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Аналитики обозначили причины обвала крипторынка

Обвал криптовалют 11 сентября не будет иметь долгосрочных фундаментальных последствий, а его причиной стало сочетание ряда технических факторов. Об этом заявили авторы ресурса The Kobeissi Letter.

It's official:

Crypto just saw its LARGEST liquidation event in history with 1.6 MILLION traders liquidated.

Over $19 BILLION worth of leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, 9 TIMES the previous record.

Why did this happen? Let us explain.

(a thread) pic.twitter.com/dHbkfNjrVs

Крах рынка спровоцировал каскад ликвидаций, суточный объем которых достиг рекордных $19,3 млрд. Первая криптовалюта впервые в истории зафиксировала дневную свечу на $20 000.

В числе факторов, вызвавших падение цифровых активов, аналитики назвали «чрезмерное кредитное плечо и риск», а также заявление президента США Дональда Трампа о введении 100% пошлин на импорт из Китая.

Кроме того, глава государства опубликовал свой пост после закрытия традиционных рынков и сокращение ликвидности создало благоприятную почву для повышенной волатильности.

Эксперты также обратили внимание на сильный перекос в сторону длинных позиций в объеме ликвидаций. На большинстве крупных бирж, за исключением Bitfinex, доля лонгов превышала 90%.

При этом, по наблюдению аналитиков, распродажа на рынке началась примерно за час до первых угроз Трампа в адрес Китая. Заявление президента ускорило падение в ходе, вероятно, уже начавшейся коррекции.

«Мы считаем, что этот обвал был вызван сочетанием нескольких внезапных технических факторов. Он не имеет долгосрочных фундаментальных последствий. Техническая коррекция давно назрела. Уверены, торговая сделка будет достигнута, а криптовалюта остается сильной. Мы настроены оптимистично», — заключили они.

Аналитики Santiment также считают, что причины падения рынка кроются не только в заявлении Трампа. По их мнению, розничные трейдеры поспешили найти единичное событие, ставшее фактором краха, что просто является признаком «типичного рационализаторского поведения».

Однако в краткосрочной перспективе торговые отношения между США и Китаем будут играть ключевую роль в настроениях криптотрейдеров, признали эксперты. Позитивные новости могут повысить аппетит к риску, тогда как в случае негативного фона стоит ожидать потока прогнозов о «биткоине ниже $100 000».

Тем временем криптовалютный индекс страха и жадности упал до 24 пунктов, хотя неделю назад достигал 74. Текущее значение сигнализирует об «экстремальном страхе» на рынке.

В Santiment отметили, что падение первой криптовалюты произошло синхронно с фондовым рынком. В периоды турбулентности трейдеры зачастую обращаются к материальным активам вроде серебра или золота. Драгметаллы продолжили рост.

«Криптовалюты, такие как биткоин, не застрахованы от макрополитических потрясений. Хотя многие рассматривают их как альтернативные или пограничные активы, они по-прежнему крайне чувствительны к склонности к риску. Нравится нам это или нет, биткоин ведет себя скорее как рисковый актив, чем как безопасное убежище в периоды национальной напряженности», — заключили аналитики.

Падение крипторынка на самом деле может означать раннюю стадию бычьего тренда, считает криптотрейдер Алекс Беккер.

По его мнению, резкая коррекция была отчасти вызвана «небывалым нетерпением» инвесторов в последние несколько недель.

«Думаю, что продажа сейчас — это, пожалуй, самая глупая вещь, которую можно сделать», — отметил он.

Криптоаналитик Бенджамин Коуэн также с оптимизмом оценил перспективы биткоина, указав, что цифровое золото восстановило доминирование до уровня 60%.

Large liquidation cascade yesterday sent #BTC dominance soaring above 60%.

I still think in the short-term it continues to climb https://t.co/xmxP5ZWEo7 pic.twitter.com/JCZ0O6OztN

«Пришло время для следующего этапа роста биткоина», — заявил основатель и CEO Jan3 Сэмсон Моу.

Экономист Тимоти Петерсон в комментарии для Cointelegraph осторожно предположил, что криптовалюта, возможно, войдет в «период охлаждения». Цифровое золото продолжит восходящее движение через три-четыре недели.

«Но, возможно, более медленными темпами, чем раньше», — добавил он.

Напомним, в CryptoQuant считают, что биткоин сохраняет потенциал роста. Трейдер Питер Брандт обозначил в качестве перспективы отметку $185 000. Аналитик Фрэнк Феттер полагает, что зона перекупленности в первой криптовалюте наступит около $180 000.

Подписывайтесь на ForkLog в социальных сетях

Рассылки ForkLog: держите руку на пульсе биткоин-индустрии!

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