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Аналитик: рынок биткоина избавился от «слабых рук»

Новые инвесторы в первую криптовалюту продают монеты в убыток. Это привело к «здоровой рыночной встряске», считает аналитик под ником Crazzyblockk.

Weak Hands Fold: New Bitcoin Investors Capitulate, Fueling a Healthy Market Shakeout

“The market is purging its weakest hands, transferring their BTC to holders with a lower cost basis and higher conviction.” – By @Crazzyblockk pic.twitter.com/l5jZVpOOGJ

По его словам, опытные держатели поглощают это предложение.

Инвесторы, владеющие биткоином менее месяца, фиксируют средний нереализованный убыток в 3,5%. В ответ они продают активы. Ончейн-данные подтверждают снижение предложения в этой когорте трейдеров. Crazzyblockk назвал это классической капитуляцией из-за страха.

В то же время краткосрочные держатели (STH) остаются в плюсе. Их совокупная нереализованная прибыль составляет 4,5%. Crazzyblockk объяснил, что это не признак паники. Снижение общего предложения STH — прямое следствие капитуляции «туристов».

Аналитик считает это позитивным сигналом. Рынок избавляется от «слабых рук». Биткоины переходят к более уверенным инвесторам с низкой ценой входа. По словам Crazzyblockk, такая встряска создает прочную базу поддержки для будущего роста цены.

Глава GLJ Research Гордон Джонсон заявил, что первая криптовалюта находится под угрозой обвала на 65%.

This isn’t a question of ‘paper hands.’ The O/N RRP is now fully drained — something we haven’t seen since it surged in 2021. Thus, unless the Fed abruptly abandons QT & reverts to QE, US liquidity is going to contract for the 1st time since 2022. And the last time that happened,… https://t.co/L2kGsyJy2j pic.twitter.com/fnzX1tENIC

По его мнению, это может произойти из-за сокращения долларовой ликвидности в финансовой системе США.

«Речь не идет о „бумажных руках“», — подчеркнул Джонсон.

Эксперт обратил внимание на полное исчерпание механизма обратного РЕПО o/n. Индикатор не опускался до нуля с 2021 года.

По словам Джонсона, это событие указывает на грядущее сокращение ликвидности впервые с 2022 года. Избежать такого сценария можно, только если Федрезерв США откажется от политики количественного ужесточения и вернется к смягчению.

Аналитики Glassnode подтверждают ослабление рынка. Согласно их отчету переход от эйфории к «хрупкости» выражается так:

Спотовые биткоин-ETF фиксируют отток средств шесть торговых дней подряд, отметили аналитики Santiment.

📉 Bitcoin ETF's are on their longest outflow streak (6 market days) since the tariff fears peaked back in early April. Increasingly, there are cases to be made that these inflows & outflows are retail-driven, and not just institutional-driven like they were early on.

😱 Large… pic.twitter.com/bM6t19gfgM

По их словам, растет число доказательств того, что движущей силой потоков капитала становятся розничные трейдеры. Ранее эти потоки в основном обеспечивали институциональные игроки.

Аналитики объяснили, что розничные инвесторы склонны к эмоциональным решениям. Они выводят средства из ETF, когда считают, что рынок достиг своего пика. Такие действия могут временно оказывать давление на цену биткоина.

Однако подобное поведение часто указывает на формирование локального дна, как это было в апреле, заключили в Santiment.

Напомним, с 16 по 22 августа инвестпродукты на базе цифровых активов потеряли $1,43 млрд, что стало крупнейшим оттоком средств с марта.

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