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Аналитик предупредил о возможном обвале биткоина на 70%

Материал опубликован исключительно в ознакомительных целях и не является инвестиционной рекомендацией. ForkLog не несет ответственности за инвестиционные решения читателей.

Первая криптовалюта может столкнуться с падением на 70% в рамках следующей медвежьей фазы рынка. Таким мнением поделился основатель ITC Crypto Бенджамин Коуэн.

По его словам, на потенциальную коррекцию указывают исторические данные. В предыдущих циклах цена цифрового золота снижалась на 94%, 87% и 77% от пика.

«Я бы сказал, что возможно падение на 70% от того абсолютного максимума, который достигнет биткоин. Обязательно ли это должно случиться? Нет, но уроки истории подсказывают, что такую вероятность стоит учитывать», — сказал Коэун.

Последний исторический максимум первой криптовалюты зафиксирован на уровне $124 128, который она достигла 14 августа. На момент написания актив торгуется около $116 900.

Исследователь Аксель Адлер — младший оценил вероятность достижения биткоином ATH в ближайшие две недели в 70%. Он указал на сбалансированные настроения среди инвесторов.

STH MVRV Z-Scores (155D & 365D) are hovering near zero — the market is neither overheated nor oversold, essentially balanced.

BTC price sits just above STH Realized Price, setting the stage for 1–2 weeks of consolidation with a potential push to ATH.

Uptober incoming 🌊 pic.twitter.com/hFaycSGxRy

По словам эксперта, MVRV для краткосрочных держателей колеблется около нуля. При этом криптовалюта торгуется выше реализованной стоимости этой группы участников рынка. Такая ситуация предполагает фазу консолидации на одну или две недели перед «новым прорывом к ATH».

Потенциал роста подтверждают данные по деривативам. Аналитик подчеркнул, что биткоин-фьючерсы стабильно торгуются с премией к спотовому курсу. Семидневная база превышает 30-дневную — эта структура обычно связана с бычьими трендами.

«Базовый сценарий (~70%) на ближайшие две недели: ступенчатый восходящий тренд или боковое движение. Если в следующие несколько дней появится кластер зеленых сигналов подтверждения тренда, это будет указывать на приток новых длинных позиций и повысит вероятность достижения нового исторического максимума», — написал Адлер-младший.

По данным Glassnode, тепловая карта биткоина показывает концентрацию предложения вокруг $117 000. Аналитики назвали этот уровень ключевой зоной сопротивления.

Преодоление указанной отметки станет сигналом к дальнейшему росту и потенциально новым максимумам, отметили эксперты. В противном случае биткоин ждет затяжная консолидация или сжатие.

В Glassnode также указали на положительные притоки в спотовые биткоин-ETF. По их словам, это подчеркивает институциональный спрос как ключевой фактор поддержки рынка.

По итогам 18 сентября инструменты привлекли $163 млн, доведя совокупную сумму инвестиций за четыре торговые сессии до $664 млн. На прошлой неделе общий приток превысил $2,3 млрд — максимум с середины июля.

Аналитики CryptoQuant обратили внимание на рост резервов криптобиржи Coinbase в биткоине и Ethereum. Показатель впервые за четыре года достиг $112 млрд.

Coinbase Reserves Hit $112B in BTC, ETH & Stablecoins — Highest in 4 Years

“In past cycles, rising reserves on major exchanges like Coinbase have often coincided with higher market liquidity and bullish price momentum.” – By @CryptoOnchain pic.twitter.com/64VDXP51i5

«В прошлых циклах рост резервов на крупных торговых площадках вроде Coinbase часто совпадал с увеличением рыночной ликвидности и бычьим импульсом цен», — подчеркнули эксперты.

Напомним, макроаналитик Люк Громен объяснил философию биткоина как цифрового золота. По его словам, ключевое преимущество криптовалюты — отсутствие доходности.

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