютерами. Ежегодные потери от растрат и неэффективности составляют сотни миллиардов долларов, уверен Хэйес.

Трамп и DOGE увольняют тысячи госслужащих, создавая угрозу рынку труда. В 2025 году реализация подобной политики приведет к сокращению рабочей силы на 400 000 человек, отметил специалист.

Экономические последствия уже ощущаются: растет число заявок на пособие по безработице, падают цены на жилье и потребительские расходы. Рынок ожидает рецессии.

В этом отношении Хэйеса заботит вопрос, будет ли Пауэлл действовать проактивно или реагировать, когда возникнут проблемы.

В этом году необходимо пролонгировать $2,08 трлн корпоративного и $10 трлн казначейского долга. Если США столкнутся с рецессией, продление срока обращения облигаций будет практически невозможно. ФРС должна будет действовать, чтобы защитить финансовую систему.

Согласно расчетам эксперта, снижение ставки на каждые 0,25% эквивалентны $100 млрд ликвидности. В случае их обнуления с текущего уровня в 4,25% годовых в финансовую систему поступит $1,7 трлн. Прекращение QT высвободит $60 млрд ежемесячно или $540 млрд до конца года.

Возобновление QE/послабление левериджа для банков предоставит еще от $0,5 трлн до $1 трлн.

В результате, Хэйес рассчитывает на появление от $2,74 трлн до $3,24 трлн. Величина будет эквивалентна 70-80% показателю в эпоху COVID, когда объем стимулов в период с 2020 по 2022 год составил $4 трлн, добавил он.

В ту пору первая криптовалюта подорожала в 24 раза от минимумов 2020 года до максимумов 2021 года. С учетом возросшей капитализации актива сейчас будет справедливо ожидать коэффициент 10x. Таким образом, согласно Хэйесу биткоин вырастет до ~$1 млн.

Ключевые предпосылки:

В отношении крипторезерва экс-глава BitMEX остался скептичен. По его мнению, для реального влияния на котировки потребуется, чтобы правительство начало покупать цифровые активы. Для этого Трампу нужна помощь республиканцев в увеличении лимита госдолга или переоценке золота. Эксперт призвал «не спешить с этим ралли».

Согласно Хэйеcу, текущая динамика биткоина предупреждает о кризисе ликвидности, несмотря на высокие индексы фондового рынка США. Коррекция Уолл-стрит, вызванная опасениями рецессии, неизбежна. В подобных условиях первая криптовалюта пройдет через американские горки, спрогнозировал специалист.

Паника и действия ФРС не заставят себя ждать. Цифровое золото достигнет дна, а затем начнет расти, пока фиатная финансовая система будет в хаосе.

Минимум в худшем случае исторический максимум предыдущего цикла в $70 000. Хэйес допускает, что эта отметка останется недостижимой. Указанный сценарий станет возможным в случае падения индексов S&P 500 и Nasdaq 100 на 20-30% от ATH.

«Независимо от этого, мы будем осторожно „откусывать от дна” без плечей в ожидании кризиса фиатных финансовых рынков, прежде чем биткоин достигнет $1 000 000», — заключил специалист.

Напомним, в феврале Хэйес допустил снижение курса первой криптовалюты до $70 000 вследствие оттоков из биржевых фондов.

Ранее CEO CryptoQuant Ки Ен Джу спрогнозировал длительную консолидацию актива в широком диапазоне (например, $75 000-100 000), как это наблюдалось в начале 2024 года перед возвратом котировок на растущую траекторию.

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    God bless Capital Crypto Recover Services for the marvelous work you did in my life, I have learned the hard way that even the most sensible investors can fall victim to scams. When my USD was stolen, for anyone who has fallen victim to one of the bitcoin binary investment scams that are currently ongoing, I felt betrayal and upset. But then I was reading a post on site when I saw a testimony of Wendy Taylor online who recommended that Capital Crypto Recovery has helped her recover scammed funds within 24 hours. after reaching out to this cyber security firm that was able to help me recover my stolen digital assets and bitcoin. I’m genuinely blown away by their amazing service and professionalism. I never imagined I’d be able to get my money back until I complained to Capital Crypto Recovery Services about my difficulties and gave all of the necessary paperwork. I was astounded that it took them 12 hours to reclaim my stolen money back. Without a doubt, my USDT assets were successfully recovered from the scam platform, Thank you so much Sir, I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover for any of your bitcoin recovery, digital funds recovery, hacking, and cybersecurity concerns. You reach them Call/Text Number +1 (336)390-6684 His Email: [email protected] Contact Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Via Contact: [email protected] His website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 13.10.25 01:11 elizabethrush89

    God bless Capital Crypto Recover Services for the marvelous work you did in my life, I have learned the hard way that even the most sensible investors can fall victim to scams. When my USD was stolen, for anyone who has fallen victim to one of the bitcoin binary investment scams that are currently ongoing, I felt betrayal and upset. But then I was reading a post on site when I saw a testimony of Wendy Taylor online who recommended that Capital Crypto Recovery has helped her recover scammed funds within 24 hours. after reaching out to this cyber security firm that was able to help me recover my stolen digital assets and bitcoin. I’m genuinely blown away by their amazing service and professionalism. I never imagined I’d be able to get my money back until I complained to Capital Crypto Recovery Services about my difficulties and gave all of the necessary paperwork. I was astounded that it took them 12 hours to reclaim my stolen money back. Without a doubt, my USDT assets were successfully recovered from the scam platform, Thank you so much Sir, I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover for any of your bitcoin recovery, digital funds recovery, hacking, and cybersecurity concerns. You reach them Call/Text Number +1 (336)390-6684 His Email: [email protected] Contact Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Via Contact: [email protected] His website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 01:15 tyleradams

    Hi. Please be wise, do not make the same mistake I had made in the past, I was a victim of bitcoin scam, I saw a glamorous review showering praises and marketing an investment firm, I reached out to them on what their contracts are, and I invested $28,000, which I was promised to get my first 15% profit in weeks, when it’s time to get my profits, I got to know the company was bogus, they kept asking me to invest more and I ran out of patience then requested to have my money back, they refused to answer nor refund my funds, not until a friend of mine introduced me to the NVIDIA TECH HACKERS, so I reached out and after tabling my complaints, they were swift to action and within 36 hours I got back my funds with the due profit. I couldn’t contain the joy in me. I urge you guys to reach out to NVIDIA TECH HACKERS on their email: [email protected]

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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